Here are the numbers from my January 3, 2009 searches in the Lancaster County MLS:
Active Listings UA Listings Ratio Prior year Ratio 2004/05 Ratio 2001 Ratio
January 3, 2009 2,660 427 16.05% 21.29% 85.24% 23.10%
December 4, 2008 2,848 518 18.19% 24.15% 8.74% 35.31%
November 7, 2008 2,903 593 20.43% 20.43% 95.00% 33.91%
October 4, 2008 2,879 652 22.65% 28.76% 90.55% 33.36%
September 6, 2008 2,819 680 24.12% 32.90% 95.09% 35.99%
August 9, 2008 2,852 714 25.04% 41.02% 103.22% (not recorded)
July 5, 2008 2,736 798 29.17% 44.61% 109.65% 39.34%
June 3, 2008 2,664 886 33.25% 49.34% 129.82% 41.86%
May 6, 2008 2,638 922 34.95% 48.47% 128.52% 43.30%
2008 Ended with a lot of people saying things like "I'm glad that's over" and "that was a rough year, I hope 2009 is better".
The Intelligencer Journal/Lancaster New Era reported January 1, 2009 that the stock market finished the year at 8776.39, a 33.84% decline for the year. That market decline has unnerved many people as they look at their retirement and investment portfolio. Jobless claims have risen sharply recently nationwide, and even in Lancaster where we have been insulated well from much of the most painful unemployment and housing market declines we are seeing an increase in jobless claims. Recently economists declared that we have been experiencing a recession since December 2007.
Someone ask recently about having their house reassessed due to the market decline. In Lancaster we have not seen any significant decline in home values. Recently there were fewer homes changing ownership in Lancaster each month compared to prior years. For example, the Lancaster County Association of Realtors publication, House Calls, reported in the January 2009 issue that there were 281 homes sold in November 2008, down 35.1% from 433 that sold in November 2007. For the first 11 months of 2008 the number of homes sold is down 23.0% from the same period in 2007. The lower number of homes sold does not identify an overall value decrease in what those homes sold for. For example, a home that sold for $200,000 in 2006 may still sell for a similar amount today, not necessarily much above or below the $200,000.
Some good news is that oil prices have dropped from a high of approximately $145/barrel in early summer to $96/barrel in September and to $68/barrel in October and now are down to $48.42/barrel today as reported on CNBC. Gasoline prices at the pump have declined from around $4.00/gallon to the $1.659/gallon I paid today.
Interest rates are in the 5% to 6% range for 30 year fixed rate mortgages. There are lenders offering loans.
The election is over and Mr. Obama plans to be sworn in on January 20 and is pressing for another stimulus package to bolster the economy. There is a huge amount of enthusiasm for his presidency as evidenced by the record number of people expected to come to Washington DC for the inauguration.
Recently we have seen buyers seeking bargains in the housing market, but sellers are not always agreeing to lower prices and are holding their properties in anticipation of things getting better. As I mentioned in October, that alone is a positive indicator of belief in the future.
The United States and other countries are putting together various stimulus packages. With all that money flowing into the system, I could envision that we soon see a strong resurgence in the real estate and financial markets in the next year or two.
Now is a great time to buy a property!
Prepared by: J. Merle Sollenberger, GRI, CRS, Associate Broker, Realtor®
Prudential Homesale Services Group
150 North Point Boulevard, Lancaster, PA 17601
717-560-9100 www.msollenberger.com msollenberger@topproducer.com
Licensed in PA
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