COME OUT, COME OUT, WHOEVER YOUR ARE! EVERYONE WANT'S TO KNOW YOUR OPINION.

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COME OUT, COME OUT, WHOEVER YOUR ARE! EVERYONE WANT'S TO KNOW YOUR OPINION.

IF YOU DISAGREE WITH WHAT i WRITE, WRITE A POST TO YOUR BLOG AND STATE YOUR POSITION, OPINION, IDEAS. I CAN BE PERSUADED!

After all, I must see some light at the end of the tunnel. I'm still here!

My recent posts about bankruptcy for home owners with negative equity and many other posts about the mortgage mess. The post about the new legislation presented to permit bankruptcy judges to modify mortgage instruments has generated a bit of private mail. Also, my post with predictions for the real estate industry in 2009 also generated some mail suggesting that I should be more positive. WHY? The writers never say why.

I appreciate your mail. Our messages on ActiveRain are not always clear.

Fact is,I wrote the predictions for 2009 at the request of several ActiveRain friends who had seen the predictions for 2008. The reason I wrote the post is because I wanted to give my opinions about the coming year and, most importantly WHY.

I read so many pieces that provide wonderful encouragement about a rosy future for real estate sales. However they never say WHY. If they can see something in the data that I can't, I wish they'd elaborate and say WHY. Just being a good person or even a good agent doesn't mean that you'll be a successful one in the real estate business. Nor will the market improve any time soon just because we want it to happen. One thing for sure. When interviewing with brokers to join a brokerage, few new agents have a clue about what it will take to generate business.

Real estate sales is not a job where an employee is hired to perform specific tasks in return for a specific income. If a new agent hasn't established a following, established marketing systems or otherwise figured out how to make a living in the real estate business, when the market is not good, why hide the facts??

IF YOU HAVE A DIFFERENT OPINION ABOUT THE MARKET, WRITE IT, POST IT AND DEFEND YOUR POSITION, or NOT. I can understand folks not wanting the public to read bad news on ActiveRain. However, we can't stop the newspapers, TV, Internet, radio or magazines from publishing writings about the state of the economy. Just think. If reading ActiveRain causes a consumer to think twice about accepting another credit card. . . . . .

Some recent posts that generated a significant number of personal messages objecting to the positions, predictions, views and opinions, but not always WHY.

mortgage mess: MORTGAGE MODIFICATION U.S. GOVERNMENT STYLE and OTHER PRUIENT PLEASURES. - 01/09/09 05:55 PM

* * * * HARD CORE REAL ESTATE TALK * * * *
I KNEW IT, I KNEW IT, I KNEW IT! ! ! !
THE MORTGAGE MODIFICATION OFFERED BY FHA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS WAS DESIGNED TO FAIL.
Read on Inman today. . . . .
"Many ... (15 comments)

mortgage mess: CITIGROUP MAY BE COMING ON BOARD WITH THE BILL TO PERMIT BANKRUPTCY JUDGES TO MODIFY MORTGAGE LOAN BALANCES! - 01/08/09 04:21 PM

* ALERT * ALERT * ALERT
ONE SMALL STEP for the consumer???
"Citigroup became the first major bank to support a controversial plan to let bankruptcy judges alter mortgages in a effort to prevent more housing foreclosures." More. . . . CNBC - 4:22 P.M. January 8, 2009.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
This ... (24 comments)

mortgage mess: PREDICTIONS FOR 2009 - DRIVE THE CAR ANOTHER YEAR AND STAY OUT OF THE MALL. - 01/08/09 03:24 PM

                              * * * *   DANGER! HARD CORE REAL ESTATE TALK AHEAD * * * *
PREDICTIONS FOR THE REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY IN 2008
                                             * * * * DANGER! HARD CORE REAL ESTATE TALK AHEAD. * ** *
REAL ESTATE IN 2009 WILL BE . . . . . ?
... (53 comments)

mortgage mess: ANOTHER CASUALTY OF THE MORTGAGE MESS! Negative Equity Forcing Foreclosures. - 01/08/09 06:20 AM

SET THE STAGE:
Homeowner transferred to new job location across the country. Home listed for sale and family renting in new area.
Paid 3 years ago: $630,000 with 80/10/10 financing. Amount owed: $502,000 1st and $63,000 2nd. Payment on 1st - $3,021 increasing to $3,698 this month. Market Value Today: $450,000. ... (47 comments)

mortgage mess: EUREKA - AT LAST - A VOICE IN THE WILDERNESS. Rep. Brad Miller, D-N.C. introduces "cramdown" legislation. - 01/05/09 07:17 AM

SOMEONE ON CAPITOL HILL IS LISTENING AND THINKING.
REPORTED ON INMAN THIS A.M.
"Rep. Brad Miller, D-N.C., said he plans to introduce a bill today allowing bankruptcy "cramdowns" of mortgage loan principal, the Wall Street Journal reported. Sen. Richard Durbin, D-Ill., plans to sponsor similar legislation in the Senate, the paper ... (37 comments)

mortgage mess: DON'T BLAME THE AMERICAN CONSUMER FOR THE STATE OF THE HOUSING MARKET OR THE ECONOMY. - 01/03/09 06:09 AM

THEY ARE CONSUMERS, NOT HOUSING MARKET ANALYSTS.
A recent comment that the American consumer had marginal ability to pay and didn't care is typical of many posts and comments that I read.
I dispute that premise.
The American family does care. They are, however, unsophistacated in financial matters. Tell a family that ... (66 comments)

mortgage mess: REALITY CHECK. DON'T BELIEVE FOR ONE MINUTE THAT LOWER INTEREST RATES WILL HELP THAT MUCH. - 01/01/09 06:50 AM

AN ARTICLE IN INMAN today describes why lower interest rates won't solve the housing industry mess.
"But tightened underwriting standards will disqualify many with less-than-stellar credit scores, and an estimated 12 million homeowners who owe more than their homes are worth may also find it difficult to purchase or refinance a home." Emphasis added. ... (42 comments)

mortgage mess: ALERT! ALERT! ALERT! TREASURY WILL BUY MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES! - 12/30/08 03:46 PM

* * * * HARD CORE REAL ESTATE TALK HOUR * * * *
4:30 p.m. Tuesday, December 30, 2008.
JUST ANNOUNCED. The Treasury is going to print some money to save the investors who purchased all of the worthless Mortgage Backed Securities.
This will do NOTHING, absolutely NOTHING ... (52 comments)

mortgage mess: EUREKA! I'VE GOT IT! WHY THE MORTGAGE COMPANIES WANT THE HOME OWNER TO BE IN ARREARS. - 12/29/08 08:56 AM

** FROM THE DESK OF THE CZAR OF COMMON SENSE IN GOVERNMENT **
WHY DID NOT THE GOVERNMENT MANDATE MORTGAGE BALANCE REDUCTION FOR BANKS RECEIVING TARP MONEY???
IN THE SPIRIT IF A TRUE BELIEVER IN THE CONSPIRACY THEORY, it all makes sense now.
James Downing's post this a.m. DARN IT - I got ... (108 comments)

Courtesy, Lenn Harley, Broker, Homefinders.com, 800-711-7988.

Real estate in Maryland and Northern Virginia, services for home buyers.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

Want to learn more about Loudoun County, VA? Join Loudoun County, VA on Facebook!

Posted by Lenn Harley, Real Estate Broker, Virginia & Maryland on 01/13/2009 05:24 AM

Comments (103)

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103 Comments on COME OUT, COME OUT, WHOEVER YOUR ARE! EVERYONE WANT'S TO KNOW YOUR OPINION.

JAN

2009

Lynn, I love your posts.

Keep posting.

Lenn, I very much like your being pragmatic. The rosy glasses are fine for making the best of a situation but definitely not being delusional or high on some optimism kick. Reality is far better to look at in the cold light of day than sugar coating things. Great thoughts. And those strong dissenters should write their own posts if they differ from what you say significantly.

I am skipping past the rose colored glass wearing pipe smokers and the reason for it is because they clearly don't know what they are talking about. It's that simple.

The reason most people won't tell you that they think you are wrong in the comments of your own posts is probably because they think it will be rude. I have some challenges on a public post (meant to be a lead generator) in telling the author that I disagree with their stance on an issue. Every once in a while, I go to private email to explore their way of thinking a little further. It's rare, though.

Lenn,

There are 2 positions to take on the 2009 outlook:

There's the Pollyanna Approach you know, everything is wondeful.

And the Pragmatic Approach - show me some long term trend that things are improving

As always, the answer is probably somewhere in between

Lenn, I think you call it as you see it and you present your material respectfully. I have learned (I think) that if I am going to disagree with someone else's opinion then I better know why. Sounds like "debate 101" but, if your post indicates anything, it seems as though some people disagree just to disagree.

We need a balanced approach. One problem we have now with the national news media is they concentrate on the negative news. I guess this draws more readers. It tends to scare buyers away when they are hammer several days in a row with bad news. They think the sky is falling again (Chicken Little Theory).

Your Queen Creek Real Estate Specialist

http://www.QueenCreekRealEstateSolution.com

Lenn... good points! What we need to be putting out there, on Active Rain and everywhere else is our professional opinions backed up by research and facts. Doesn't matter if the picture is gloomy or rosy, Our clients, and the rest of the public, need someone to provide them with accurate information upon which to base decisions, and they certainly won't get that from the mainstream or secondary media pundits. I've said before, and will say again... "Never confuse the NEWS with the TRUTH!"

signature

Lynn, it's one thing to try to keep a positive attitude but you still can only play the cards dealt to you. After the cards are dealt, is it YOU who must decide how to play it. The market is what it always is...the market. Whether it's good, bad or indifferent, we still choose how to play it and the market IS what it is. Thanks for your insights because while the market is what it is, there is still strategy, just like in poker, as to how you play a particlar hand (market) and that choice is up to the player (agent!)

keep posting - 2009 is the year of reality in my opinion

Good Morning Lenn and Happy New Year. Out of the nine posts you wrote, I feel a bit ashamed that I only read one . I will read the rest of these and comment. I for one trust your guidance and your vision. I rarely ever disagree. But then ,how could I. You have demonstrated over the many years of your experience that you give guidance based on learned wisdom. I so value your insight and your vast knowledge and experience.

I will read and comment on all these posts later this morning. You very much help shape my own perspective in this industry and I am so grateful to you that you care so much and set such a high and replicable standard for so many of us. I also value your friendship as a 'true' treasure.

Great post Lenn. All too often in real estate persons confuse facts with negativity. I get emails about them, but like you, if you disagree say why. Let me hear your side of the story, write an opposing piece...etc.

There is also a lot of persons here on Active Rain that think the press is negative, well maybe they just want to put both hands over their ears and not hear anything. There is a lot of news taking place wiht real substance these days, and we need to see as much of the big picture to form strategies to survive this. If the news is that sales are off 50%, that is a fact, it is a quotable statistic, it isn't bad news. Tomorrow it will be a historic fact. The fact of the matter is that many do not want others to rain on their happy parade in life. That does not alter the facts. They either need to act as adults, keep an open mind so they can gain knowledge or embrace mentally a different concept. That is the key of learning. If not, they need to live their own pretend happy life in solitude by avoiding situations they cannot mentally handle or take another happy pill.

Glad you included the other posts --- now I have my reading assignment for the day. Thanks!

Lenn- I think it's too bad when members feel they have to respond to the author, personally. I think we'd all like the chance to read differing points of view.

I don't usually disagree with what you write, but if/when I do, I would state an alternative viewpoint, in the comments, so other people could weigh in. If the opposing position was large enough, it might warrant writing a separate post.

I'll have to go back and re-read your posts. I may find inspiration for a new post topic ;-)

Lenn, I love your posts, you are honest and "gritty" and it is GREAT. There is a lot of gloom and doom and things are not very good. When the realtors try to paint a rosy picture, the public knows it. You were correct to me on your comment the other day the numbers do not lie.

Marilyn. Exactly. Although, I did write a post in opposition to another member's position on something, can't recall what, and he got his nose out of joint. Oh well. Of course, I steer clear of him now because I can't deal with folks with thin skin.

Picita. That's funny. Have fun.

Jim. Indeed. I too have ranged about the press, but I certainly stated facts to support my position. I think. I'm likely to rant about the Washington Post any time. That's about all the Post is good for.

William. I value your perspective on the mortgage mess because you're in a different market place. In fact, it was a post by a Californian that started me on the "mortgage mess" trek about a year or more ago.

Randall. Thanks. I AGREE COMPLETELY. We're going to see how the new kids on the block take care of things.

Ron. Indeed. The market is what the market is. We need to look at it and figure out what to do within it.

Bill B. I welcome differing opinions. I wish they would just say why they think what they think.

Edward. How can we have balance if one side will not state the facts upon which they form their opinions. Conclusory statements don't say much.

Barb. I believe that you are right. Lots of folks disagree with just about any position. Who knows, perhaps my positions are not pleasant enough for them to agree.

Fred. I suspect that you know my position.

Amanda. Folks can disagree without being rude. I don't have a rude bone in my body but I sometimes dasagree with folks. I usually begin a post with "I disagree".

Gary. Thanks. Now, your posts always give me a lift and I thank you for that.

Sindee. My pleasure.

Lenn, your comments are felt and echoed by many - keep up the great work.

Lenn,

I too, have always read your post. I do understand we are writing our opinions and predictions. No one knows the future and you do an awesome job of picking out what could happen out there.

Keep the post up. Great work. I mean Awesome work.

Lenn,

I list myself as "The Worlds Greatest Expert On The Opinions Of William J Archambault Jr!" Substitute your name and it would described you or anyone regarding their name, anyone, but the lethargic lemmings among us.

I don't hesitate to add my opinions to the most powerful, the most popular, and the most strongly opinionated among us. I've even been known to take on the Greatast herself, even my friends Brian Brady and Bryant Tutus. I don't ask anyone to agree. But, there are things I won't do. I won't respond to ranting. I won't debate an opinion when someone says "My opinion is" they are the greatest expert on their opinion, after all. I don't respond publicly when my response could and sometimes should embarrass that person. I don't respond to people I don't respect, just adding your name to outrageous blogs adds to their credibility, I don't do it.

There are times to write private notes.

When I respect the person I'll tell them what I think, separably privately. I've death with may a sales staf over the years and I believe that you praise people in public and criticize in private! Any one I respect enough to respond to deserves at least that simple curtsey.

Lastly, I try to take good advice. "IF YOU DISAGREE WITH WHAT i WRITE, WRITE A POST TO YOUR BLOG AND STATE YOUR POSITION, OPINION, IDEAS. I CAN BE PERSUADED!"

I think I'll add an introduction and post this, watch for: The Worlds Greatest Expert

Bill

Lenn, you're not gloomy to me but you are real. You are practical. That's why you are still in real estate when lots of Pollyannas have run to new careers. I appreciate your wisdom and insight. We wll make it to the other side of this but just like it took awhile to get here, it will take awhile to get out.

Posting facts and numbers transparently at times can appear negative... but sometimes the truth hurts. But I want informed clients. Many realtors should be in the porn industry as they excel in the 'fluff job.'

Lenn,

Even though we are clear across the country, our markets seem to track pretty closely. And MOST of what you say is what I believe to be accurate. The good and the bad. I would rather explain the trends and my beliefs of why this is happening to my clients and have them make solid decisions, than just give out the rah rah. I never go with the "things are awful" crowd. I have been known to give my opinion to clients that they "should not sell now" or "look at other options for financing" or "save some money first" or "that doesn't seem to make financial sense for you". That is my job to give them the facts, hard core as they may sometimes be.

List and Sell (and say what you mean and disagree if you can back it up with facts)

Gary @ RentonHomeFinder.com

Gary. Good advice. Just tell it like it is. Better yet, understand what is and deal with it. We don't have to run for cover. We just need to know how to deal with what is. We can do that if we deal with the matter of our market realisticly.

Susie. Agreed. Most of us are dealing with the market and doing O.K.

Sharon. I'm still generating a lot of business. But I did change practices and allocation of resources based on the changes in the market.

Bill. Your opinions are always welcome. We have different views and opinions, but appear to agree on most matters. As for me, I have NEVER, NEVER claimed to be an expert on anything.

Susan. Thanks. I believe I will.

Tim and Pam. Will do.

Lenn: I love your posts! They are always straight forward, backed up by facts/numbers and always get me to pause and think and wonder how what you have discussed relates to my market. I always prefer the truth and I hate sugar coating. Facts are facts and I don't consider them doom and gloom just reality. Thanks for always telling it like it is.

Hi Lenn ! - Glad you chose to write this ! ... and anyone that has followed your posts knows that you tell it like it is, BUT you elaborate and give the reasons why you post the comments that you do.

It often takes an extra few minutes to re-read, adjust, or add to a comment before we post it, but for the numbers of people who may read it - and of course the author - they would appreciate you explaining why you feel that way.

... did I elaborate enough as to why I agree with this post ?!?!?!?

Great post Lenn....I'm all for real, elaborated comments - whether they agree or disagree :o)

Good for you Diana. It's a tough market and only the tough will succeed. I like toughing folks up.

Sheldon. I enjoy reading differing opinions. In fact, I just had an epiphany. I'll have to write about that.

Lenn, Facts are facts, and I appreciate your posts. As Realtors, we should be providing these facts to our clients on a regular basis. Seeing the numbers in black and white can make all the difference to a sale during negotiations. If you don't know your local numbers, how can you be representing your sellers?

It's a Good Life!

(Brian Buffini has given his members this saying. It is not always a Great Life, but, it is always a good life) Sort of fits, doesn't it?

Fran

The truth is the truth and that is that! Good or bad!

Lenn- My on my...are you saying that there are people out there who have a problem with your 'reality'?? LOL We (you and I) have bantered, though not lately, back and forth a few times. Your 'Hard Core Real Estate Talk' is perfect and is definitely you. If someone is determined to keep their head in the sand then reading your posts is not for them but if the reader is someone who enjoys a reality check in (like me) then you have nailed it.

Frances. Indeed. By giving our clients facts, they will be comfortable with their buying solutions. I'm dealing with a seller's agent now who has an overpriced listing and no amount of comps and market logic will get his seller off their price. I guess the house will just stay on the market.

Team. Isn't it the truth. It's so simple.

Martha. Thanks. I'm not all gloom and doom. I've given many hours to helping agents prepare for this market. It's a lot easier to deal with a slow market if we're prepared.

Go get 'em Lenn - and only stupid people are afraid of controversy. !!

Featured @ Club Chaos

Lenn, You love stats and numbers as do I. Numbers don't lie. There is a huge difference between being negative and being a realist. I'm a realist that just happens to be a very positive person as well. BUT....if I didn't see how bad things really are I wouldn't know what changes I need to make in my business to thrive.

Lenn, for the second time this week I'm thanking you for writing the truth and not taking the rose colored glasses approach. I'm so frustrated here with people saying to just be positive and work harder. Even my partner thinks things are better every time the stock market goes up 100 points one day, even though it will fall 200 points the next day.

They didnt' just move our cheese, they took it away and hid it. Maybe that will be the title of my blog on this!

Have a great weekend!

O.K. Lenn I do disagree...somewhat. I agree that the market in general will be stgnant and I agree that it will be hard for most new agents and those that aare rigid to survive, let alone thrive. That being said, I expect to have a very good year this year. Why? ell a. I have a lot of experience b. I have developed a niche market that seems to be coming out of hiding c. This IS my profession, not a moonlighting career or a get rich quick idea. d. I have "worked" countless hours networking and learning new skills and researching other marketing options e. I think outside the box and I am creative, tenancious as hell and am a survivor in every aspect of my life. I believe that for those really willing to stretch themselves and expand their thinking and be innovative there are tremendous opportunities out there now. The dice have been shaken. For the minstream that have a set routine and are reluctnt to move from rigid beliefs and ways of doing business or for the new and inexperienced, it will be a very tough year indeed.

Lenn, I wouldn't worry all that much about the private messages, I have gotten them from time to time also. As for being too negative. There is a fine line between being negative and being honest when times are hard. Since I don't disagree with much of what you have said, I'll just say that you're being honest. Ignoring all the problems won't make them go away.

Lenn, I have both agreed and disagreed with you in the past, but one thing is always a constant, and that is that I respect your opinion and hope others would do the same. This would be a very boring place if we all agreed with each other, but when we disagree we need to do it respectfully, and that includes having enough respect for the person to voice your opinion in the open. Hiding behind e-mails is not the way to respond to a public post.

I don't know what the e-mails that you received said, but I am sure that your response was appropriate for each one.

Lenn

You do have great posts - keep on keepin on!!

JAN

2009

Lenn, my immediate reaction to this was wow...it must be amazing to have such a strong voice that you could personally ruffle so many feathers. Cool. That's what I call "impact" and you should be flattered. I think...

I enjoy the daylights out of your posts. Now, that doesn't mean I agree with everything but if we were all on the very same page this world would be boring as hell. Without opinions, theories, directional attitudes, pragmatism, idealism and realism we would all be google bots.

You own your opinions and you have every right to express them. I'm with you in agreement that if there is a strong disagreement they should put it in writing and back it up with facts. IMHO, each individual agent is as unique as our Real Estate is LOCAL! I feel empowered by my ability to absorb so many different outlooks and opinions within this awesome network.

Okay, I'm rambling now so I had better move on....but whatever you do...DON'T STOP! You bring so much to all of us and your writings and views are important to us. Anyway, I like it. You go girl!

Steve. I doubt that we have any "stupid" folks on ActiveRain, but the anonomous . . . . . .

Carolyn. Thanks. Thanks. Thanks.

Bryant. Indeed. In fact, I've said many times that happiness is in the genes and I believe that I have very positive and happy genes. That said, when I look at the facts of the national economy and our business, I know that I must positively adjust to make it work for me.

Linda. The title for your post should be "They took my cheese and fed it to the Wall Street Gangs".

Gayle. I agree with everything you said. Experience is my fall back and I know how to generate business in any market place.

You're right about another thing too. The big brokerage houses are hurting more than many individual agents because of their rigid structure and overhead. Also, from the newer agents that I speak with, the big brokerages are still telling their agents to do more of the same old, same old.

They have not yet realized the subtle and not so subtle changes in the views and processes of the consumers.

CONSUMERS HAVE CHANGED A LOT MORE THAN REAL ESTATE COMPANIES.

Eureka. I have a new post coming up.

JL. The business changed and those of us who change our focus to work as the business IS will succeed, ney, survive in the business.

George. I'm not sure about what most of the private e-mails say either because they are almost always obscure, full of metaphors, etc. Underneath most is a not so subtle message that I don't know what I'm talking about. Which, of course, could easily be correct, but quite irrelevant and could easily be made in a comment to my posts.

Kathy. Will do, Thanks.

Deb. Thanks. Keep rambling. Through rambling, we often uncover nuggets of truth.

For me, it's all in the numbers. When I read a flowery post from a member that says "everything will be O.K. if we just have a positive attitude", all I can think is, "I just read the number and it's a looooong way from O.K."

I'm inspired and have to get off a short post this a.m. before I leave to meet some lovely home buyers.

Lenn gld that I could be the catylst for some inspiration!

The big brokerage houses are hurting more than many individual agents because of their rigid structure and overhead. Also, from the newer agents that I speak with, the big brokerages are still telling their agents to do more of the same old, same old. CONSUMERS HAVE CHANGED A LOT MORE THAN REAL ESTATE COMPANIES. ---love that quote!

I've been saying that for the last year. I also kept saying that real estate was changing and we had to figure out how we needed to change too. My b-i-c/ friend formed his own company in July with those thoughts, and I gladly joined. Treats us agents as the Independent Contractors we are and values us independently. Unlike most of the old large brokerages that are just puppy mills.

Now we need to get the consumers to value us for what we do. Hmm, I think I may have just hit on something. Sorry for rambling again. Your posts insprire me!

Happy Sunday.

Lenn- I have not read all your posts; but I will need to catch up. I think your posts are often well thought out and are generally "right-on".

My only complaint about ANY story is that I believe we always need to view Real Estate in terms of locality. Blanket statements like "Home Prices will drop my 10%" mean little to me. More helpful would be; "Prices in NW "A" County will drop 5% and homes in Southern "A" County will remain steady."

Linda. You and your broker are on the right track. Examine the market and identify areas activity and focus, focus.

James. Enjoy. However, when did I say "Home Prices will drop by 10%???????

Lenn - I love your posts! Keep them coming. I am also a numbers person and a positive realist??? I see what is coming and can make positive adjustments. I can also convey with the numbers and reports to sellers and buyers what is going on. How on earth would we deal with a bunch of sellers (for example) who all want to sell their home for 100K more than it's worth because of some rosy post of mine. Ok, maybe that is a stretch but in any case... I often wonder what some of the posters/comm-enters base their "opinions" on - because is surely isn't the numbers. ~Rita

JAN

2009

Lenn,

You are living in the real world while many agents are so brain-washed from the beginning to always think positive.

Nothing wrong with thinking positive as long as it is based in reality.

Most agents could use a good measure of reality in their business.

I don't know who keeps us worshipping the old business model?

NAR?

Large Brokerages?

You know what I'm talking about?

Always answer, "Terrific" when someone asks how's the real estate market?

All brokers always conduct a monthly sales meeting and expect their agents to attend. Unfortunately, the meetings don't start or end on time and 99% of the agenda could be emailed to the agents saving everyone time and gas money.

Take one tiny shred of information and blow it up to represent the entire condition of the market.

Real estate is local so don't use the macro theory that the national economy and the local real estate market are not co-dependant.

Keep spending your marketing money for print ads.

I could keep going but you get the picture.

Where's the controversy? Here I thought from the post itself that there would a firestorm of opposiing comments. Doesn't seem like that happened, Lenn. I'm going to bed.

We will do just fine, give it a few months. We might not get an instant bubble to return, however gradually we will increase sales and markets.

JAN

2009

Jim. You wrote:

NAR?

Large Brokerages?

You know what I'm talking about?

If I get time today, I'll post about who.

Hi Lenn, I have bookmarked your post, so I can read them all. Great post and I too think it's aright to have a differing view or to expand on a view. Keep up the good work.

Lenn...

I have never been busier, I work longer hours, the phone rings constantly. But getting a deal to close is nearly impossible, so that indicated to me that things are not turning around!

Some people don't want to accept what's going on because they don't know how to handle the new situation. So they go into denial. If they face reality they will have to change their routine.

I like to be like one of those master kung fu fighters. They are totally aware of what's coming at them and they gracefully adjust to the situation. They remain balanced and in control. No fear, just awareness.

Lots of good info here...you have a library full of them.

Lenn,

I can always count on time well-spent when I read your blogs. One thing, you're always right on with the topics you choose. If people feel like criticizing without backing up their position, I guess one can't avoid it. The nature of the beast?

This is another great post. I'm hopefully you can wake up more people with your strong realistic voice. There are still too many continuing to live in the state of denial.

Hi Lenn:

Your posts have always been right on....

I guess posting rosy comments is all about optimism and hope that the market has already bottomed out.

ToulaRosebrock.com - DianeTurtonRealtors.net

This is similar to all the folks here that complain about the media reporting facts. I just don't understand why so many Realtors get their panties in a bunch when the media does what they are supposed to do. We all know the most markets around the country are floundering yet it seems so many get all bent out of shape about it. The attitude is like HOW DARE YOU WRITE MY MARKET STINKS.

I am all for positivity. I am positive that I personally will do better in 2009 because I am in possession of the facts. And the facts are ugly.

The market would turn around in 90 days if every seller simply adjusted their price to reflect the new correction/crash. But they can't or won't, and to the extent that they don't, unsold inventory remains high and buyers who would otherwise come out and act remain sitting on the sidelines.

Those of us who work the foreclosure niche know that the spring market will be flooded with even more short sales and REOs as the recession layoffs begin to pile up.

Folks, unemployment has gone up 2% in the past 9 months. 1.2 million jobs were lost in 2008. That is a slew of distress sales you are competing with, Mr. Seller, and you will no longer get a 10% premium for your landscaping and oak cabinets. People want cheap dirt now. And the dirt under your home lost more value than the upgrades you did above that soil.

Meanwhile, there are people who would gladly lower their price but can't. Some will wise up and do a short sale, unless their lender (which we have learned in the past 2 years aren't acting with much common sense) denies the request, sending most to REO.

Understanding that will make us more realistic, able to act and adjust as needed, and ultimately more of a resource for our clients than glass half full platitudes.

Understand, adapt, survive, thrive.

Hi Lenn ---

I used to read alot of your posts on e-Pro, and was refreshing this morning reading your new blog on AR!

Here is CO, our market IS improving! With December's inventory down 20% over last year same time, sales up 11% in December over the previous month. These sales still represent 4% decrease over one year ago, but with the global economy in October & November, this still looks "rosy". In Denver our real estate sales dipped prior to the country's dip, and we are crawling out earlier than the rest also.

The general public has said our quality of life, climate, and growing economy in Denver have brought many relocation families to Denver. The DMV is seeing many more relocations from Texas, Arizona and California. These families have said they wanted, less fires, less heat and a better climate here in Denver.

So, I DO think our real estate market will be a good 2009, not GREAT, but good!

Joan Cox

Metro Brokers - Turning Point RE

720-231-6373

Lynn,

Thanks for asking the WHY question.

I enjoy a good debate as much as anybody, but the opposing opinions need to have legs to stand on.

I disagree that real estate agents have to sensor the "bad news" from the public.

In fact, I think the public would appreciate agents that are truth-tellers.

Well said Lenn. I think the real question is, which is not subject to opinion, hype or exaggeration is:

What was your closed volume from 2007 to 2008? And what are your predictions for 2009?

I bet 80% of agents are in the same boat!

we have to be realistic in order to be practical. unfortunatly, realism , these days may often come accross as pessimism - great post!

Dear Tcarrina Lenn,

I know I'm good very good! I can anticipate much of the market, but how did I answer your blog on 1-10-09 when it shows that you posted it on 1-13-09? I didn't even suspect I was that good.

I see that it's featured again today, does that mean those of us that commented will also get another 25 points?

O'well it's time I employ my new found skills. Lenn, your blogg next Thursday is totally wrong, totally! You'll make up for it with a brilliant post Friday.

Bill

I agree that if people are going to disagree with a post, they should at least explain why and I enjoy a good arguement like anyone else.

Kelsey. Thanks. Let's get our opinions out there. We can help each other.

Bill. I have no control over featuring of my posts. I thought the one that led to this one should have been featured.

Shucks, I'll take a feature where and when I can get them.

James. There isn't a pessimistic bone in my body.

Chris. It's inevetable because there are still a huge number of agents in the pool. Huge.

Joan. I believe you might be on to something. Your neck of the country is offering a lot of value and still selling.

I just hate it when I read an article or post that sugar-coats the reality of our current national and local economic crisis. We would be crazy to put our head's in the sand because we are afraid of scaring our clients and readers. The best service we can provide is telling the truth and sharing our honest opinions, and that, madame, is exactly what you do!

Lenn - thanks for including the links to the other posts and I will read them. I appreciate your honesty in your post!

Good topic, Lenn. You have to just write what you believe I think. And I know a lot of my posts aren't as clear as I would hope.

I may not always agree....but I sure do enjoy reading your posts. And, I appreciate the other links in this post.

Every market is different and you must approach it that way. I could care less about markets that don't affect mine. There is nothing wrong with having strong opinions, it is certainly better than having none at all.

My opinion is that this market will be very selective. Buyers will continue to look for good values and some will look for outright steals. Sellers will need to do even more to make their homes desireable and lastly foreclosures will continue to put pressure on home values, leaving less desireable to squander on the market longer & longer.

Lenn,

Sometimes I disagree with you and I tell you. However, you are a great writer and I enjoy reading your posts.

Now here is a lot of food for thought. I hadn't seen any of your posts before I stumbled upon this one. I look forward to reading them as time permits.

I think those have their rose colored glasses on for 2009 will be in for a shock when reality hits them...I like your posts because you back them with facts...reading Bloomberg and the financial publications give you some real backing that is needed in this market. Hopefully those with the glasses on have a good bank account to support them in trying times!

Lenn, when we get past the point where "truth" has some "meaning" we get to a place where it is just what is "so." We can then "act" appropriately and not just "react." In the paper the other day there was a picture of a cow stranded on a little island about the size of my Dining Room----totally surrounded by the flooded Chehalis River. It was nonchalantly just eating away at the nice green grass, which I suspect it would continue to do until it had to start swimming.

well Yoda (I mean Lenn) I hang on your every word....for those of us who are smart enough that we have not had half your experience... we understand one very important thing......You know your stuff.. :)

Lenn,

In trying to be qute I buried my question.

How did your post get re-dated and back to the top of my subscription list 3 days after most of us commented on it?

Bill

Lenn "It is what it is" or, this is the way its going right now. We all hope for better, but, you can't ignore things. Tell it like it is, no problem with us...

Lenn/First Lady of ActiveRain:

I don't believe that I can ever recall disagreeing or taking exception to your opinions and observations. I always enjoy your posts, it's just that I need to make a conscientious effort to read them more often and reciprocate with comments. As such, keep doing one of the things that you do best...write...and keep us on our toes. Best wishes for a successful and prosperous 2009. Although I believe that it is your style to just make it happen!

At your invitation:

http://activerain.com/blogsview/879467/Rates-Are-Low-Im-Eating-Crow-Hey-LennWanna-Bite

Don't worry about the disagreements. Your very pragmatic thinking keeps it real. I know that I try to stay optimistic because dwelling on things doesn't seem to help, but I agree- the numbers don't lie. All we can control is what we want to do about it and how we will react to the times. We can educate our clients on the facts and move forward. Thanks for the post.

Lenn... I don't always agree with you, but your contribution to me is: you tell it like you see it. I appreciate that. To keep a good and positive outlook is extremely important. Yet, it's also important to see it as it is... it's not all warm and fuzzys.

Rene'

C'mon Lenn, don't hold back ! Let 'er rip ! If you have an opinion just throw it out there for the rest to read and maybe be challenged. Too many posters wearing rose colored glasses re-inventing that whole " PollyAnna " thing. This is a tough business requiring well polished sales skills and a willingness to work hard in this " numbers game ". I see brokers hiring new agents in hopes that a few might just make it.

Hi Lenn, I'm just coming on board and must have missed the other post to which you refer. However, I believe it is important to remember that although the "national" economy affects us all (in fact, we should now really be talking world economy), real estate is still local and there are local economies that defy what is going on elsewhere. For a negative example, take Detroit. So, your "truth" about the real estate market may not be my "truth" about the real estate market... because although we are using the same words, we are talking about different things.

Lenn - I'm kind of a Peter Schiff guy...the crash is just beginning. There really is no rosy economic picture for 2009. We are printing worthless money by the boatload, bailing out corrupt and/or unorganized corporations, using outdated, unrealistic credit scores to handcuff potential homeowners from benefitting from the "so-called" available mortgage money, throwing out random employment numbers to support further bailouts and/or "economic stimulus" packages...it's bad.

The big question is...why am I so optimistic?

1) There is a new short sale and foreclosure markert that presents opportunity for buyers. (There is room to make money and still sell the product at a savings to end-buyers).

2) There is a group of baby-boomers in the market that will be changing their real estate requirements. They have money available, decent credit scores and a PLAN.

3) I have moved to a real estate market that can take advantage of these 2 developments, and

4) ...and maybe most importantly, I love where I live and love what I do.

It will be interesting and there will be a HUGE realtor fallout...maybe this is point # 5...A HUGE fallout is probably another positive. (The strong shall survive).

Lenn: I will always appreciate someone who calls it as it is. If it's tough, say so. If it's good, report that. There is no need to mince words. We're all busy and want the truth. Thanks again!

I guess most of my opinions are from the day to day experience. Recently I have seen so much more buyer activity and buyers telling me now is the time to buy that makes me feel so good about this year. I guess it is like anything we do all the statistics in the world don't make the buyers buy. When they feel the time is right they will come back into the market. NOW is the time based on my limited exposure.

Lenn- I do think that how we look at things and the attitude we bring has a lot to do with the outcome we get. This year hundreds of agents quit or got second jobs in Palm Beach County. While others were crying and closing their doors we had to hire new people. While others only made one sale all year or none at all, we were so busy we hired a buyer's agent who is now so busy we have to hire a second buyer's agent. We have a lot of people buying with all cash. Our last 3 closings were cash Canadian buyers.

Our values were cut in half and that means so was our income. But we then look for another opportunity in which to build our profit margin. This year is already so busy that we hired a full time licensed listing manager and even he has had to work with buyers because we are having a great busy season. I believe that our luxury market will continue to grow and sell. We have luxury listings just ready to pop. Most of those will be bought by cash buyers as well.

Expanding into overseas real estate is another way to increase profits and have some stability in the income.

We will continue to increase our listing inventory in short sales as the next wave of ARMS will be adjusting this spring.

I truly believe and have proved it over and over again that if we look for the opportunities, the niches and provide the expertise we have- we will be ahead of the pack.

We just discovered a niche that is very profitable in the state of Florida that NO one is servicing and NO presence on line yet a huge demand for it. My lips are sealed right now but when I unveil it, I am sure you will agree that I found a great pearl.

These are not rosy colored glasses, this is our current reality.

That was a very well thought out post, and the links to your other "thought provoking" posts was a brilliant idea to get more out of them...

JAN

2009

Lenn, I don't care what people say about you, I love your honest and strong opinionated posts. Keep them coming and never second guess yourself.

I'm just going to keep working. I need to make a living :) The rest can be rude....and pray tell...how does one think that positive means to be rude?

I love you Lenn :) You give the straight scoop.

You are just saying what so many are afraid to. A Class Act!

Lisa. Thanks. I appreciate the thoughts.

Sally. Thanks. It's a blessing. . . . and a curse.

Justin. Thanks. I actually do give quite a bit of thought. My posts are not the result of anything less than a lot of research. Idle thinking is great if one is writing fiction. Hard core real estate talk requires hours and hours of market study.

Christine. Ha! Thanks. The purpose of adding past posts was to show that this wasn't just a recent conversion to this idea or that but the product of continuing market watching.

Lenn you are definitely an educated realtor. Telling someone what they want to hear is not only being untruthful it is also unfair to both the client and yourself. This is a difficult market and a difficult economy and reporting the ACTUAL facts of record is the only way to get results both for yourself and your client.

Bobbie. Thanks. You'll get a lot out of ActiveRain.

JAN

2009

My wise old grandmother taught me to state the problem, state why I think it's a problem, state a solution, and state why I think it's a viable solution. Following that advice for 43 years has allowed me to be successful with many companies in many industries. I think it does no good to complain if one can't offer a solution. That, of course, might require thinking, and we wouldn't want too many people thinking all at the same time. LOL

JAN

2009

good information! AGAIN LENN! but as I have always said ... any market is the Right Market! And I can SELL...

Hi Lenn- Being a new agent, I agree we have to work hard to establish a following and marketing system. We have to do what other agents are not doing, that may include finding a part time job, volunteering for open houses, getting your face in print whenever you can and yes trying to be positive. I have only been an agent for a year, and I have had 3 listings, 3 closes. It has been a very tough year. I worked my butt off, and felt like giving up many times. I really picked a great time for a career change and I know it's going to be a long roller coaster ride(nothing has ever come easy to me) and I know it may be years before this country turns around but when it does, I will certainly be ready.

Lenn, I can't tell you how happy I was to see this post. My business is/was a casualty of these bad national policies, a casualty of deceptive and criminal practices, and a casualty of those who, like you said, did or should have known, but for their own benefit, did not share as they should/could have. And I resent it. But hey, it is what it is, and I'm moving forward. What I will not do, is continue to listen to the pull yourself up by your bootstraps, hang in there it won't last forever, all will be rosy soon, from folks that mean well, but have no idea what one's personal circumstances might be, and NO premise on which to base all the rosy talk! Not that I don't believe in having a positive atitude, I most certainly do. But I also believe in realism. There is so much "get rid of the riff-raff" talk out there, and it makes me furious. If you don't have the resources to wait it out, find something else to do, at least in the meantime. And hold your head up! We in the industry did not do this to ourselves. Any more than the auto workers, or the retail workers, or the millions of others that have lost their jobs, their homes, and their sense of security this year. OK. This is more like a post than a comment. I'm going to post it...Now.

Thanks for your honesty, and your realism, Lenn.

Debi

JAN

2009

Lenn, I am so sorry I blew it! I had a very eloquent response that I prepared and then screwed up when I sent it to you. I didn't type in the graphic and I lost the whole comment. I agree with all you've said and more. Just for the record, I screwed up because this comment is my very first. I'm the "new guy" from Denver Colorado. Good Bye,Bill

Hey Bill. Not to worry. I too have gotten the dreaded message "You didn't type in the graphic correctly" and then it dumps your entire comment which is not what should be happening. In fact, I'm not sure that we didn't type the graphic in correctly.

Debi. Good for you. Post it. I don't want to be a lone voice in the wind.

Deborah L. Indeed. If you can survive in this business, you will be a success. No illusions. Just hard smart work.

Patty. Many of us can. It's getting the business that is the tough part these days.

Russel. I try to come up with solutions. If folks don't agree, fine. But, offer alternatives.

This blog does not allow anonymous comments

Lenn Harley, Real Estate Broker, Virginia & Maryland

Leesburg, VA

More about me…

Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Homes and Real Estate

Address: Lovettsville, Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria, Stafford, Woodbridge, King George, Fredericksburg, Leesburg in VA., Rockville, Laurel, Columbia, Baltimore, Waldorf, Frederick, Eastern Shore, Bowie, Harford, Annapolis in MD. , Maryland, Virginia

Office Phone: (800) 711-7988

Email Me

Maryland and Virginia real estate agents and brokers serving buyers and sellers with experience. Search listings in Maryland and Northern Virginia and get daily updates of new homes for sale by e-mail. Contact Lenn for a tour of homes. REALTORS available every day for home tours. Homefinders network of experienced agents and brokers includes new home specialists, resale specialists and luxury home experts. We can help you with your home buying needs. Homefinders offers discounted 5% listings for Maryland, Northern Virginia home owners. Experienced agents helping buyers and sellers in the Washington Metro area since 1985.

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