Expect very changeable market conditions this week. This is really the 1st true trading week since the Holiday season and is the beginning of the release of 4th quarter Corporate earnings reports. With that being said, world markets and now US markets are trading very cautiously as these reports are awaited. It is pretty much a given that the results will be poor as many companies have already sent warnings that initial numbers would not be met.
Other news being digested this week includes the possible merger of Citi's Smith Barney with the Morgan Stanley business highlighting what could become another very busy merger year for institutions on the bubble. Today's open is mirroring Friday's decline. Friday's losses were related to the governments report showing unemployment up to 7.2% and this has carried into Monday's market. Wednesday will feature the Feds Beige Book report which shows economic activity by region across the country. These reports are not expected to be favorable based on all preliminary indications. The Senate may vote this week on President elect Obama's stimulus package which may draw resistance and require additional scrutiny before passing. Oil has fallen back after a couple weeks of increases. The expected profit woes on Company balance sheets has once again driven down consumption predictions and even the Middle East and Russian/Ukraine issues are not providing an upward catalyst for OIL pricing.
The yield on the 10 yr TNOTE which provides a basis for 30 year mortgage pricing has dropped off after opening 2/100's of a point higher than Friday's close. It is now down to 2.38% from a high of 2.43% earlier in the day. This should equate to minor price changes later in the day if this trend holds.
Current 30 year Mortgage pricing is roughly 4.875%.
Even the best of times would see volatility during a week of reporting like this one.