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Do You Remember the Numbers? You Should!

Do you remember when the National Association of Realtors NAR - project the annual numbers of sales of resale homes? You should. It will give you a perspective into the state of things to come. During the peak in the market it was not unusual for the NAR numbers to float between a projected 5-6 million sales of resale homes per annum. In 2008, it moved into the high 4 millions, and was recently revised.

Existing-Home Sales Decline in Economic Uncertainty - NAR WASHINGTON , December 23, 2008

"Existing-home sales - including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops - fell 8.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate¹ of 4.49 million units in November from a downwardly revised level of 4.91 million in October, and are 10.6 percent below the 5.02 million-unit pace in November 2007."

Now that in itself is disastrous news, but lets look a little further. A news story came out today about foreclosures - nationally and locally. In this Blog I will comment mostly on the national number. The story was entitled "Report: Ga. in top 10 for foreclosures in 2008"and was published online in the Atlanta Business Journal on Thursday, January 15, 2009. What caught my eye in the report was the quote "Nationally, there were 3,157,806 foreclosure filings -- an 81 percent increase in total properties from 2007 and a 225 percent increase in total properties from 2006." (These figures are provided by Foreclosure Market Report published Jan. 15 by RealtyTrac.)

When you consider that if we sold $4.490,000 million resale homes in 2008, and there were 3,157,806 foreclosure filings in 2008 we are in a very bad place. That's saying two-thirds of what we sell a year in resale units are matched in foreclosure filings. These figures give new meaning to the word "Numb"ers! I am more shocked that no one in the real estate world wanting to place the two set of numbers together.

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Posted by Jim Crawford ~ Atlanta Real Estate-ABR E-PRO on 01/16/2009 07:32 PM

Comments (19)

Resale Home Sales 2008 - Foreclosure Filings 2008 in the ActiveRain Channel

real estate sales resale homes, resale home sales, 2008, foreclosure filings, foreclsoures, filings, real estate sales, national forecloure filings

Originally posted at: Atlanta Real Estate | Atlanta Housing News for Real Estate: Do You Remember the Numbers? You Should!

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19 Comments on Do You Remember the Numbers? You Should!

JAN

Jim, the percentage of the resales that are foreclosures in some markets is downright staqggering. Thanks for digging through the actual numbers for us all.

Jim, The numbers are just too high to contemplate. I heard the other night that 1 in 10 homes in this country is in default and will probably go to foreclosure in 2009. It makes you wonder what these banks and mortgage companies are thinking. They are so difficult to work with that half the agents out there won't even try, the other half who do run up against obsticle after obsticle in trying to get the transaction done, once we finally get an accepted offer. I wonder, the banks have been trying to get in to the Real Estate Business for years, maybe they figure if they get all the homes on the market in their foreclosure banks everyone will just let them have their way. Very sad for those losing their homes, especailly when the lenders are supposed to be helping these people and they won't do a thing to make the process any easier.

The NUMB is getting so large .... I have already seen rental house monthly rent rates starting to fall as the new rental homes entering the market were purchased @ 50% of their old value and competition is getting tougher to find paying renters. It is scary the non-forclosure home sales are down so much despite the government saving Freddie and Fannie and the other government influenced incentives... If major purchases like auto sales are off 30%, it is easy to understand how homes sales/resales would be down at least as much. Anyone want to say a prayer or are we all too busy looking for new sources of income???

I keep kicking this question around in my head and I'll ask you first. Why do agents keep posting "doom and gloom" on their blogs? I'm not suggesting burying our heads in the sand but at the same time we need to be also talking about the positives in this market. I had a great year last year. I've already had two closing this year and have two more scheduled this month. Buyers are out and they are qualified to buy homes.

Yes foreclosures are through the roof in some areas but in most of the cases those homes and those owners could easily walk away because they never had a stake in their home or they used the equity to buy "stuff." We need to keep encouraging buyers to get out and take advantage of the lower rates and lower prices to reduce local inventory. With all of the google juice that AR brings I'm going to keep focusing my efforts on bringing the good news about my area and hope that it stimulates one more buyer to think about buying one more foreclosure and getting it off the market.

Remember Jim real estate always goes up in value. At least this is what many had believed. I never bought it in the first place.

Gary Woltal - REALTOR® Dallas Ft. Worth (Keller Williams Realty) It is amazing that NAR never places the numbers on the same page. It is pretty sobering. How can we evaluate what is happening, if we cannot place the numbers in place and form a perspective. It is like the drunken husband coming home on a Friday night and giving his wife $500. All he tells his wife is this is my pay. He does not tell her that he spent another $300 of his paycheck at the bar.

Sandra Paulow, Your High Country REALTOR® (DREAMSCAPE Realty & Investment) Sad times indeed, and no solutions. I agree with all you said, and I am at a loss to how to move this foreward.

phil I'm into the prayer part, because all the incentives do not seem to be working. I can see how those that had rental units losing tenants to new foreclosure homes that sold for .50 on the dollar. Those that worked hard their entire life, and played by the rules are screwed by the current events. They will see their investments plummet, their taxes increase, and their neighborhoods trashed and blighted.

The bank owned's and hud's are murder right now. I've got several listings at the low price end of the market here in Rogers and in each case almost all their competition are repo's. Sitting in peoples living room explaining that they have to compete with that for buyers is not fun.Trying to wait for the repos to sell doesn't work cause they just keep coming.

Cindy Jones-Northern Virginia Real Estate & Military Relocation Services (RE/MAX Allegiance #1 RE/MAX Company in the World) Cindy that is your market, but that is not the case here Atlanta. The DC area for the most part rides out the downturns differently than many other parts of the nation. Since the largest employers in you area is the Government...the DC area experiences very little downsides in unemployment. In fact I cannot even remember of an actual RIF in the Federal Government where actual Full time employees FTS's are displaced. That is not the case here in Atlanta, and many other parts of the nation. Consumers need to know what is occurring, not just the sugar coating "ain't things grand' so we can easily close our our next deal with little or no objections. How fair is that for the consumer, and how neat for us? Isn't all about transparency? There are many in real estate that only want the good news reported, and I am sorry. That is propaganda, and self serving. I saw several real estate companies in Atlanta fold this last week, and a few major mortgages companies. Last month unemployment in Atlanta Georgia area climbed at a staggering rates. Things are not on the upswing here.

John Walters (7824 Real Estate of Louisiana I know many persons tha purchased in the last few years believed that also.

Rob Nelson (Century 21 Exclamation Realty) Exactly. We are between a rock and a hard place in our business right now.

Jim, those are really nasty numbers you've got there! Wonder what 2009 will give us?

Patricia Kennedy (Evers & Company) I don't have a clue, but I do know one thing. 2009 will be an incredible year for home buyers! You will not be able to beat the deals that are going to be found this year! These numbers point out some incredible opportunities lie just ahead!

I searched for several hours today to find comps for a short sale. The bank does not want us to use Foreclosures. The sales weren't there. All I found was foreclosure sales. What's a body to do when the only thing that is selling is foreclosures?

Kay Van Kampen, Broker, Springfield Missouri Real Estate (RE/MAX Solutions) In most places the foreclosures are the comps. That would be a first! What's good for the goose, is good for the gander" except when a bank does not want to really match their own failed numbers in their own closed foreclosures. If I were selling a resale, guess what numbers the appraiser is going to use to appraise my property?

Too bad the loan numbers for investors haven't really improved as much as those for prinary homes. I think you could entice a large number of investors into the market with the inventory that's out there. Just cutting the number of loans from 10 to 4 really hurt my investor clients.

JAN

Jeff Geoghan MBA - Lancaster PA Real Estate Expert (The Jeff Geoghan Realty Group, Coldwell Banker Lancaster PA) I think Congress caused this, and their interference will prolong this indefinitely.

JAN

Jim - I have seen varying reports on the accuracy of RealtyTrac's data. The most common complaint is that 'filings' not only includes properties that do not go to foreclosure, but also multiple actions on the same property. Of course, even if they are off by a factor of 3, we would still have a 25% problem. This is not true in Louisville, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was the case in other parts of the country.

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