Are Mortgage Rates Heading Higher?

Long-term Mortgage Rates are based on the investment appetite of mortgage backed securities. In recent years, there has been a lot of foreign buying of our Bonds, including these mortgage backed securities.  And this foreign buying has helped keep our interest rates low.  But times are changing, as Bond yields in other major foreign markets have been gradually rising.  For example, when comparing the yields of US Treasuries with those of Great Britain, it was common in recent years to see US yields higher than those offered in Europe.  But now, things have changed, and Bonds in Great Britain actually offer higher yields. 

Foreign investors have more of an incentive to keep their money "closer to home" in their own countries, and this has the effect of less foreign investing in our US Bonds.  Foreign purchases of our Bonds has averaged $16 Billion a month this year, down from $23.5 Billion a month for the previous year.  Should this fall-off in foreign support continue, it may pressure our Bond prices lower over time and thus apply upward pressure on our long-term interest rates.  

Only time will tell.

Larry Morris is a loan Officer with Equipoint Financial Network in Newberg, Oregon. He specializes in relocations and Sherwood, Oregon neighborhoods. He can be reached at larry.morris@equipoint.com. His website is www.PDX-Mortgage.com. This material is copy protected 2007 by Larry Morris, Mortgage News that Matters. All Rights Reserved

 

 
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4 Comments on Are Mortgage Rates Heading Higher?

Well the bond market is currently down a few clicks, but Friday's almighty Employment report could send bond traders in either direction.

05/02/2007 11:41 AM by Tony D. Howell (Olympic Mortgage Consultants, Inc.)


Today's bond market has opened down slightly after this morning's economic report showed stronger than expected results. The stock markets are posting strong gains with the Dow up 75 points and the Nasdaq up 22 points. The bond market is currently down 3/32, but we likely will see little change to this morning's mortgage rates.

05/02/2007 11:45 AM by Justin Kaatz, CMP (ASAP Mortgage)


True, but what about the long-term prognosis and foreign appetite. I agree that the technical signs still look good. We're basically back to business looking fairly normal. But foreign investment helped us get through the last year and now a pull back could change things.

05/02/2007 11:56 AM by Larry Morris, CMPS, Newberg Oregon (NW Lending Solutions)


I have herd a couple of times that the effect of foreign invesment is a bit overated, but When Bill Gross talks about bonds I listen and he indicates that China pretty much dictates the 10 year. I am worried about the dollar and inflation. Those both point to rising rates. So much of what we buy has a price determined by the value of the dollar as that lowers because we have issued so much debt doesn't that have to drive up the price of goods? Luckily this is agradual and also stops the economy from growing to fast these trends seem at odds, but I think we are in for gradual changes and nothing that will effect the industry as much as how risk is going to be assesed in the near future. My two cents

05/03/2007 10:44 AM by Alan Lacey-Fifth Third Mortgage


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Loan Officer: Larry Morris, CMPS, Newberg Oregon (NW Lending Solutions)
Larry Morris, CMPS, Newberg Oregon
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