When the Baby Boomers were younger (1960-90), families with children made up more than 50% of all households. By the time we got to 2000 this figure had declined to 33% and by 2025 it is estimated to be around 25%.
As a result the suburban boom in housing prices that we experienced will in all likelihood slow down considerably and shift to a more urban environment. No one is predicting that suburban life is dying nor will it be replaced, but as less families continue to prefer bigger houses and car-based lifestyles, a shift will occur.
There will be a swing towards different types and designs of homes as well as where those homes will be located. Gen X & Y have different needs than retiring baby boomers and rising oil prices will impact a generation that is less inclined to commute to work than the preceding generation.
In my latest Swanepoel Trends Report we discuss the 10 U.S. cities ranked as being the most prepared for an oil crisis (according to US City Preparedness for an Oil Crisis by Warren Karlenzig). They are:
- San Francisco, CA
- New York, NY
- Chicago, IL
- Washington, DC
- Seattle, WA
- Portland, OR
- Boston, MA
- Philadelphia, PA
- Oakland, CA
- Denver, CO
What these cities all have in common are strong transit systems, dense city centers that are well organized, a high degree of mixed real estate uses (retail, residential and commercial), medium to high population densities and a high utilization of public transportation by commuters.
This appears to all be strong plusses for Gen X & Y. Does this mean that suburban home prices could in the future be negatively impacted as a result?
What are you thoughts.
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Stefan - I agree that there will be a shift from suburban living. I attended a conference last year on housing in the Hudson Valley Region of NY and the planners spoke are the very same conditions. Future communities will feature smaller and greener homes, less sprawl and access to mass transit. You will also be able to walk to the coffee shop etc.