Recently I've switched from comparing 2007 to 2008 sales numbers as an indicator of trends in Northern Virginia neighborhoods.  Instead I'm posting neighborhood data for the last five years. 

Not all neighborhoods trend the same way at the same time.   However a pattern of when the average prices began to fall, the days on market and seller subsidies began to climb is more apparent with a five year chart than just looking at the last two years.  There is no doubt that I'm not a statistician and rely heavily on the MLS for most of my data.  However since the data is readily available, taking a few extra moments to pull up five years worth of data is a worthwhile exercise.

As an example:

Orange Hunt Estates 2007-2008


Year Total Avg List Price Original List % of List Sold Price Subsidy     Net    DOMM
2008 27 $466,938 $477,372 97.81 $455,230 $6,731 $448,498      44
2007 23 $529,108 $537,147 98.50 $520,648 $7,449 $513,199      51

You can see that prices are down significantly from 2007 to 2008 but where was the peak in the neighborhood?

Orange Hunt Estates 2004-2008

Year Total Avg List Price Original List % of List Sold Price Subsidy Net     DOMM
2008 27 $466,938 $477,372 97.81 $455,230 $6,731 $448,498      44
2007 23 $529,108 $537,147 98.50 $520,648 $7,449 $513,199      51
2006 25 $554,248 $583,474 96.70 $551,984 $6,144 $545,839      62
2005 37 $557,259 $560,726 99.38 $565,961 $1,654 $564,306      15
2004 38 $460,492 $460,874 99.52 $468,593 $586 $468,007       9

Now you see that the peak was in 2005 and that net sales prices in 2008 are below 2004. You can also see that seller subsidies have played a large role in the last 3 years of sales data

Everyone has their own way of presenting and interpreting data.  Buyers and sellers will look at each report they find with a different view so in no way do I think my way is the right way.  It is helping me with my CMA's before I list a property and for my buyers it gives them a perspective on the ups and downs of Northern Virginia real estate.

If you are thinking of buying or selling your home in Orange Hunt Estates, Springfield (VA) or anywhere in the Northern Virginia area give me a call.  Let's talk about whether now is the right time for you to make a move.  No hassle, no pressure just straight talk about our current market. 




Cindy Jones/Associate Broker
RE/MAX Allegiance
703-346-2213
Specializing in the I-95 Corridor & Military Relocations to the Pentagon, Fort Belvoir and Quantico

 
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8 Comments on Data Trends-Are Only Two Years Enough?

JAN
25
133,352 Points 5 Featured Posts Outside Blog Hit Router

Great example Cindy. I have been giving some thought to extending my stats but hadn't done it yet. Now I'm interested in seeing what our five year history may show.

10:01pm • #1
242,124 Points 15 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Cindy, I use a 5 year trend as well, and it's amazing how you can really see the changes in the market over that time period.

10:30pm • #2
JAN
26
487,152 Points 41 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router

Debbie-I think the 5 year data shows trends that two year charts don't.  You can look at just about any piece of the data and see more than just price drops over time.

7:31am • #3
487,152 Points 41 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router

Lisa-the charts and graphs you use on your posts are fabulous.  They really show anyone in your area the real picture of the  market.

7:33am • #4
2 Featured Posts

It looks like your volumn is holding, % to list is strong, and although your average price is lower your days on market are great! Here in Pinehurst, I have never seen less than 5 months DOM and that was even in the "boom" years. Oh, I would love to see numbers like yours.

5:03pm • #5
221,291 Points 12 Featured Posts Outside Blog

This is GREAT.  I love numbers.  I think it is interesting to see prices decrease AND DOM decrease.  There are some areas inside DC that the DOM gets longer and the price won't budge.  These numbers are very much inter-connected.  When sellers reach the end of their patience; prices and DOM will decrease.

8:15pm • #6
JAN
27
487,152 Points 41 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router

Linda-our area is so large that one neighborhoods good fortunate doesn't always translate to another one.  I did a report last night for a different neighborhood that shows a neighborhood, Rollingwood Village that isn't as lucky.

1:09pm • #7
487,152 Points 41 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router

James-some sellers have gotten the message that if you want your house to sell in this market that the price has to be in line with reality. 

1:10pm • #8

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Cindy Jones-Northern Virginia Real Estate & Military Relocation Services

Woodbridge, VA

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RE/MAX Allegiance #1 RE/MAX Company in the World

Address: 12531 Clipper Drive, Woodbridge, VA, 22192

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