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The Housing CRISIS--Is it really that difficult to stabilize???

By
Real Estate Agent with RE/MAX Suburban

I received a copy of a letter from Ameridream today, they wrote to our new President urging him to pass the H.R. 600, the FHA Downpayment Reform Act. I have been a real estate broker  for 20+ years---almost 1/2 of my life, and for some reason, I just cannot understand why our government cannot come up with a plan--and quick--to stabilize the housing market. I feel like they cannot see the "Forest thru the Trees"---We do not need to spend billions of dollars to jump start the market--We just need the 1st time homebuyers back in the market---ITS JUST AS SIMPLE AS THAT, Right? We know there are plenty of people who want to move---up, or downsizing to a smaller home--unfortunately, they are unable to sell their home or condo to move on---we need to look past the 2nd and 3rd type properties and look at the start---the beginning---the properties that 1st time homebuyers usually purchase--condos, townhomes, and smaller lower priced SF homes---this is where it all begins--The 1st time homebuyer purchases their 1st home and the sellers move on to there 2nd, the 2nd moves up to the 3rd and so on......SIMPLE---so where did the 1st time homebuyers go? With the media reports, I wouldn't be so quick to buy a home right now either---the prices could keep falling and then what?.......Well, interest rates are GOOD--some may say great--The Fed has inched the rates lower and have kept them stable---the inching bit by bit lower is almost like our unrealistic sellers---Chasing the market down w/small price reductions "here and there"---we all know what happens then---not enough to cause some quick activity, so in 30-60 days they reduce again---just not enough for buyers (the few that are out there ready to purchase) to say--this is a great buy---so this happens repeatedly---over and over again--they actually lose momentum and MONEY!!

So where is this leading??? To a plan, I think, knowing what I know, seeing what I see for the past 20+ years--We are the ones that deal with sellers and buyers everyday--We are not so far removed that we do not understand what the major concerns are--we are the ones, "Down in the Trenches" and I believe we are the ones that are in the closest contact with the very people that could get the market moving again---Right?

I think the Government could cause some real activity--Quickly--and without having to spend billions of dollars by doing something--Pro Active, and NOW! Instead of all this bail out talk--Lets start at the beginning--the 1st time homebuyers---lets offer them the best deal--and not keep it open ended--lets put an expiration date on it--say 12 months. Lets give them something they cannot refuse--no matter how the media keeps repeating the "Doom and Gloom" situation. What can we offer to make them get "back in the game"? Something new, Something unheard of, Creating a sense of urgency--- If the Qualified 1st time homebuyer was offered a government loan, lets say 3.5%--NO POINTS--30 Year Fixed rate--(never been offered--at least to my knowledge) for properties purchased in the next 12 months--Don't you think we would create the "Perfect Storm"--Home prices at an all time low--Interest rate at an all time low--I truly believe this would work--and guess what?---they would actually be making money rather than spending it---sure 3.5% is not a load of interest---but it is sure better than nothing, and WAY better than taking money out of the American pockets, and remember, most people move w/in 3-5 years after their home purchase--Just my opinion, but it seems pretty simple to me.

 

Tony & Darcy Cannon
Aubrey and Associates Realty - Layton, UT
The C Team

Heidi, it does sound like a workable solution to get the first time homebuyer back into the market!  I agree that is the one of the primary components to getting the economy rolling again. 

Jan 27, 2009 12:17 AM
Mark MacKenzie
Phoenix, AZ

Heidi,

Really good post.

I agree with you that we need new demand, both first time buyers and investors, into the market.  This is a supply and demand issue.

This plan is what the NAHB has been lobbying for, a rate reduction on new purchases.

I am not convinced this is an affordability problem though.  Housing affordability in November, before rates plunged even further and prices fell more, was at the highest since 1973.

There is a lot of fear right now, not only about prices going lower, but also about people losing jobs.

Jan 27, 2009 12:19 AM
Don Sabinske
Don Sabinske, Sabinske & Associates Inc. - Zimmerman, MN
Sabinske & Associates Inc.

I read the letter that the president of Ameridream sent earlier this morning.  I agree that the first-time buyer must be incentivized.  We need to start at the start.  Quit bailing out those who spend $1+ millions on bathrooms and corporate jets and spa vacations and I could go on and on!  Get the little guy back in the market, and quit punishing realtors. 

Jan 27, 2009 12:20 AM
Herb Hamilton
RE/MAX Preferred Inc. Realtors - Portland, OR
Real Estate Broker ,CDPE, Downtown Portland

Heidi,

A simple post with passion. Given the state of the economy I would want more than just a return of the first time Buyers or the encouragement and incentives for the move up Buyer.

What I would want is stable work environment. For with out a stable work force, giving every potential Buyer in the world an incentive will not matter if they in turn lose their home to foreclosure 6 months down the road because of a lack of work.

With 2 million plus jobs lost last year upon the already huge numbers of people out of work and thousands more just announced the other day it does not look rosey. Those were good paying jobs. The backbone of the country and our mainstay of clients.

Yes the housing market can help turn things around and they should. But emphisis on job creation and retention is the priority.

Jan 27, 2009 12:26 AM
Heidi Engel
RE/MAX Suburban - Mount Prospect, IL
BROKER/Realtor, ADPR, SRES, FSSR

Herb, What came 1st----the chicken or the egg?----Many jobs are being cut---I agree---Home builders aren't building, because the homes aren't selling....who does that affect??? --roofers, carpenters, electricians, plumbers etc... ---if they are not working, their suppliers aren't either--If their suppliers aren't working, then the manufacturers aren't either etc....---and the snowball keeps growing and gaining momentum---Home Depot job cuts and store closings are a good example. What about your job and mine? Yes--its tough out there---How much are you and I buying right now---how many paper ads are we purchasing at the moment--have we cut down on expenses too?---who does that affect---I believe the housing market affects most people---everywhere---and the economy is following suit. Again, just my opinion

Jan 27, 2009 12:43 AM
Steve Blehl
The Home Depot/Referrals to Geba Realty - Milford, PA

You make a good point. The first time buyer market and the aging market (Boomers) are believed to be the only market on the horizon for some time. Helping the building industry can only help in the way of job retention while also helping to jumpstart the economy some more.

Jan 27, 2009 12:44 AM
Steve Blehl
The Home Depot/Referrals to Geba Realty - Milford, PA

Heidi......I just read your reply to Herb............

You are right on the money with that response. Most people, unless you are or have been in building, just don't know how much new home construction is the backbone of this country.

Jan 27, 2009 12:46 AM
Karen Fiddler, Broker/Owner
Karen Parsons-Fiddler, Broker 949-510-2395 - Mission Viejo, CA
Orange County & Lake Arrowhead, CA (949)510-2395

I agree....the Nehemiah Corp is a DPA too and I've been sending letters off from there all fall. The key is "qualified" as usual, we over correct...drives me nuts. We have to all keep pushing.

Jan 27, 2009 01:12 AM
John Mulkey
TheHousingGuru.com - Waleska, GA
Housing Guru

Heidi, I wish it were simple, but it's not. Last year we lost 2.6 million jobs, the most in more than 60 years, and we'll lose millions more this year. And I do understand how home building impacts the economy, I was a home builder for 40 years, but the problems we face now are not a simple recession.  This is a much deeper problem and part of it came out of making homes too affordable to those who shouldn't have been homeowners.  

I do agree that the government is wasting trillions of dollars trying to stabilize the economy, but they, too, don't know how to respond.  We're drowning in a sea of foreclosures with millions more yet to come; and many who might still be in the market for a home are fearful of both their jobs and the continual decline in home prices.  Unfortunately, the correction will not come quickly, and the more the government intervenes, the more problems they create.

Jan 27, 2009 01:27 AM
Ron Tarvin
Residential, Investment properties, rehab projects, property management, luxury homes, new construction! - Katy, TX
Broker, Katy, Houston, Cypress 77450,77494,77095

I think that if the fear of going out of business were real for these lenders, they would be forced to be more expeditious with modifying current loans to allow the foreclosure market to stabilize.  Some of the responsibility should fall back on the lenders themselves to help stabilize the market and NOT on the taxpayers. 

Personally I think that maybe Barney Frank should be held accountable for his wrong doings in this mess over the past 10 years as well....

Jan 27, 2009 01:38 AM
Herb Hamilton
RE/MAX Preferred Inc. Realtors - Portland, OR
Real Estate Broker ,CDPE, Downtown Portland

Heidi,

I think perhaps you misunderstood my point. I do not disagree that the housing industry can lead the way.

My focus is on job creation and retention. Example the roofer: I would want for the roofing products to be created here in the USA. I would also want all of the materials that go into the roofing created here in the USA.

A stable job market with good wages will drive the demand for our product. Pent up demand will create a lot of prosperity for all but it can only be substained with stable jobs.

Jan 27, 2009 02:01 AM
Heidi Engel
RE/MAX Suburban - Mount Prospect, IL
BROKER/Realtor, ADPR, SRES, FSSR

John I agree---the economy is in a DIRE situation---Let me ask you a question---why do you think so many are losing jobs??? As I stated above, homebuilding affects many, from individuals to manufacturers---I am not a builder---I am a broker who mostly sells older (re-sale) residental homes---the housing market has affected me on many different levels---directly and indirectly---which in turn, has made my spending habits change dramatically----I no longer frequently go out to restaurants for dinner---who does that affect? I have completely stopped purchasing any non-necessity items, say a new pair of shoes--not that I need them, just because they "caught my eye", or a new designer purse to add to my collection--or even a new pair of jeans w/a different rise, or pocket style-because they are "the thing" right now----who does that affect? You see, my point is that someway or another our housing market impacts everybody---even a restaurant----where does that leave our country as a whole? The more Doom and Gloom we hear the less $$ we spend---and for good reason---Its a viscious circle. I truly believe that our economy will stabilize only after the housing market stabilizes---so rather than "Throwing in the Towel", Focusing on the millions of foreclosures to come, or keep reiterating what a terrible state of affairs we are in, lets try and do something about it---for the better---who knows, maybe we will be heard---and at this point, what do we have to lose----maybe some inventory??

Jan 27, 2009 02:18 AM
Heidi Engel
RE/MAX Suburban - Mount Prospect, IL
BROKER/Realtor, ADPR, SRES, FSSR

I TOTALLY AGREE--- I would love for America to be totally self-sustainable---GO USA!!! But if we do not dissect---or try to fix one "piece at a time"--we will lose focus and direction and I believe nothing will be solved---if we ball it all up its quite overwhelming----Lets take it one issue at a time--fix it, and get OUR GREAT COUNTRY back on track!!

Jan 27, 2009 02:33 AM
John Mulkey
TheHousingGuru.com - Waleska, GA
Housing Guru

Heidi, I understand just how much housing drives our economy, and job creations drives housing. My point is that we must stimulate private industry to create jobs, not just in the housing sector.  And while I agree that we don't necessarily need to focus only on the negative, it will take much more than a positive attitude to restore the economy. What we all need to do is to stay in contact with our elected leaders and provide our input. The careless actions of Congress has been a great part in creating this mess, and unless they know that we will no longer accept "politics as usual," we'll continue to receive the more of the same.

 

Jan 27, 2009 03:46 AM
Anonymous
John Brooks, Lubbock, Texas

Hello everyone! Thanks Heidi for writing this post. What needs to happen is for everyone here to get active and call, email, visit our members of congress, both senators and our representative and encourage them to support efforts like HR600 that will help stabilize the housing market that does NOT use our taxpayer dollars to do so!

Jan 28, 2009 02:36 AM
#15
Heidi Engel
RE/MAX Suburban - Mount Prospect, IL
BROKER/Realtor, ADPR, SRES, FSSR

Thanks for a great comment John---How true---we need to speak up----there is always strength in numbers!!

Jan 29, 2009 02:03 PM