Mortgage rates held steady during the first half of the week, until Wednesday's Fed meeting. As expected, the target for the Fed Funds rate remained unchanged, close to a level of zero. Heading into the announcement, the biggest question for investors was whether the Fed would begin to purchase Treasury securities in addition to mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to help support the financial system. Hoping for a decisive plan, many investors were disappointed that the Fed merely indicated that it was ready to purchase Treasuries if "evolving circumstances" justify the action. Yields on Treasury securities rose significantly after the announcement, and in order to compete for investors, mortgage rates moved higher as well.
Also applying upward pressure on mortgage rates, a large fiscal stimulus plan moved closer to passage during the week. An $819 billion fiscal stimulus package passed a vote in the House, and the Senate is expected to consider its $900 billion version next week. The combined government spending for this new package, along with the TARP program, the MBS purchase program, and a proposed bank cleanup plan, will total trillions of dollars. An enormous amount of new debt will be issued to pay for all the government programs, and interest rates offered on all bonds may need to increase to attract investors. One positive note is that foreign investors continued to show strong demand for US bonds during the week.
In the housing sector, December Existing Home Sales rose 7% from November. Inventories of unsold homes dropped to a 9.3 month supply from 11.2 months in November. According to the National Association of Realtors, lower prices persuaded many buyers to step in. Existing Home Sales cover more than 85% of total home sales, so this report was very welcome news for the housing market. December New Home Sales didn't perform as well, dropping 15% from November.
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