As people begin to think of Spring and possibly moving, I have seen an increase in the number of inquiries at our Kiosk at the Park City shopping mall. Just this past week the character of inquiries has moved from "how is the market" to "we are thinking of moving".
Here are the numbers from my February 4, 2009 searches in the Lancaster County MLS:
Active Listings UA Listings Ratio Prior year Ratio 2004/05 Ratio
February 4, 2009 2,730 447 16.37% 24.62% 75.45%
January 3, 2009 2,660 427 16.05% 21.29% 85.24%
December 4, 2008 2,848 518 18.19% 24.15% 85.74%
November 7, 2008 2,903 593 20.43% 20.43% 95.00%
The Lancaster County Association of Realtors February 2009 newsletter House Calls indicates: "in a recent report by the Lancaster County Association of Realtors® (LCAR), the 4,424 homes sold in 2008 is a 23.0 percent decrease from the 5,746 sales in 2007. The record is 6,453 sales in 2005. The $187,447 average sale price for 2008 is a 3.3 percent decrease compared to the 2007 price tag of $193,869". We have seen a slowing of the pace of sales, but we have not seen the sizable decline in values that other areas have seen.
Much of the national news focuses on areas of the United States that are outside of our Lancaster County Market area. Mark Korman, one of our company directors, recently indicated that in Las Vegas, 1 out of 78 homes are in the foreclosure process, while in Lancaster County it is 1 in 3,126. Our area was recently identified by both Kiplinger and Forbes as a good place to weather a recession.
The United States and other countries have put together various stimulus packages. President Obama and Congress are considering passage of another $750 Billion package to supplement the package in 2008. With all that money flowing into the system, I could envision that we soon see a strong resurgence in the real estate and financial markets in the next year or two.
Is this really a good time to buy? Is it even possible to sell? I think it is a great time to buy. Interest rates are low by historical standards. I hear rate quotes of 6 percent recently. While that may not be as low as we have seen recently, it is a far lower rate than the 18 percent rate that some people were paying in the 80's. Also, when considering the Ratio's listed above, buyers now are experiencing a larger selection of homes they can choose from, and they are faced with multiple offer situations much less frequently than in the years around 2004 and 2005.
Someone selling a home now to "move up" may not sell for as much as they wish, but the purchase they make is likely to be even more attractive. An example may be that if they sell for 3.3% less than they may have three years ago, 3.3% of that home sale price is less than 3.3% of the price for the home they are purchasing. That difference, combined with the lower interest rate they are more likely to enjoy now than if they wait until the economy gets vigorous again, will benefit them for years to come as they enjoy the new home.
Buyers considering new construction homes may see even more value than they could have a couple years ago.
Regarding selling a home now: In House Calls, LCAR reported that there were 925 homes sold in the fourth quarter of 2008, and considering that the five-year average of fourth quarter sales is 1,314, things could be worse. The homes that are selling are prepared well for the market. Well prepared includes cleaning, staging, pricing, showing convenience, and availability. People who address these areas properly sell their homes. They do not need to keep showing the home, wondering when someone will indicate true interest with a written offer.
Now is a great time to buy a property!
Prepared by: J. Merle Sollenberger, GRI, CRS, Associate Broker, Realtor®
Prudential Homesale Services Group
150 North Point Boulevard, Lancaster, PA 17601
717-560-9100 www.msollenberger.com msollenberger@topproducer.com
Licensed in PA
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