It Passed! Now What?

Here is last week's Market Watch by Joe Brown.  Joe Brown is the President of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage's Silicon Valley, Monterey Bay and East Bay regions.

Friday, February 13, 2009

It Passed! Now What?

 

A compromise on the Economic Stimulus Package has been reached. The new price tag: $787 billion. That's below both the $820 billion House-passed version and the $838 billion Senate-passed version.

Just like with anything in life, the final package is all about compromise. Real estate advocates from NAR and Realogy President Richard Smith lobbied well on our behalf but in the end only a portion of the requests we had of lawmakers were made part of the final Economic Stimulus Package.

I am encouraged that lawmakers have now reached an agreement and we can finally move forward with some direct action.

The goal of the highly controversial Economic Stimulus Package is to create or save some 3.5 million jobs while helping to rebuild our nation's economy which has been in a recession since December 2007. Although, at the writing of this piece, the details of the legislation had not been finalized, we do anticipate a number of important housing provisions, including (as reported by NAR):

• "Homebuyer Tax Credit - a $8000 tax credit that will be available for qualified purchase of a principal residence by a first time homebuyer between January 1, 2009 and December 1, 2009. The credit does not require repayment. Individuals who purchase in 2009 using financing assistance from state and local mortgage bonds will be permitted to use the credit, as well. Click here for a chart with details on the first-time home buyer tax credit: http://www.realtor.org/wps/wcm/connect/b32db1004d05f6338052c5fd73e5610f/government_affairs_tax_credit_chart_021308.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=b32db1004d05f6338052c5fd73e5610f
• FHA, Fannie and Freddie Loan Limits - Revised loan limits for FHA, Freddie Mac, and Fannie Mae. Specifics have not been released but reports indicate that the 2008 limits have been reinstated for 2009 except in those communities where the 2009 limits are higher. Additional increases in individual communities may also be available at the discretion of the HUD Secretary.
• Foreclosure Mitigation & Neighborhood Stabilization - Funding for states and local communities to be used for neighborhood stabilization activities for the redevelopment of abandoned and foreclosed homes are authorized."

In addition to these new elements, NAR continues to work with the Department of Treasury to implement a mortgage buy-down program. The details on that will surface over the next several weeks.

To view all of the housing provisions, click here: http://www.realtor.org/government_affairs/gapublic/uae_hr1_additional_provisions

So what's next? President Obama is pushing to get quick approval of the emergency package so he can sign it into law before the end of this three-day holiday weekend.

Once it is signed into action, Washington is eager to get the funds into the local state governments and ultimately the local economies so they begin to directly affect Main Street. Consider reading this article from CNN with more details on the package itself: http://money.cnn.com/2009/02/13/news/economy/stimulus_individuals/index.htm?postversion=2009021308

There's no question, it will take several weeks-if not months-before we begin to see some patterns or trends and for this package to have a full impact on our economy. But I am gratified that the government recognized the importance of passing the Economic Stimulus Package. The health of the nation's housing market is critical to the financial well being of every household in the country and that, of course, is front and center right here at home. I believe the legislation will help to stabilize the housing market, at a time when our country needs it most.

With this news in tow, let's take a look at this week in real estate:

• East Bay-Berkeley reports that buyers are definitely out there looking. Our floor time and walk-in traffic have been great. Two of our Berkeley Previews properties just went pending another listing in the $800s also went pending. Castro Valley reports that well priced, well-maintained properties are being snatched up in our local market due to decreases in inventory. We had a well-priced Castro Valley home that saw multiple offers that went pending (over asking, within five days of listing). Another clean, well-priced home in the San Lorenzo/Hayward area went back on the market and had three offers within two days. Having said that, prices continue to dip. Castro Valley pricing remains super competitive, with entry level properties hovering between $350,000 and $400,000. Danville reports that the upper end is showing signs of life. Four of our last eight sales were above $800,000 and were not REOs. Open houses also continue to be well attended in this market. Tri Valley Update: Since the first week in January 2009, Livermore active listings have decreased about 6% and total pending sales are up over 8%. Pleasanton active listings have increased 23% and total pending sales are up 20%. The active listings in Dublin have remained steady and the total pending sales are up almost 10%. Walnut Creek reports good open house attendance. First time buyers and investors are out there and actually making offers on listings. The entry level priced homes are selling.
• Monterey County-The activity level seems to be picking up somewhat. Agents are busy writing offers though getting a meeting of the minds between buyers and sellers is taking more counters and more time.
• North Bay-Our Greenbrae office reports that a home in Fairfax listed at $1.7 million had more than 183 people through its Saturday and Sunday open houses this passed week. One REO property came on the market at 8 p.m. and had two offers by noon the next day. Increased traffic at Agent open homes this past Sunday. One Greenbrae home listed at $1 million was in contract before the Sunday open - less than two days after listing. Southern Marin notes that while sales are still soft, open houses were heavily attended on Sunday with many seemingly real buyers. A $2.5 million property in Mountain View had almost 20 parties and that was the third open house. The Agent felt there were a handful of qualified buyers. We are seeing more listing that are starting to come on and slowly but sure the market is picking up. Petaluma reports a flurry of open house activity with 30-40 groups in numerous properties. Buyers are our in full force and Agents are bringing their buyers to open houses. We are continually seeing multiple offers in most price ranges.
• Peninsula-Half Moon Bay notes that Agents are more enthused this week as the phones are ringing and floor activity is on the rise. Purchase contracts are being written but are too low at this time for sellers to understand the offer is probably market value. Menlo Park Santa Cruz reports that buyers are circling but are slow to react. Sellers are listening to the advice of their Agents and are starting to price their homes competitively to get them sold. We did have a sale this week in Woodside that was over $3 million which is helping to breathe some life into the upper end. Palo Alto is noting an interesting trend. Activity at open houses varies from open home to open home and from price point to price point. We see 100 folks show up at a townhouse in Mountain View and maybe just two or three at a condo in Palo Alto. Our Woodside office noted one $3.5 million listing had three offers. Two others over a million also had multiple offers. The lesson: buyers will buy a property that is at the right price-ones that are "discounted" to today's market prices.
• San Francisco-Lombard notes a lot of fence sitters, price reductions and low offers. But the well-presented, well-priced homes are getting the contracts. Sales over $1.5 million are still rare. New construction is taking the biggest hit. The Market Street office notes that open house attendance was brisk. Buyers have stepped back a bit waiting for the results of the stimulus package and how it will affect them.
• Santa Cruz County-No information reported this week.
• Silicon Valley-It was a slow week. Correction. A really slow week. Our Cupertino De Anza office write, "The only thing that matters right now is a cheap price." Well of course that is debatable and is certainly dependent on the market-and the house for that matter-but what I would agree with is that buyers are looking for value right now. They are looking for value and only act when they see it. Los Gatos reported a number of short sales which is why our short sale seminars this week were so appreciated. San Jose Main is telling a bit of a different story noting that buyer activity is increasing. Open house traffic is up dramatically from the past weekend, especially with homes priced at $300,000 to $500,000. We are seeing increased sales activity and interest this past week, according to SJ Main. San Jose Willow Glen reports that open houses have quite a bit of traffic and floor calls are picking up slightly. Several Agents are working with buyers at this time so our hope is that it is just a matter of time until this interest turns into closed contracts.
• South County-No information reported this week.

What I'd like to leave you with this week is this: it's time to get in a position of optimism. We are in a great position for a turnaround. But we also must understand that this isn't going to be an easy road. The road we took to get here wasn't easy and the road ahead may be a challenge. But the up side is that we are on the road to recovery. Our market has been in neutral for some time and now it is time to put it in drive. The Economic Stimulus Package. The release of the second half of the TARP funds. These are all things that can and should help. Now it is up to our economy to do the rest.

Let's watch as the details unfold over the next few weeks and we'll wait to see whether the $787 billion in aid is our nation's answer to prosperity. All we can do is hope and remain optimistic.

Until next week,

JOE BROWN