Things are evolving!
Last update we said
March crude Oil, we had bought one CLH09 future at $39 and one at $37.00 we closed out at today's contract close at $39.45 for an average profit of 1.45 per contract. Not a big gain, we missed the bigger gain my target was a bit high but a gain, never the less. It about $2900.00 on about $16000 margin, about 18%.
We are flat now and await other ideas.
SPH09 or ESH09 stock index futures. We missed our short sale. Oh well, I am looking to start buying. We will use a 3 unit strategy. We will buy 1 unit at $775 now, a second unit at $735 and a third unit at $700. I am putting these all out there incase I miss a blog.
If this is still the 4th wave will bounce now. If we are in the 5th down we will take out the lows at $738.50. Unfortunately, I am not sure that I would get to blog it fast enough to catch the different of the two waves. This strategy takes it into account.
This is an important time. Let us understand all the good news of the government actions is out and the market is very heavy. That smells of a decline and a new low. If we don't rally tomorrow, which Friday turn around rallies are tough to find. We should drop hard to our 5th wave low. I am buying tomorrow as you see because I can not be that nimble here. The next few days will tell.
Last update we said.
Treasury 10 Year Notes. We are flat. I am shifting my attention to the 30 year treasury. USH09 march future. We will buy one unit at 125 16/32nds order to buy a second at 123.00
We bought 125 16/32 one unit we are long the 30 year treasury. I didn't blog us out it rallied big time to 130 12.5. Never the less we will put an order to sell at 128 even.
Real Estate Markets, the markets want to get going, as soon as the uncertainty of all this new legislation is out and cleared up, we will start moving nicely. I have been reading though real estate blogs all over the country and Canada and Europe. I have found some simple realities. Markets which over built and have dropped hard, such as So Cal., Nevada, Arizona, Florida have been picking up nicely in volume. This is important. It means at the right price real estate is in demand. The areas that were up well, but not extremely over built, are modestly lower in price and off in volume. The areas that did not go up much at all, are basically off just a little and that is of late only. These later two areas need a fire under them or more time or more lower prices to get going. I think the government set the fire lets see if that will do it and if more time and price are not needed. There is actural a fouth type which was rare, it never went down and was still going up slightly, mostly on less volume.
In Bergen County New Jersey, we are in the second group. We went up in price maybe from 2001 to 2006 about 60-100%. Bergen is basically a fully developed area, small little sub divisions and knock downs for supply. Compared to Florida areas, that tripled while having heavy supply. Think what that means, extreme high in price with extreme supply. In the stock market that would be distribution. Bergen needs the fire under it the government has been doing or a little more price and time. I think we are ready, if they have the mortgages they will come. I will talk more technically about these market assessments in my next blog. It will give a greater perspective to what to expect.
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Richard
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