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Market Comment
Mortgage bond prices rose last week applying downward pressure on mortgage interest rates. Rates found support from falling stock prices. The Dow Jones index fell into the 6,000 range early in the week and was unable to recover. The employment report released last Friday indicated continued weakness in the labor market with the US economy losing 651,000 jobs in February.
For the week, interest rates on government and conventional loans fell by about 5/8's of a discount point.
The Treasury auctions will take center stage this week as debt supply concerns continue. Most of the other releases are expected to be weaker and, any surprises to the contrary, will likely result in mortgage interest rate volatility.
LOOKING AHEAD
|
Economic
Indicator
|
Release
Date & Time
|
Consensus
Estimate
|
Analysis
|
| 3-year Treasury Note Auction |
Tuesday March 10,
1:30 pm, et
|
None |
Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| 10-year Treasury Note Auction |
Wednesday, March 11,
1:30 pm, et
|
None |
Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Retail Sales |
Thursday, March 12,
8:30 am, et
|
Down 0.4% |
Important. A measure of consumer demand. A larger decrease may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Business Inventories |
Thursday, March 12,
10:00 am, et
|
Down 1.1% |
Low importance. An indication of stored-up capacity. An increase may lead to lower rates. |
| 30-year Treasury Bond Auction |
Thursday, March 12,
1:30 pm, et
|
None |
Important. Bonds will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
| Trade Data |
Friday, March 13,
8:30 am, et
|
$38.2 billion deficit |
Important. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates. |
| U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
Friday, March 13,
10:00 am, et
|
56.3 |
Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
Retail Sales
Retail sales data is the first indication of weakness or strength in consumer spending released each month. The Bureau of the Census of the US Department of Commerce provides information on how much the consumer spends on the purchase of goods. This data provides the consumption part of the gross domestic product. Retail sales data represents merchandise sold for cash or credit by retailers. Durable goods, such as autos, make up 35% of the figure. The balance consists of non-durables such as gasoline, restaurants, and general merchandise.
There are several drawbacks to the report. The data covers purchases of goods only, not services. It is also not adjusted for inflation and is extremely volatile.
Economists are concerned that the current economic uncertainty will continue to curtail consumer-spending habits. Consumers have generally been given credit for sustaining the economy even amid the economic turmoil.
The data will be a vital component in determining just how bad things really are. Be cautious. Mortgage interest rates rallied nicely last week and continued improvements are not a given. Take advantage of favorable movements when they come your way.
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Copyright 2009. All Rights Reserved. Mortgage Market Information Services, Inc. www.ratelink.com The information contained herein is believed to be accurate, however no representation or warranties are written or implied.
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