This morning I listened in on a short-sale webinar by J. Allan, Janie C., and Broker Bryant, all active on this site.  Jennifer is from CO., the other two are from FL., and the statistics they cited about the FL. markets were stark.  Roughly 60% of homes in their markets are distressed sales, therefore there is a need for Realtors in certain areas to perfect the skills required for successful short sale negotiations.

Ithaca has seen an increase in such distressed property sales in the last year, but not nearly comparable to these markets.  Our MLS system does not currently record distressed properties as a category in terms of type of sale.  The only way to figure it out is if you happen to know the listing agents handling them, or by gleaning from reading the MLS sheets to see who the owners of the properties are.  If the owners are Bank LLC's., you can make an educated guess, and/or call the listor.  It may be worth our while now though, to begin to record this data, as it begins to appear in our market.

There is an excellent article in the NY Times today about the housing market from coast to coast.  NYC condo and co-op sales showed a 50% drop in contracts in January (but they don't say what they are comparing it to - the previous month or the year ago month of Jan).  However, Ithaca, also saw a 50% decline in terms of residential contracts in January (from 150 in Jan. 08 to 74 in Jan. 09).  Interesting parallel.  I do not, however, feel a cringe or a twinge when I read the Ithaca Board of Realtor stats.  I do cringe when I read this about Manhattan, because of the bloodbath that their job market has become.  A related article goes on to discuss values declining by roughly 30% for some market sectors in the metropolitan area.

One upside for us ABOUT Manhattan, is that homes in our market, compared to there, are STILL highly attractive in terms of price point, and what you can get for your (remaining) dollar.  So, we are seeing some renewed interest from buyers who might be looking to invest, downsize, or in other ways escape the city, but still be near enough (only 4 hours away) to go back for the occasional urban fix.

According to an Ithaca Journal article, as of March 3rd, values held firm all through last year, and NO municipality lost ground:  "Increases in property values varied across the county, from a 1.51 percent increase in Groton to a 3.58 percent increase in the City of Ithaca. No county municipality saw a drop in property values, Franklin said."  Although we have had fewer transactions, values overall remained solid.  But it is a shifting time.  Many moving parts in the national economy, and in new taxation strategies both nationally and statewide.  So the impact of these changes is likely to show up in the year ahead.

Will we hold up in 2009 as well as we have so far?  It's anybody's guess.  We have had a store or two close shop, and some people have suffered job losses.  But demand for housing here still seems to be high.  Bidding wars have not disappeared.  I know of at least two last week and that was just through my office, the 4th largest in town (we are not really "large" - 15 agents).

Stay tuned for the post-mortem toward the end of summer!  And feel free to leave your questions or comments for me here, or send them to me at Santos.Homes@gmail.com.