Market Outlook

 

Friday, March 13, 2009              

 

Price Trend: Negative

Price Volatility:  Elevated

Recommendation:  Floating

_________________________________________________________________

 

Current Conditions:                Today’s Economic Data (all times PDT)

 

FNMA 4.5          101-02  (-3)                   Import Prices                             5:30                  GNMA 4.5          101-19  (-4)                   Trade Balance                            5:30

10yr Yield          2.896%                         Consumer Sentiment                  7:00

                                                           

                                               

_________________________________________________________________

Commentary:

 

Bond prices are down slightly this morning.  One factor weighing on Treasuries and mortgages is a comment made by a Chinese official overnight expressing concern about the falling value of the dollar.  Some are interpreting that to mean that the Chinese will slow their purchases of Treasuries thus increasing yields.  The concern will likely be short lived, though.

 

The trade deficit unexpectedly contracted in January.  There was minimal reaction to this data.  The other surprise was the slight increase in Consumer Sentiment.  Although an interesting piece of data, consumer attitudes and the methods used to ascertain them are not very reliable. 

 

Next week has inflation data being released and the FOMC meeting. 

 

Have a great weekend!

 

 

This Week’s Calendar:

Date

ET

Release

For

Actual

Briefing.com

Consensus

Prior

Mar 10

10:00 a.m.

Wholesale Inventories

Jan

-0.7

-1.1%

-1.0%

-1.4%

Mar 12

08:30 a.m.

Initial Claims

03/07

654K

640K

640K

639K

Mar 12

08:30 a.m.

Retail Sales

Feb

-0.1%

-0.3%

-0.4%

1.8%

Mar 12

08:30 a.m.

Retail Sales ex-auto

Feb

0.7%

-0.1%

-0.2%

1.6%

Mar 12

10:00 a.m.

Business Inventories

Jan

-1.1%

-1.1%

-1.1%

-1.3%

Mar 13

08:30 a.m.

Export Prices ex-ag.

Feb

0.1%

NA

NA

0.0%

Mar 13

08:30 a.m.

Import Prices ex-oil

Feb

-0.6%

NA

NA

-0.8%

Mar 13

08:30 a.m.

Trade Balance

Jan

-36.0B

-$37.5B

-$38.2B

-$39.9B

Mar 13

10:00 a.m.

Mich Sentiment-Prel

Mar

56.6

56.5

56.3

56.3

 

Richard Sellers



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Posted by Rich Sellers Realtor DRE#01148405 on 03/13/2009 01:19 PM   Comments (0)   Market Reports in the ActiveRain Channel  
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