What may move Mortgage Rates this week?

 This weeks Economic Calendar is full of information but it is not likely that any of the data will move the markets much. As I have been mentioning all year... 2009 is the year of the stock market driving the credit markets. More on that below.

Here is what we have in store for this week:

• MondayMarch 16: February Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, expected -1.2% and 71.1. Activity on the Manufacturing front has been close to 30 year lows. This is widely known and already priced in... Not a likely market mover.
• Tuesday, March 17: February PPI, expected +0.4% and a core rate of +0.1%. Energy prices are the reason for the bulk of that positive number. Taken out the core rate is a weak one. A number matching (or weaker than) the core rate support steady to possibly lower rates.
• TuesdayMarch 17: February Housing Starts and Building permits, expected -2.1% and -5.6%. This will be the 8th consecutive decline. the permit number is almost entirely representative of "sold homes" as there is no spec building going on today. This is not likely to move the markets.
• Tuesday March 17: Fed meeting starts.
• Tuesday: Jennifer Allan, author of Sell With Soul and fellow Active Rainer is speaking in Toms River NJ for the Ocean County Board of Realtors.
• Wednesday March 18: National Hangover day.. My Daughters Birthday, Her driving test, and yet a few more gray hairs I am sure!
• Wednesday: February CPI, expected +0.3% and a core of +0.1%. Same as the PPI above. We all have seen the price at the pump up, that is the biggest difference in the headline number vs the Core rate. As forecast we should see steady to possibly lower rates.
• Wednesday: Fed meeting Done. The FOMC meeting is expected to leave rates unchanged for months to come, it will be the comments that come out of the fed that are most likely to move things. look for a pause in the markets around 2:15 while the markets digest the post meeting statement.
• Thursdy March 19: Initial Jobless claims for week ending March 14, expected +4,000. as forecast it is very much anticipated and priced into the market. so not a likely market mover.
• Thursday: Leading Indicators, expected -0.6%. This is not a widely "looked at" indicator, but it is on the calendar.
• Friday: No News.
• Look for Monday: Existing home sales expected down 0.8%

As mentioned above, even with a fairly full calendar this week will most likelybe Stocks Stocks and more stocks. With the recent run up in stocks last week it is likely that we will see a bit of a sell off by the end of the week. If and when we see that happen, we should see some cash flow back towards the credit markets, driving prices up a little and Yields down a touch along with it. Over and above Stock Fluctuations or Indigestion this weeks "biggie" would have to be the Fed Post meeting statement. Bernake was pretty positive in a rare TV interview last week, if the post meeting minutes hint at a recovery look for stocks to bounce up and rates to go up as money flows from the credit markets. The FED is still standing on the sidelines to buy Treasuries and MBS, so we may not see a a huge hit to interest rates, but it is a possibility.

That's this weeks $1.00's worth!  (I raised my price from the usual 2 cents!)

have a great week!

Rob

Robert Rauf

Mortgage Banker

www.RobertRaufHomeLoans.com   or my blog: http://activerain.com/blogs/rrauf

(732)223-1630 x102

Since 1987 I have been helping my clients fulfill their dream of home ownership!

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