This topic gets beaten to death. It is not that difficult. The difficulty is trying to manage the media so that they stop scaring the stuffing out of consumers. Scared consumers do not spend money, which in turn leads to recession. Sound familiar?
Now, back to the topic. We are beginning to see signs that the economy is trying to turn the corner. It is important that this message get to consumers so that they start spending money again.
Here is how you will know that we have reached the bottom of this economic market.
- First-time unemployment claims will drop. We have not seen this yet. In fact, it increased in February from Janaury. We probably have a few more months of increases before we begin to see decreases.
- Consumer spending will have more oomph, boosting retail sales for a few months in a row. Wait, didn't we just have that in January and February? Yes, we did. Consumer spending increased in January and February if you ignore auto sales. I'm surprised to see retail sales increasing this soon, but it is a good sign.
- Stock market rallies will last for weeks. Typically, stock markets foreshadow recoveries. This time, though, investors may wait and watch for signs that the government's efforts are working. We've had a rally for just over a week now for the first time since November. Time will tell.
If that doesn't work, then just watch the media. They will tell you that we have reached the bottom about six months after we have passed the bottom.
What I can say is that our business is beginning to increase (albeit very, very slowly).
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