I am often asked "how's the real estate market", followed by a nervous and ostensibly "knowing" laugh.  Like the inquiring mind "knows" the market stinks and then waits to see if I'll tell them some tale or be negative. The thing is, "how's the real estate market" is a multifacted, loaded, complicated question and no short pithy answer is going to credibly answer that question.

Anyway, in the same breath, I am asked "what do you think the future holds...." you know, the preverbial "crystal ball question".

Here's the thing... I have "hunches" and "instincts" but I get those hunches and instinctive/intuitive directions from things I see... things I read... stats I watch.

For example, here are 2 things that are punching that "hunch button" I have that the Coeur d'Alene market area is cradling "the bottom"...

Glimmer of Hope for Southern California Home Market:

For the first time in 10 months, the median home price in Southern California in February didn’t decline from the prior month, the La Jolla, Calif., firm said. The median price for a home sold in the counties of Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange last month was $250,000. While that was down 39% from February 2008, it was unchanged from January.

The Biggest Surprise in the Housing Data: Single-Family Permits:

Economists and home builders are more focused on the 11% rise in permits for single family homes. The increase in permits suggests that builders are hopeful that the housing market is improving, ever so slightly.

It's the constant "reading between the lines"... applying these 2 interesting tidbits along with labor tidbits, company formation tidbits, credit and lending tidbits... all compiled to provide an educated "instinct" that often serves me well.