We just don't know how far away it is.
Yeah, that bit of info helps a lot, right? I see it all the time - articles that someone, somewhere, typed out into a news story, an article in a weekly magazine, or on some website. I've been seeing these rosy little missives for years now. So, where is this miraculous recovery? Next quarter? Next year? Where?? When?? Keep reading...
Being raised by an engineer has its good points. It made me want to go get a technical science degree, although I seldom use it. Made me analytical, tho, and I love to juggle data. Here is some of that data...
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18-Mar-09
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All Metro area
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Gilbert
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85234
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85297
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85298
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V V L
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ALL Active Homes
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48953
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1991
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368
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313
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323
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55
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Actives that are REPOS
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21683
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1087
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216
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155
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132
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15
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44%
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55%
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59%
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50%
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41%
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27%
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|
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ALL Pending Homes
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12366
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682
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111
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118
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82
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9
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Pendings that are REPOS
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9701
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526
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86
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93
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59
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8
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78%
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77%
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77%
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79%
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72%
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89%
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Repos are: all homes that are in some stage of the foreclosure process.
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Data comes from the ARMLS database.
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Notice the percentages... The bulk of all the sales that are happening, involve distressed properties. Many of these are short sales, and will not close as they are currently set - the home will still end up as a full bank repo, but ultimately, will be sold. What this data tells me is that there ARE in fact buyers out there, and to have a good chance of selling, a seller should change their name to "BANK" or "Short Sale". I'm kidding, sort of. The MLS data further shows that the great majority of these sales are taking place in the "under-200" price range. In some areas, homes are selling for $50 per sq ft.
So, when is this recovery coming? When the backlog of distressed properties gets a whole lot smaller. Until then, we are going to see more of this. My bet is later this year. We are in the darkest part of the market... All uphill from here, hopefully. If you are a seller, I'm here to help. The data cannot be ignored. If you are a buyer, same answer. You, the buyer, get to take advantage of a beautiful market. Dig in!
Patrick Harfst, CRS
www.ArizonaHomeLocator.com
;)
;)
