The NAR published their February existing home sales report today.  It showed that home sales were up 5.1% from last month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.72 million.  Listing inventory was also up 5.2% from last month to 3.798 million units.  The result is that the month's supply of housing currently stands at a 9.7 month supply, which is exactly what it was in February of 2008.  The only difference being that the median home value today is worth -15.5 less than it was last year.  Do you see the problem?

Despite loan modifications efforts, lower mortgage rates, increases in housing affordability, first time home buyer tax credits, and foreclosure moratoriums, the housing market is not in any better condition today than it was last year.  The only thing that has changed is that homeowners have less equity and banks have more distressed assets on their hands.

Everybody keeps saying that we need to give these "new" efforts by the new administration time, but the problem is that the new efforts are not new at all, they are the same thing we have been doing for the past year only with a different name to them.  We have been doing loan modifications efforts, we have been lowering mortgage rates, we have been increasing housing affordability, we have had a first time home buyer tax credit, we have had foreclosure moratoriums, and yet none of this is having any meaningful impact on impacting housing or subsequently the banking system or broader economy.

It is said that insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results.  And the problem with this insanity is that we are bankrupting the next generation of Americans in the process.

  

 

  

 
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6 Comments on Existing Home Sales Report: The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same

MAR
23

I want to thank you for your ongoing commentary on the financial news. I really depend on you to see through the garbage, hype, and shallowness of the normal news outlets.

David Smith
2:46pm • #1
437,317 Points 47 Featured Posts Outside Blog

So what would you suggest? Without these efforts the value of Real Estate would have dropped even further.

5:55pm • #2
178,248 Points 13 Featured Posts

David:  Thank you, I really appreciate your comment.

Bill:  I would suggest the same thing I have been writing my representatives about for over a year.  The same thing I wrote a book about in September.  And the same thing I continue to write about in this blog.  Repeal the Tax Reform Act of 1986 as it pertains to investment real estate passive loss and income limitations and offer a first year 50% accelerated depreciation bonus available to all Americans, not just "real estate professionals".  In other words, provide an incentive for Americans that have the capital and credit to invest in real estate and get the excess inventory off the books.

Between the Fed and Congress, we have spent over $1.5 trillion on housing and mortgages and nothing meaningful has been accomplished.

Perhaps things would be worse off without it, I don't know, but I think that we have received a very anemic return on that investment, if any at all.

6:12pm • #3
MAR
24
189,916 Points

Mark- Nice post again. The passive income law is absurd anyways. There is proof that since its inception it has slowed down the investing by small to mid scale folks.

8:21am • #4
8 Featured Posts

This doesn't surprise me much at all.  You'd think for the money that's gone into trying to improve the situation we'd have gotten a little bit more of a return on the investment. 

They should have just let everything bottom out naturally. We'd be well on the road to recovery by now if they had just stopped delaying the inevitable.

 

11:55pm • #5
APR
07
Localism Sponsor

Mark,

I have heard, but don't know how to confirm, that not much is being done by lenders on modification programs. Lenders do not seem to be too staffed to handle short sales, so I'm thinking they are no better equipped to work on modification programs either. Even with the equity evaporation, I believe there are lots of homeowners in distress that would tough it out and keep their homes if a balanced modification deal could be done. What do you think?

8:42pm • #6

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Mark MacKenzie

Phoenix, AZ

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Mark MacKenzie Real Estate Planning

Office Phone: (480) 600-0330

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