The administration's new banking rescue plan was officially released this morning after the details of it had been leaked over the weekend.  It sure didn't take long but pretty much every economist and financial blogger not connected with Wall Street has already ripped it to shreds calling it everything from a massive tax payer fraud, another big bank hand out and a massive government sponsored confidence game.  Economist and former Nobel prize winner Paul Krugman spent no less than 3 posts since Saturday blasting it.  While Mike Shedlock (Mish) went so far as to proclaim Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner the architect of this plan (and of many of the bank bailouts and AIG bailout fame/shame), "the most dangerous man in America"

Actually it was pretty easy to rip apart quickly as it's basically a repackaged version of former treasury secretary Hank Paulson's proposed plan which was also blasted to smithereens.  Of course it's unfair to blast a plan without providing your own for saving the banking system, so here goes...

Unlike the administration, FED and Treasury department I do NOT believe solving the banking crisis will solve the our economic or housing problems, but we still need to solve it or it will contribute to things getting much worse.  Surprisingly we already have a good solution to the banking crisis, one that was born out of previous banking crisis', and that has been battle tested and has worked great for over 70 years in dealing with thousands of banks.  It's called FDIC receivership, and it was notably used recently for dealing with several large institutions including Washington Mutual and IndyMac.

Banks are legally mandated to carry a certain amount of cash reserves relative to their loans and other assets and liabilities to ensure they can safely pay depositors that want to withdraw funds.  If they fall below this threshold the FDIC and OTS is required to come in and seize the institution taking it into receivership to protect both depositors and tax payers.  This is one of the things you submit to when operating a bank in the US and to be able to have your deposits FDIC insured. 

In FDIC receivership, the bank is essentially cleaned up to be return to private operation as quickly as possible.  Incompetent management is given the boot, the books are combed over looking for fraud, liabilities are zero'd out with stock holders and then bond holders taking the first loss while depositors are protected.  The now clean in unencumbered bank is then sold off to another bank either in whole or in pieces whatever, is more workable.  It's different from the concept of nationalization as the whole goal is to return the bank to private operation in short order.  In fact receivership often only lasts days and appears near instantaneous to the public.

Now the crisis in our banking system, is that a huge number of banks including several or the very largest in the US would prove to be below reserve requirements if they were to use proper accounting, write down their bad loans and assets.  Falling below these reserves would mean the FDIC would legally required to take these banks into receivership to protect depositors and tax payers.   The Treasury rescue plans all revolve around trying to keep the banks above reserve requirements by pumping cash into them and making accounting/regulatory changes so they don't have to properly account for losses.  Why?  

While, FDIC receivership is a very effective and well tested for dealing with these sorts of banking crisis', it also has a high political cost.  The incompetent bank executives that have been lining the politicians pockets for years would almost certainly find themselves out of a job, and many on Wall Street would eat substantial losses on stock and bond holdings in these banks.  There is also the fact that people don't want to admit some of the banks that have been mainstays of the US banking system for decades may in fact be failures. I guess it just comes down to the fact there isn't the political will in Washington to actually solve the crisis.

 

29 Comments on The solution to the banking crisis

MAR
23
821,924 Points 213 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router

Well of course that would work for the banks, but not for AIG.  If the banks were permitted to go into receivership and their deposits taken over by solvent banks, their bad assets would still have to be paid by AIG. 

Of course, you're right about the political system dictating what was and will continue to be done. 

We're doomed.

5:28pm • #1
1 Featured Post

Matt - Their goal all along has been to come with a plan to off-load these toxic assets onto the taxpayers via loans, guarantees, and stock purchases at a price well over the market value. You nailed it when you characterized their actions as political economics.

5:41pm • #2
1,088,513 Points 57 Featured Posts

Lenn: I'd propose what several others have proposed.  Legislating the receivership model for other large financial institutions.  Taking AIG into receivership and unwinding it would be a lot better than what we are doing right now.

5:48pm • #3

I do not believe that we are "doomed". And I believe that there is more than one way to solve the current problems, However, I did wonder myself why the failing banks were not allowed to be taken over by the FDIC (much as they were in the late 80's when the 'flipping condos' hit Texas as well as other states).   I did  a bit of research asking that question.  the answer seemed to be that there are not enough healthy financial institutions to absorb the failing ones.  What do yu think?

5:49pm • #4
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Indeed it would.  Fanny and Freddie are in receivership.  They're still functioning. 

What I'd like to see is AIG in bankruptcy chapter 11 so the trustee could void all executory contracts and get the TARP payments back from them.  That's about $170,000,000,000 and we wouldn't have to dump more money down that black hole. 

5:54pm • #5
1,088,513 Points 57 Featured Posts

Woops, forgot to run the post through spellcheck, fixed...

5:57pm • #6
177,177 Points 13 Featured Posts

Matt,

I always enjoy your insightful posts.

Isn't there still the concern with Citi, B of A (Merrill) and other major banks and financial institutions about the derivatives they have on their books?

Wouldn't receivership have the same impact that allowing Lehman Brothers to fail had on the broader financial markets?

6:00pm • #7
Outside Blog Hit Router

"I guess it just comes down to the fact there isn't the political will in Washington to actually solve the crisis."

OMG - so . . .  we don't have 'change'?

6:00pm • #8
1,088,513 Points 57 Featured Posts

Matt: Receivership basically allows for a much more orderly unwind of an institution than a bankruptcy.  Derivative transactions would end up being unwound.  Granted it would cause receivership for an institution such as Bank of America that has a ton of them to last for a while. 

The market impact of Lehman Brothers failing could have been significantly lessened could they have been taken into receivership.  Being an investment bank they did not fall under the FDIC's domain, thus there wasn't a legal precident at the time for receivership.

6:07pm • #9
Outside Blog Hit Router

I think at times we underestimate the global ramifications of taking pretty much every single bank in the United States into receivership and then attempting to unwind the derivatives and CDS liabilities.  This has been the issue all along with AIG.  The global impact of an AIG failure would make the 1920s Weimar Republic look like a picnic due to the fully integrated global economy we currently face. 

My limited understanding from reading the financial theory behind all of this is that there isn't sufficient assets globally to address the 35:1 up to 50:1 leverage positions many of these financial behemoths managed to create.  Thus, at some point, if we want to allow institutions to fail (a popular outcry currently) the issue could be a two or three decade rebuilding of the world economies as government after government go bankrupt (see Iceland for an example of what could happen globally).

What the current administration is trying to accomplish (only time will tell if it is effective) is keeping the ship moving forward while the crew and passengers bail water as fast as possible.  This ship may still sink, before reaching shore but to allow all of these global financial institutions to fail would be the equivalent of cuttting the ship's engines and hoping just the water bailing process will work. 

Personally, I would like to keep heading toward landfall while bailing water.......

6:43pm • #10
597,156 Points 244 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Great stuff Matt. I was thinking about your last post yesterday and one of the first thoughts I had was why not let these companies file chap 11. I guess the receivership thing is very similar. What ever happens we need outside eyeballs looking at some books.

7:12pm • #11
142,890 Points 4 Featured Posts

It sure beats the Republicans acting, if you can call it that, like herbert Hoover. Your points are well made, and Paulson helped create a mess. I do have faith that Obama is a concensus builder and will work the plan, and I hope the Republican Party can step up and get constructive. I am a Democrat who believes in the two party system, and worry that the Democrats will screw up as badly as the Bush Administration. 

7:18pm • #12

Interesting take, Matt...  I believe your plan would be effective.  I also truly enjoy reading the opinions of others in the comments...  I wish the government would be proactive and create a master plan, before taking action.  All of this stimulus seems to be reactive and sporadic. 

7:28pm • #13
Outside Blog Hit Router

You are absolutely correct.  The failing banks should be taken over by the FDIC.  It has worked in the past and will work in this scenario.  If the argument is that these instituation are to big to be taken over by the FDIC then we need regulations that cap the size of banking companies so we don't run into this problem again.

8:06pm • #14

Timely article by Matt Heaton and prescient observations from Craig Frazer. By September, we will have a pretty good idea if we are going to avoid the other shoe dropping.

The international political instability that could be exacerbated by a failure of Obama/world initiatives is not something any thinking person wants to really experience.

The scope of the emotional component in the current marketplace creates an unfortunate complexity to properly adjusting conventional economic theories to effectively deal with today's emerging challenges.

Ask Alan Greenspan; his free market economy was much more right than wrong. He, like many of us, did not believe that heretofore staid banking community could collectively ignore contradiction of sound fiscal policy.

The rules have changed. We must craft stability in new ways if we are to emerge fairly quickly from this economic calamity. Once done, maybe We The People will finally demand accountability. It's past due.

William Jones
8:17pm • #15
202,247 Points 34 Featured Posts Outside Blog

How can a real price for these assets be found when the downside risk for the private investors is so limited by the government?  It's like "heads I win, tails you lose".  The investors are taking a little risk and the taxpayer is getting a small possible reward in order to make it sound like it's a good deal for everyone involved.

It's kind of like people paying high prices for a home because they got a 100% non-recourse mortgage.  They really didn't have much to lose so they were OK with paying high prices.  Now the government is a bank giving out a subprime loan.  It's just that instead of the borrowerer being sub-prime, the asset is sub-prime.  Instead of hoping the borrower improves financially in the future, we are hoping the assets improve in value in the future. 

Non-recourse loans and government guarantees only serve to inflate the values of these assets therefore it's just more of a bank bailout.

8:19pm • #16
424,300 Points 10 Featured Posts Outside Blog

The solution to the banking crisis is to get people working and making as much money as they used to make.  But at least the government is trying.   i don't think there is any one right answer

8:33pm • #17
166,119 Points 17 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

"...several or the very largest in the US would prove to be below reserve requirements if they were to use proper accounting, write down their bad loans and assets." 

This explains the incredibly low prices for newly listed REO's.  They are coming onto the market so far below what seems reasonable and most are selling within 1-2 days.  Banks just want to be rid of them.

8:55pm • #18
1,088,513 Points 57 Featured Posts

Tim: You're exactly right the Geithner plan basically encourages the overpricing of the assets and opens the doors for all kinds of "game playing" by the banks.  Unless they are right and the assets really are simply being undervalued right now, then all it does is shift the losses from the banks to the tax payer.

Craig: The problem is all the "solutions" over the last two years to try and keep the ship afloat is that they are in fact increasing the systematic risk rather than decreasing it.  You correctly pointed out the problem is the overall leverage and debt in the system, but the FED and Treasury keep encouraging increased leverage instead of working to orderly unwinding it, the Geithner plan being a prime example.  It's the approach of simply bailing water as opposed to addressing underlying causes that gets you to the point where single failures can take whole economies and governments down.

The truth is there while there are a lot of banks insolvent banks out there, but there are also plenty of solid ones. The problem is there is so much fraud, book cooking and obfuscation of balance sheets that it's nearly impossible to tell the good frm the bad.  This means that the credit markets make the assumption that everyone is dirty, and it takes the good banks down along with the bad.  Think about it like like quarantining someone with an infectious disease, everyone else is put as risk.

 

9:27pm • #19
563,663 Points 34 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router

I'm still trying to see the 'Change' of having the guy that was an architect of the failed plan of the last administration re-writing the failed plan for the new administration. 

And you are right that the political class doesn't have the nads to stand up and do what is right.

10:29pm • #21
240,021 Points 2 Featured Posts Hit Router

Hi Matt -- If the experts don't know how to solve it, I'm not sure who does.  I know I haven't a clue...

10:34pm • #23

In my (not so) humble opinion, what the government is doing is the best that could be done in the current circumstances. I am sure that there is a lot of corruption but I don't have doubt in my mind that Ben Bernanke is not taking the best route possible in these circumstances.

This not a million dollar issue. We are talking tens, if not hundreds, of trillions of dollars here and no one is going to allow the government to take the best possible route if their respective WIIFM interests are hurt.

Politicians are going to earmark any bill. So get used to it. Tallking about this billion or that billion is busy-talk. That's all.

The stock market's current upwards movement is because of the uptick rule. Now the shorts are covering before the uptick is reinstated in April. What will happen in the fall. The stock market will go back on a slower decline until American "Firm" reinvents itself just like it did in the 80s.

Also the macro talk about business cycle theory, monetarism, Keynesianism, etc.., will have to re-negotiate their validity with the new 1 billion strong networked crowd.

The broker-centric world of real estate will change into a world where agents will become brokers and the Internet will be their Big Bad Broker. Who needs C21, Coldwell Banker, Re/Max, et.al.?

My additional thoughs on banking and real estate crises can be found at http://www.bankfreeinvesting.com/blog/?p=292

10:48pm • #24
1,088,513 Points 57 Featured Posts

Lee I removed the comment, because at first glance there was excess amounts of content that was either off topic or marketing for a service. 

Feel free to comment but please keep it on topic, and if the comment is going to be multiple pages in length please write it as a post and link to it.

10:54pm • #25
MAR
24
Outside Blog Hit Router

The truth is there while there are a lot of banks insolvent banks out there, but there are also plenty of solid ones.

Actually Matt, I think that is the problem.  In the analysis done by Paulson and then Geithner as well as the FDIC and the Fed all seem to indicate there aren't plenty of solid ones out there (at least domestically) to absorb the costs of the troubled ones.  Even the ones that appear stable on paper (e.g. Wells Fargo) are facing serious potential issues if the credit markets continue to remain "stuck."

The most viable banking institutions are located where?  You guessed it, the middle east.  What does everyone think the long term consequences would be if banks in Dubai, the UAB, Bahrain and others started taking over the remaing banking assets in this country for the purposes of stabilization?  I'd rather have to answer to a debt-ridden US Treasury department than to the shieks in the middle east.

This whole global economy thing has some real downsides......

9:12am • #28

Put your money under the mattress.

Dana

10:25am • #29
1,088,513 Points 57 Featured Posts

Craig, I've done the analysis on A LOT of banks myself, starting back in March of 2007.  Up until 6 months ago I was a fairly active short seller in the financial sector and caught many of the banks that imploded long before they appeared to be in trouble.  There's still a lot of rot out there, the example one you picked Wells Fargo actually looks pretty damn bad when you dig, they are hiding a metric ton of crap paper, even though some of the headline numbers appear to make them look stable.

But, the MAJORITY of banks are in decent shape and would be able to ride things out.  The problem is that everybody is assumed guilty right now, so the good ones are being affected as much as the bad ones by the credit crisis.  This is one area where attempting to paper over the problem and hide it is making the effects of the credit crisis much worse, by substantially harming the good banks.  All we are doing right now is digging ourselves a bigger whole instead of trying to climb out.

Mentioning the consequences of Arab banks taking over ours is simply fear mongering.  You wouldn't see non US banks taking over the US ones in receivership.  If you thing some of our banks are in trouble, the problems in our banking system our nothing compared to some of the ones across the pond.

12:08pm • #30
Outside Blog Hit Router

Mentioning the consequences of Arab banks taking over ours is simply fear mongering. You wouldn't see non US banks taking over the US ones in receivership. If you thing some of our banks are in trouble, the problems in our banking system our nothing compared to some of the ones across the pond.

No attempt at fear mongering, just an acknowledgment of the financial creep occuring across national borders.  Look at the hundreds of millions of dollars which flowed through AIG as part of the bailout to national banks in Germany, Switzerland and in several asian markets.  As a short seller, I am sure you have identified several minority shareholders who are foreign nationals (not only individuals but corporate interests and foreign hedge funds).

Take a look at the list Jeff Corbett highlighted in his Active Rain post a while back.

My observation was simply to highligt the complexity of trying to unravel the financial instruments involved in propogating this crisis.  It just seems from my untrained eye that regardless of what strings you pull on to unravel the quagmire, you will end up tugging on something that creates an even larger issue.

BTW - Congratulations on shorting the financial sector.  Great call.....

2:27pm • #31
354,800 Points 9 Featured Posts Outside Blog

If only we had a crystal ball that really worked and could see ahead to next year or 5 years down the road.  The government seems to keep coming up with a different plan every day and telling us that each one must be put in place or we're all going down the tube.  The guys in Washington making these decisions should read your post.

10:35pm • #32
APR
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diaina
6:41am • #33

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Matt Heaton

Bothell, WA

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