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The Fed paused rate hikes, as the markets were expecting. The markets were hung up on Fed Chairman Powell's speech where he indicated that rates would be higher for longer than originally anticipated. The market originally priced in a rate cut in Q2 of next year but now they don't think there wi...

We had a volatile week with renewed fears that the Fed will continue its rate hikes. On Thursday, initial jobless claims came in lower than expected (216k actual vs the 229k estimate). The labor market data has been resilient in the face of inflation and higher rates. As I’ve mentioned before, th...

We didn’t have much economic data come out last week (as we do this week) but investors were anxiously waiting for Powell’s Speech on Friday at Jackson Hole. You can read the speech here.Powell opened the speech by reiterating the Fed’s job of bringing down inflation to 2%. He also mentioned how...

 How high can you go?The average US mortgage rate has surged to 7.1% — a level it has not reached for over two decades, according to data published by Freddie Mac last week — as sustained interest rate rises from the Federal Reserve continue to filter through into the mortgage market.Locked-inThe...

The Fed meets at Jackson Hole end of August and that is what they will be focused on for the next two weeks. In the meantime, rates have hit new annual, and multi-decade, highs on the back of economic momentum and a lack of clarity on Fed policy.Both CPI and PPI showed inflation ticked up, bucki...

Inflation, for the first time, has ticked up on the year-over-year charts. CPI and PPI both came in higher, bucking the downtrend we have been in. Most of the increase in inflation is due to an increase in shelter costs and real wages. The wages will be frowned upon by the Fed as they want a weak...

We saw last Friday’s jobs come in lower than expectations, however, the unemployment number ticked lower to 3.5%. With a labor market this “strong”, the Fed will have no choice but to keep rates up longer than expected.Remember, the Fed believes that a strong labor market, along with increased w...

The Fed did exactly what markets expected and raised rates by 25bps. During his speech, Chairman Powell continued to say that the Fed will be making future interest rate decisions based on the economic data. Two days after this speech, the Fed’s preferred inflation report, the PCE, came in lower...

We have an important week ahead of us. The Fed is meeting this week and announcing its rate decision on Wednesday. Markets are betting that there will be close to a 100% chance of a 25bp rate hike. Housing data last week showed signs of slowing from the month before. Economic indicators are lower...

We are coming off a rebound week with regard to interest rates. The week before we saw a jump in rates due to the strong labor market numbers. Remember, the Fed wants a weaker labor market before it cuts rates. Right now, the labor market remains the main data point for the Fed to continue its r...