mortgage: Rate Watch 8/15/2022 - 08/15/22 08:17 AM
Last week’s CPI report came in lower on a year-over-year basis at 8.5% (vs 9.1% the month before). The month-over-month increase was at 0%. I had a feeling this report would come lower than expectations and am hopeful that it will be the start of a trend.
A September rate hike will still occur, even if September CPI comes in lower. I think our best case scenario is that September follows a similar path as August’s CPI report with maybe a month-over-month decrease. Then we get a 50bp rate hike from the Fed.
This week, we hear from some Fed members and get the … (0 comments)

mortgage: Rate Watch As the Second Half Begins - 07/11/22 08:38 AM
We saw rates pop last Friday. This was due to a strong jobs report. If there is strong economic data, the Fed will translate that data to mean the economy is doing well (and no need to fear a recession) and therefore more aggressive rate hikes to battle inflation are warranted. The markets will cheers to the bad news/data because that means the Fed won’t raise rates.
The unemployment data, however, does not consider everyone who is unemployed. For example, it only considers those that are not working but actively looking for work within the past 4 weeks (if you are unemployed … (3 comments)

mortgage: Happy 4th of July Rate Watch - 07/04/22 08:56 PM
Playing golf today so I’m going to keep this one short and sweet. We hear from some Fed presidents this week and receive some labor statistics.
In The News
Job Openings and Quits FOMC Minutes  
Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims St. Louis Fed President James Bullard Speaks Fed Gov. Christopher Waller Speaks at NABE Conference  
Unemployment Rate Labor Force Participation rate (ages 25-54)  
That’s it for this week. Next week we get inflation/CPI data.
Chart Check(see above)
We saw buyers reenter the bond market last week as they may be placing their bets already on MoM CPI numbers showing a decline in … (3 comments)

mortgage: Rate Watch 6/13/22 - Yikes! - 06/13/22 08:55 AM
In The News
The story that is controlling the media right now is inflation. Friday’s numbers showed inflation came in higher than expected and at a new 40-year high. The markets reacted accordingly: a stock market sell-off and mortgage rate increases. The problem now is that this opens the door for the Fed to do a 75bp rate hike this week (a 50bp hike is expected). A 75bp hike will essentially double the rate to 1.5%. If there was ever a time for the Fed to do a surprise hike/increase, now is the time.
Although the short-term volatility will be chaotic (remember, I said … (3 comments)

mortgage: Rate Watch 5/22/22 - 05/22/22 07:13 PM
Last week Fed Chairman Powell announced how the Fed will do whatever is necessary to battle inflation. He also keeps referring to his admiration of Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, who famously increased interest rates to near 20% levels in order to battle inflation. This ultimately helped battle inflation but also was credited for sending unemployment to double digits and adding fuel to the recession that occurred in the early 1980s. The Fed’s 50bp rate hike is nothing compared to what Volcker did, but the Fed has laid out plans to increase rates a total of 10 times this year. Powell’s jawboning … (1 comments)

mortgage: Weekly Rate Watch - Rhetoric Rules - 04/18/22 09:17 AM
Last week started off with a rough Monday but then markets rejoiced when CPI numbers came out Tuesday. Even though CPI inflation numbers came in at 8.5%, slightly higher than expectations, the markets dug into the month-over-month increase of a little over 6% and saw the month-to-month inflationary momentum slowing. Some participants were led to believe that inflation has peaked. I don’t think this is true and the markets responded accordingly the next few days which led us to a worsening reprice.
I’ll be very surprised if inflation has peaked. However, it is more important to study the market’s reaction. I said … (0 comments)

mortgage: Rate Watch 4/11/2022 - 04/11/22 09:23 AM
Chart Check (see above)
Don't blame the messenger
We continue to live in our downtrend channel. We may push the boundaries of resistance/support a little bit, but I expect the downtrend to continue for now (especially as the Fed “plans” to unload the balance sheet). I haven’t spoken about the 50 and 200 DMA in a little while but wanted to show how there is no indication of the 50 DMA (black line) crossing over the 200 DMA (blue line). Remember, when the 50 DMA crosses over the 200 DMA from below to on top, that is a bullish (lagging) indicator and we … (1 comments)

mortgage: Rate Watch - The "Excitement" continues - 04/04/22 09:58 AM
 "Our biggest challenge today is completing homes, not selling them, as demand continues to be robust." – Jeff Kaminski, CFO KB Homes
Let's GO!
We have the potential for a volatile 2 week period ahead of us. This week, we hear from a lot of Fed members ahead of next week’s (4/11 & 4/12) inflation data. The markets will be weighing every word closely this week. For the inflation data after, we just need to see things go from bad, to less bad, in order to see a positive reaction in the bond markets. Investors will be trading the turning tides of the trend, … (1 comments)

mortgage: Rate Watch Roller Coaster - 03/14/22 08:37 AM
“We’re likely to see another year in which 12-month inflation numbers remain uncomfortably high.” – US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen
I expect massive volatility this week as the war with Russia and Ukraine continues. A few stories have developed this past weekend.
Russia has asked China for assistance with military equipment and aid, along with economic purposes. If China agrees to support Russia, expect mass market volatility.  
“We are communicating directly, privately to Beijing that there will absolutely be consequences for large-scale sanctions evasion efforts or support to Russia to backfill them” – Jake Sullivan, White House National Security Advisor
Iran led a missile attack that struck Erbil, … (19 comments)

mortgage: Rate Watch For Twosday 2/22/22 - 02/22/22 02:49 PM
“It’s not tight policy. Don’t let anybody tell you it’s tight policy,” he said. “It’s removal of accommodation that will signal that we take our responsibility seriously.” – St. Louis Fed Pres. Bullard
I have been saying repeatedly that the Fed will be forced to make moves or else be deemed incompetent in the fight against inflation. Fed Pres. Bullard is playing to the cameras though when he says “it’s not tight policy.” Raising interest rates and decreasing the balance sheet is definitely a tight policy. He wants to see 1% hikes by July and many more to follow. This hawkish stance is … (0 comments)

mortgage: Mortgage rates lower for the first time in more than two months - 01/06/17 12:36 PM

Fixed mortgage rates, which have been on a tear since the presidential election, retreated this week, falling for the first time in nine weeks.
According to the latest data released Thursday by Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate average tumbled to 4.2 percent with an average 0.5 point. (Points are fees paid to a lender equal to 1 percent of the loan amount.) It was 4.32 percent a week ago and 3.97 percent a year ago.
Read the source article at The Washington Post 

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mortgage: New Rule will Save FHA Borrowers $$$$ - 03/31/14 08:41 AM
Can you be charged interest on your mortgage even after you've fully paid it off? Can the meter keep running when you owe the bank nothing — your principal balance is zero?
Surprise! Much to the chagrin of large numbers of home sellers and refinancers, the answer for years has been yes. If your loan was insured by the FHA and you paid it off before maturity, at closing you'd be expected to cough up a full month's interest, no matter what day of the month you actually settled.
Even if you closed on March 2, for instance, you'd be charged interest … (0 comments)

mortgage: 3 Secrets To a Better Business Mind! - 03/31/14 08:35 AM
It's commonly held that intelligence is set from birth, meaning there's no way to "boost" brainpower. But many studies prove the opposite. A combination of lifestyle adjustments and mental exercises can not only increase intelligence, but also improve general brain health.
The following tips can help boost mental activity and increase your intelligence...all of which helps your business!
1. Keep Memorizing. There is no shortage of contemporary studies that show a powerful correlation between a strong working memory and overall intelligence. A good memory has also been shown to slow down mental aging. Start small by memorizing your to-do list or daily … (0 comments)

mortgage: How do you choose the RIGHT neighborhood? - 03/26/14 07:59 AM
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mortgage: And We're Off - 01/02/14 11:03 AM
The new year kicks off with Mortgage Bonds trading slightly higher as Stocks are lower, taking a break after finishing 2013 at record closing levels.  The benchmark 4% coupon continues to trade in a sideways range with no clear catalyst to push prices higher. 
The Labor Department reported this morning that Weekly Initial Jobless Claims fell by 2K to 339K, above the 333K expected.  On December 28, long term benefits for those collecting unemployment insurance expired leaving 1.3 million Americans without weekly checks.  It is likely that Congress will compromise and do something to extend these benefits.
The ISM Index most … (0 comments)

mortgage: Buy Now, Buy Now, Buy Now! - 12/13/13 02:22 AM
Let me sum up the current lending environment. Buy Now, Buy Now, Buy Now! Get Your Mortgage While it's Hot!
Come January, QM will make lending more restrictive, FHA loan limits have been cut across the board and it looks like the Fed could begin tapering sooner than expected.
Stronger than expected economic data and progress on a budget deal in Congress caused investors to move forward their expected timing for the Fed to begin to scale back its bond purchases. This hurt both stocks and bonds, and mortgage rates ended the week a little higher.
Fed officials have revealed … (2 comments)

mortgage: Bonds Could actually benefit if the Fed begins tapering. - 11/25/13 03:45 AM
Current Price of FNMA 4.0% Bond: $104.62, +9bp
Today’s Rate - FHA 203(k) – 3.750% (0.554) 5.250% (7.307)
Today’s Rate - HECM Fixed – 4.750% (5.750) 5.180% (8.000)
Today’s Rate - Stated Income – 5/1 ARM – 4.750% (0.000)
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Mortgage Bonds start this holiday shortened week higher as Traders continue to ponder when the Fed will start to taper QE3.  There is no historical reference as to how completely Fed driven the markets have become and the Fed escaping QE will not be a safe path and there is simply no easy exit … (0 comments)

mortgage: Fannie nearly pays off bailout! - 11/06/13 10:56 PM
Mortgage giant Fannie Mae earned $8.7 billion in the July through September period, its seventh straight profitable quarter. The government-controlled company will have nearly repaid in full its taxpayer bailout of five years ago, after paying its third-quarter dividend.
Fannie said Thursday its earnings were boosted by the rise in home prices during the quarter, which enabled it to reduce its reserves set aside for losses on mortgages.
The earnings for the latest period compared with net income of $1.8 billion in the third quarter of 2012.
Washington-based Fannie said it will pay a dividend of $8.6 billion … (2 comments)

mortgage: Tapering likely delayed until end of first quarter 2014 - 10/30/13 02:51 AM
It's Fed Day!The Federal Open Market Commitee (FOMC) statement is set to be released this afternoon around 2:00pm ET and we don't see any big surprises.  The Fed Funds Rate, currently at 0.25%, will remain unchanged and will continue to remain at current levels until at least 2015.  Tapering will most likely not begin in 2013 and will be put off until at least the end of Q1 2014. 
Ahead of the big event, Mortgage Bonds continue to trade in a sideways pattern as investors feel that there is a possibility that the Fed could announce a December taper, but … (0 comments)





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