mortgage rates: What's Ahead for Mortgage Rates This Week - April 22nd, 2024
- 04/22/24 06:12 AM
Last week, the largest report was the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, leading into chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell speaking on the current state of the economy and the stance of the Federal Reserve. While the Beige Book has indicated some positive movement towards a strong economy, there have been many indicators from all inflation data that inflation has yet to be tamed to the standards of the Federal Reserve.
This was punctuated by Jerome Powell, as he discussed at length the Federal Reserve has yet to feel inflation is under control. This has dispelled all notion there will be a … (2 comments)
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mortgage rates: What's Ahead for Mortgage Rates This Week - April 15th, 2024
- 04/15/24 06:52 AM
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is showing higher than expected inflation, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) is showing lower than expected inflation. The two are in conflict with each other; however, the Consumer Price Index is still the far greater indicator for inflation as it directly impacts the cost of living for everyone, not just production assets.
Given the Federal Reserve’s recent speeches it would seem that there is very likely to be a delay in the rate cuts this upcoming quarter. They have stated numerous times they are driven largely by data and that data has proven that inflation is … (2 comments)
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mortgage rates: What's Ahead for Mortgage Rates This Week - April 1st, 2024
- 04/01/24 08:05 AM
As expected from the prior inflation reports with CPI and PPI, the PCE index had also shown the same corollary among its data points, reporting a higher than expected increase for the month of February across all products.
In addition, the Chicago PMI had shown a declining trend of activity among businesses for the 6th week in a row. All this points to that there might be a case for the Federal Reserve to continue holding rates in the next rate decision coming up in the summer of 2024. There has been much speculation that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates … (0 comments)
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mortgage rates: What's Ahead for Mortgage Rates This Week - March 25th, 2024
- 03/25/24 06:12 AM
While it’s not a set deal, the Federal Reserve does appear to be on track for a June rate cut, and following its two-day policy meeting, the central bank’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee said it will keep its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range between 5.25%-5.5% until then.
Additionally, the government has also avoided another shut down as a series of rushed bills had approved spending for the government by another 1.2 trillion dollars. This is good news for lending markets as the debt ceiling has previously tied up rate decisions in the past.
FOMC Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee has … (0 comments)
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mortgage rates: What's Ahead for Mortgage Rates This Week - March 18th, 2024
- 03/18/24 06:43 AM
Last week’s inflation data came in at a higher rate than expected, with Price Producer Index (PPI) numbers showing more than double the expected inflation gain.
With both CPI and PPI being over the target, the steadfast certainty that the Federal Reserve will cut rates has now taken a step back, resulting in more tamed expectations for the near future.
With a mixed response from lending partners, this may end up rapidly changing in the next round of discussions with the Federal Reserve's Chairman Jerome Powell this coming week, as well as a final rate decision.
Consumer Price Index
Consumer prices matched the biggest … (1 comments)
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mortgage rates: What's Ahead for Mortgage Rates This Week - March 11th, 2024
- 03/11/24 08:15 AM
With a focus on the upcoming inflation data reports with CPI and PPI this week, the previous week was very light on data. The only relevant reports released were the non-farm payroll and U.S. trade balance data releases.
Job reports are showing robust hiring numbers and the trade balance remains within expectations. There appears to be to not much to fear coming from this next round of inflation data. Lending partners are reflecting this sentiment as they continue to cut rates.
Non-farm Payrolls
The economy created a greater-than-expected 275,000 new jobs in February, in a seemingly bullish display that could complicate the Federal … (1 comments)
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mortgage rates: What's Ahead for Mortgage Rates This Week - March 4th, 2024
- 03/04/24 06:20 AM
A number of important consumer related data reports were released last week, giving us a clearer picture on inflation impacts and the state of the economy on a broader scale. First up, looking at the First Revision of GDP numbers, we are seeing they had fallen slightly below expectations, but still showing the economy has not deflated at all as of the result of the prior years’ repeated rate hikes.
With inflation trending down, this makes for a convincing argument that rate cuts are due this year. This also sets the stage for the official consumer confidence reports, revealing mounting anxiety regarding … (0 comments)
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mortgage rates: What's Ahead for Mortgage Rates This Week - February 20th, 2024
- 02/20/24 08:29 AM
Last week's release of CPI and PPI resulted in slightly higher than expected inflation rates which led to speculation that the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates will likely come much further in the year than anticipated. There was some suspicion that if inflation rates would continue to exceed predictions, it could result in another rate hike. Lending partners have responded in kind with the first significant increase in lending rates since the end of November. However, The Federal Reserve will likely maintain its current stance.
Other reports such as US Retail Sales are showing a drop, but this is contrasted by … (0 comments)
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mortgage rates: What's Ahead for Mortgage Rates This Week - February 12th, 2024
- 02/12/24 10:19 AM
Next week is the release of Core CPI and PPI numbers for January, resulting in an extremely light week for the week. The only data release of note is the trade deficit and the usual unemployment reports. The current trade deficit for the U.S. is operating precisely within expectations and correlating GDP numbers. Next week will provide further guidance for the Federal Reserve as the next release of inflation data is released.
U.S. Trade Deficit
The U.S. trade deficit rose slightly in December, but the annual gap still fell to the lowest level in three years and added to the economy's strong performance … (1 comments)
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mortgage rates: What's Ahead for Mortgage Rates This Week - February 5th, 2024
- 02/05/24 06:42 AM
The largest and most impactful financial data being released is as always the Federal Reserve rate decision. This time it fit well within the expectations across the broader market and lending partners, in that the Federal Reserve still remains to hold the current standing, and is showing push back on any potential rate cuts coming March when the next rate decision is planned.
Most of the economic indicators from last year and this month have added fuel to the speculation that the Federal Reserve has largely met their goals and there is a strong upside pending rate cuts.
The other rates of note … (1 comments)
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mortgage rates: Mortgage Rate Locks When and How to Secure a Favorable Rate
- 01/29/24 08:32 AM
Rate locks play a crucial role in the mortgage application process, helping borrowers secure a favorable interest rate for their home loans. Here's an explanation of the importance of rate locks and when and how to secure the best rate:
Interest Rate Protection: Mortgage rates are subject to market fluctuations and can change daily or even multiple times a day. Rate locks protect borrowers from potential rate increases during the loan processing period.
Budgeting and Planning: Knowing the exact interest rate allows borrowers to budget more effectively and plan their finances with certainty. It prevents unexpected increases in monthly payments, helping borrowers manage … (0 comments)
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mortgage rates: What's Ahead for Mortgage Rates This Week - January 22nd, 2024
- 01/22/24 06:11 AM
The following week of CPI and PPI reports are typically lighter, with this week showing the same trend. There are a number of interesting interim reports that are worth noting however, including the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book which indicates the labor market has been cooling across most of the country. Following up is the Consumer Sentiment Reports, which is an excellent indicator for how the average consumer feels about their buying power, reflecting on the current economic conditions. Slower inflation, cheaper gas and a healthy economy have boosted optimism. Lastly, retail sales reports showing activity in December.
Consumer Sentiment Report
The numbers: Consumer … (0 comments)
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mortgage rates: What's Ahead for Mortgage Rates This Week - January 8th, 2024
- 01/08/24 07:55 AM
With the first FOMC minutes of the year, it sets the tone of the potential moves the Federal Reserve will make, with them remaining firm in their current stance of not employing any rate cuts, however given the more recent end of year reports, there is a likelihood that rate cuts will start this year. The last change in rates was in July of last year. The second most important report also being the final PMI (Manufacturing) numbers, which has largely met expectations without any irregularities.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
Manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 47.9 in December 2023 from a … (0 comments)
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mortgage rates: What's Ahead for Mortgage Rates This Week - January 2nd, 2024
- 01/02/24 07:57 AM
With the New Year, the final week only featured the normal reports of Jobless Claims, S&P Shiller Home Price Index (YoY), and the Chicago Business Barometer. All of them will have limited impact compared to the GDP and the Inflation data reports that have already been released.
S&P Shiller Home Price Index (YoY)
For the ninth consecutive month, home prices in prominent U.S. metropolitan regions have surged, reaching an all-time high. This increase is attributed to an ongoing shortage of available homes for sale. In October, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city house-price index, after seasonal adjustments, showed a 0.6% rise compared to the … (0 comments)
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mortgage rates: What's Ahead for Mortgage Rates This Week - December 26, 2023
- 12/26/23 10:05 AM
The final release of the GDP figures are the last large releases of the year before moving into Q1 of 2024, with the GDP report showing the economy had shown growth — particularly in Q3 with it tapering off by the end of the year. While the growth had been strong, it still was less than expected by analysts, however the final numbers do indicate we are on a track for a soft-landing and with the potential to all-together avoid a potential recession. The only other reports of note were the Personal Spending and PCE Index Prices.
GDP 2023 (Final)
The U.S. economy … (1 comments)
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mortgage rates: What's Ahead for Mortgage Rates This Week - December 18, 2023
- 12/18/23 10:39 AM
With both CPI and PPI reports well within expectations, there is a favorable reception across the broader market spectrum that these reports are a strong sign that the Federal Reverse will begin rate cuts in 2024. A soft landing for the economy is the primary goal of the Federal Reserve, and it would seem their measures have had the intended impact with the Jobless claims seeing a recent new low and many of the primary economic signals pointing to a stable 2024.
Consumer Price Index
The numbers: The cost of living rose a scant 0.1% in November thanks to lower oil prices, but … (0 comments)
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mortgage rates: What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - December 11, 2023
- 12/11/23 07:35 AM
This will be another light week before the next large releases of the CPI and PPI data. The overall unemployment numbers have been trending lower which will likely leave the Federal Reserve board in a state of suspension. They have made many assertive statements they do not intend to cut rates soon, but the signs of a soft landing for the economy are numerous, leading to much speculation about impending rate cuts. As a general indicator, lending partners have seen a near 6 week-to-week decline in lending rates. The largest data releases this week are the U.S. Unemployment Reports and Non-Farm … (0 comments)
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mortgage rates: What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - November 27, 2023
- 11/27/23 08:14 AM
There will be a very light week with the Holiday season approaching. The only notable reports to have come out for the week are the U.S. economic leading indicators, with nothing scheduled around Thanksgiving weekend. The median forecast for the leading indicators has shown that with the rest of the CPI and PPI data among other economic statistics, the economy does seem to be heading towards a soft landing as the Federal Reserve had initially targeted. The most notable changes are lending partners cutting rates with the potential for shifting economic policies and rate cuts in the future.
U.S. Leading Economic … (1 comments)
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mortgage rates: What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - November 20, 2023
- 11/20/23 07:32 AM
With the release of the CPI and PPI data, much of the broader market has been anticipating the potential cooling of inflation numbers month-to-month and those expectations have been met. There’s a consistent trend of inflation slowing down which brings a greater potential for the end of any rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, signaling a soft-landing for the economy which has been touted by Jerome Powell. With a soft landing, it does also signal a strong potential for the Federal Reserve to begin lowering rates in the coming future.
Consumer Price Index
Despite the report beating inflation expectations and leading to … (0 comments)
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mortgage rates: What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – November 6, 2023
- 11/06/23 08:38 AM
The most important data of the quarter was released, signaling the direction for many markets and where economic policy may be headed. Jerome Powell as well as other members of the Federal Reserve spoke about the state of economic policy, informing many parties about their decisions to remain hawkish or dovish in their approach. Further rate hikes could tell a story that inflation is not yet under control and the Federal Reserve feels the need to continue these rate hikes, which will have a significant impact on the lending markets as a whole.
FOMC Rate Decision
While Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized uncertainty … (0 comments)
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Last week, the largest report was the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, leading into chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell speaking on the current state of the economy and the stance of the Federal Reserve. While the Beige Book has indicated some positive movement towards a strong economy, there have been many indicators from all inflation data that inflation has yet to be tamed to the standards of the Federal Reserve.
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