mortgage bonds: A Week of Rising Rates - 07/18/08 02:01 AM
Mortgage Bonds have traded lowered for 4th straight session today losing just shy of 200 basis points over that period.  To get a rate quoted on Monday a client would now have to pay 2 points on their loan if they did not lock and wanted that , that is scary.
No economic news out this morning; movement today should be technically driven, the sellers are losing their steam and the buyers should be coming to market for a reversal in pricing.
 
Have a great weekend! 
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The above Mortgage Market Update information was provided by Bryan Flynn of Wells … (0 comments)

mortgage bonds: The Crisis of Confidence - 07/13/08 02:03 PM
The Crisis of Confidence....that's probably the best way to describe it. 
Friday was a crazy day in the financial markets being headlined by the potential failure of the government sponsors agencies (GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  At the start of Friday it was reported the government could take over these agencies over the weekend and perhaps they would dissolve and rename them.  Well both stocks opened sharply to the downside. 
At about 2pm there were rumors that the Bernanke was going to announce the opening of the discount window to Fannie and Freddie to help solve their liquidity problems.  By 315pm the … (2 comments)

mortgage bonds: Mortgage Market Update for Wednesday July 9th, 2008 - 07/08/08 11:13 PM
Bonds have been on a wild ride this week trading significantly lower until a sharp turn around Monday afternoon followed by a big rally yesterday, opening at their low and closing just off their high.  The 30 year fixed rate is at it's best level in just over a month. 
Bonds and stocks both finished up on the day which is not a normal occurrence.  Oil was down over $5 on the day, the biggest one day drop in about 4 months. 
Technically bonds broke through 2 levels of resistance and are just 28 bps below the 200 day moving average, which will be … (0 comments)

mortgage bonds: Mortgage Market update June 19th, 2008 - 06/19/08 02:49 PM
 Rates were down modestly today 22 bps on the day.  Bonds tested both the closest support and resisitance levels and closed right in the middle of it....meaning we are in another tug of war with the bulls and the bears going into next week's Fed meeting.  From a technical standpoint bonds are still "oversold" so hopefully we can break through the resistance and get interest rates back down a bit.
 
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The above Mortgage Market Update information was provided by Bryan Flynn of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage.  Bryan can be reached at Bryan.K.Flynn@wellsfargo.com or by phone at 508.363.2223.  Bryan has worked in … (3 comments)

mortgage bonds: Mortgage Rate Update for June 17th, 2008 - 06/17/08 10:26 AM
CPI was in line with expectations and PPI was a bit hotter this morning.  Mortgage Bonds seems to have drawn a line in the sand for now and are attempting a reversal.  We finished up 50 bps on the day closing right inbetween a dual layer of resistance.  Bonds are also highly oversold which should bring some more buyers into this market and drive the price up a bit, thus dropping rates.  Let's hope this continues tomorrow and we get rates back to the mid 6% range. 
 
For now we are FLOATING!
 
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The above Mortgage Market Update information was … (2 comments)

mortgage bonds: Mortgage Market Update for June 16,2008 - 06/16/08 02:50 AM
Mortgage backed securities are trading flat on the day down just 3bps this morning.  Bonds have been in a downward trend for the last 2 weeks and rates have crept up .75% higher nearing 7.00%.
The recent pressure on bonds are due to the pressure the heightened inflation concerns of the market.  The Fed meets next week and bonds traders are looking for short-term rates to be increased which will be great for long-term bond rates....however don't expect much more than shift in the policy statement.
Floating for now....
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mortgage bonds: Market Update for June 10th, 2008 - 06/11/08 12:28 AM
 
 
On a technical note, mortgage bonds are down 5 straight session at 216 bps points....rates have rose to the 6.625% area on a conventional 30 year fixed.  Bonds are oversold, which generally indicates that the buyers will be back and drive prices back up.  When bonds drop suddenly they have a tendancy to retest half of their loss so in this case upside of above 100 bps...there is no guarantee and a lot with have to do with what the future economic indicators say, but technically it hopefully will happen
That being said bonds are trading high by 28 … (0 comments)

mortgage bonds: Mortgage Rate Update for June 5th, 2008 - 06/05/08 04:08 AM

 
Mortgage Bonds are down again today after breaking through the 200 day moving average yesterday afternoon.  Initial jobless claims where lower than expected this morning and the umemployment rate is released tomorrow and given the inconsistentcy of this number recently we will remain in a LOCK.  Should be a big market mover tomorrow.  Stay tuned....
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mortgage bonds: Mortgage Market Update for June 4th, 2008 - 06/04/08 02:19 AM

Mortgage Bonds are trading lower this morning and surprise, surprise they are sitting right on the 200 day moving average.  On Monday bonds broke through and closed above the 200 DMA and did trade below it yesterday but closed in positive territory at the end of the trading day.  Technically yesterday was a bulls v. bears struggle because of the wide trading range so it could be another day of uncertainty in the mortgage bond market.
Productivity and ISM Index both came in better than consensus and stocks have been down over the past few days so I expect a … (0 comments)

mortgage bonds: Mortgage Rate Update for June 3rd, 2008 - 06/03/08 01:25 AM

Mortgage bonds are trading -6 bps this morning with no economic data on the docket for today.  Fed chairman Bernanke is speaking this morning about the economy and he could move markets, other than that bond trading will be driven by the stock market (stocks up bonds down vice versa)
Bonds did close above the 200 day moving average yesterday and if those levels can hold today bonds rates should be trending lower for the next few days.  Some employment, productivity and manufacturing numbers are to be released tomorrow that could sway the markets, but for now I recommend a … (2 comments)

mortgage bonds: Mortgage Rate Update for June 2nd, 2008 - 06/02/08 12:43 AM

Mortgage bonds are up 22 bps this morning.  After the selloff Friday afternoon, pricing should be right inline with the Friday morning rate sheets.  Just 9 bps higher and bonds hit the strong resistance level at the 200 day moving average.  Wait and see what rates do after the ISM number is released this morning at 10am.
The ISM is released on the 1st business day of each month reflecting the manufacturing industry for the previous month.  Its a survey of purchasing executives at roughly 300 industrial companies.  A number above 50 show expansion and below 50 contraction.
Last month's number was 48.6 and it is estimated this month … (1 comments)

mortgage bonds: Mortgage Rate Update for May 29th - 05/29/08 04:15 AM

Well so much for hoping rates would stay above the 200 day moving average as I hoped ina blog post last night:  May 28th Mortgage Bond Chart
Bonds gapped open lower today by a negative 31 bps.  We are now down 75 bps are should lock everything under the sun for now as there is still a decent amount of downside in the bond market.
The GDP grow for the first quarter was revised upward to 0.9% from 0.6% and the job market is still showing some stability.  Overall decent news.  Watch for my selling pressure this afternoon.  Bonds have … (0 comments)

mortgage bonds: May 28th Mortgage Bond Chart - 05/28/08 11:27 AM

Today I posted my mortgage market update for the day and recommended to FLOAT because we had tested a key level of support at the 200 day moving average which we did bounce off.  Just after 1pm, bonds did fall through that support and I changed my bias to a LOCK position, so I updated my blog to let people know .  Most lenders did reprice their rate sheet for the worse so it was the prudent advice.  The bond market did rally back however and close right above the 200 day moving average.  So tomorrow we should see some better pricing and if the PCE on Friday … (0 comments)

mortgage bonds: Mortgage Rate Update for May 28th - 05/28/08 01:58 AM

Durable goods orders were released this morning for April coming in better than expected at -0.5%.  The estimate was -1.5%.  Durable goods are manufacturing goods that are expect to last at least three years.  Usually a better than expected number means that companies are spending extra capital on equipment for future growth and the economy will be doing better down the road while inflation could be reduced.  However the March number of a growth of 0.1% was revised downward to -0.3% which the mortgage bond market is not taking well.  Bonds are down 31 bps after bouncing off their lows of 50 bps at the … (1 comments)

mortgage bonds: Mortgage Market Update May 27th, 2008 - 05/27/08 02:37 AM

Well Consumer Confidence just hit the wire for the month of May at 57.2 missing estimates of 61.0, meaning consumers are losing confidence faster than expected.  New home sales beat expectations by 6,000 and increased over last month by 17,000.  Although this is positive, new home sales account for just 16% of the total housing market. 
Standard & Poor's Case Shiller Index reported today a 14.4% drop in the last year and 16 consecutive months of decline.  The index rates only the 20 Major Metro Areas and in my opinion should not reflect the entire nation numbers because of increase … (2 comments)

mortgage bonds: Market Update May 23rd -Existing Home Sales - 05/23/08 03:54 AM
This morning Existing Home Sales were released and came in slightly better than expected.  4.89 mil v 4.85 mil.  But still on a downward trend year or year.  The US is off 17.5% in seasonally adjusted sales year over year and 8% in price during the same time frame.  The most interesting stat released was the inventory of homes which is just shy a year's supply at 11.2 months.  Let's hope the end is near.
Technically we are now below the 3 levels of resistance at the 25, 50 and 100 day moving averages and mortgage bonds are up today modestly … (0 comments)

mortgage bonds: Mortgage Rate Update May 22nd - 05/22/08 12:54 AM
This morning's initial jobless claims came out slightly better than expected 365k v 370k.  The stock futures are taking the news as a positive and money will move out of bonds and into stocks.  The DOW lost a decent amount over the past 2 days so expect a good day for stocks early on.  In other news oil prices hit another all-time high at over $135 per barrell this morning.  Bonds don't like the inflation in that.
Mortgage Bonds are down about 40 bps early this morning and are sitting on the key level of support.  The damage seems to be … (1 comments)

mortgage bonds: Fed Minutes Summary - 05/21/08 06:46 AM
The Federal Open Market Committee released their minutes from their April meeting at 2pm today
Here are the highlights:
They lowered their growth forecast of the economy slightly over the next few years.
They expect higher inflation and unemployment in 2008 and 2009.
They believe "risk is receding" in the credit markets (signals the worst is over in the credit crunch)
They have raised the bar for future rate cuts.  Cuts are unlikely going forward even if the economy slows further or contracts slightly.  Only a significant weakening in the economic outlook would likely prompt further easing by the FOMC.
So … (1 comments)

mortgage bonds: MOrtgage Rate Update May 21st - 05/21/08 03:11 AM
This morning's mortgage bonds are off about 20 bps.  Bonds are still sitting above a strong level of support at the 100 and 50 day moving averages so I recommend to FLOAT for now. 

This afternoon the much anticipated Fed Minutes are released at 2pm.  In these minutes we will discover how the members view the current and future of the economy and their gauge on inflation.  Expect confirmation about  stopping rate cuts going forward this year.  It should be interesting and might be a market mover.   I will repost if bonds move negatively on this release.
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mortgage bonds: PPI released, mixed numbers - Mortage Rate update for May 20th - 05/20/08 01:51 AM
PPI, producers price index, was released this morning and was tamer than expected at 0.2%.  The street was expecting 0.4%, however core PPI (ex food and energy) was hotter 0.4% than expected 0.2%.  Stock are reacting negatively to this news on the open and mortgage bonds so far are up 16 bps today.  The Bulls won the battle yesterday at the 50 and 100 moving average market, and that is now a level of support technically for the mortgage bond market.  Expect slightly better pricing today for the mortgage loan officers out there, the rates however should be the same as yesterday.  I recommend … (0 comments)

 
Bryan Flynn, Central Mass and Worcester Mortgages (Regency Mortgage Corporation)

Bryan Flynn

Central Mass and Worcester Mortgages

Worcester, MA

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Regency Mortgage Corporation

Address: 193 West Boylston Street, West Boylston, MA, 01583

Office: 774(261) 849-6774

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