gilbert: The Sky is NOT Falling, Chicken Little
- 08/22/13 08:54 AM
Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CHMS Do you ever get tired of hearing yourself say the same thing over and over? A few years ago, the question that seemed to continually arise was regarding “shadow inventory,” otherwise known as homes already foreclosed upon by the lender that they were holding onto and the fear was that the lenders would release a glut of “shadow inventory” simultaneously, further collapsing the market. The theory was ridiculous on many levels – first and foremost, why would the lenders participate and be the catalyst in further crippling themselves - and often, although we were able … (0 comments)
gilbert: Is the King abandoning the Kingdom?
- 08/07/13 03:20 AM
Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CHMS We are all familiar with the phrase “cash is king,” and in this case, the king may be abandoning the kingdom. It is not a secret that over the past five years, many of the homes purchased in the Phoenix market were bought by investors purchasing with cash. Prior to January of 2008, on average 12% of home purchases were purchased with cash. By February of 2011 (which was also when the median price hit its lowest level) 41.9% of purchases were cash. Keep in mind, in February of 2011, MANY properties in the metro … (0 comments)
gilbert: The Boomerang Market
- 07/26/13 04:35 AM
Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CHMS It’s hard to believe that I have been in this crazy business for over a decade. I recall in the early days of launching my new career, I would seek out those who had been in the business for over a decade and ask them to join me for lunch (somehow Realtors are very easily bribed with food). In exchange, I would get to spend an hour picking their brain. At least three of them said to me “be careful, the Phoenix real estate market can turn on a dime,” which I found at the … (1 comments)
gilbert: It's good news for sellers in the Phoenix market!
- 07/11/13 06:31 AM
Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CHMS The good news is that we are observing our typical seasonal pattern for local real estate sales. The second week of January, we see our market heat up like it’s been fired out of a cannon, and it remains hot until we reach late June, at which point we begin to see a gradual cooling. The fact that we are following the pattern this year is good news because things have been so far from typical recently, that we were wondering if we may never be able to predict the market, again. The bad news … (0 comments)
gilbert: Sometimes it's a GOOD thing to be in 44th place!
- 06/13/13 06:26 AM
Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CHMS Pending foreclosures in Maricopa County dropped to 8,147 this week. This is the lowest level of pending foreclosures we have observed since August 23, 2007, almost six years ago. It is also lower than we saw in the period January through April 2002 when the economy was being hit in the slowdown that followed the 9/11 attacks. The maximum pending foreclosure level ever recorded in Maricopa County was 51,022 in December 2009 and we have now fallen 84% from that peak. Michael Orr Director of the Real Estate Center at the W.P. Carey School … (0 comments)
gilbert: What distressed market?
- 06/06/13 10:00 AM
Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CHMS This week, I will allow the chart below to speak for itself. It outlines by city in the Phoenix Metro area what percentage of home sales are traditional equity sales (as opposed to foreclosures or short sales) versus May of 2011 and May of 2009. I think that this snap shot of the market speaks for itself, however if you would like to discuss it, or want an additional explanation, you are of course welcome to contact us anytime at www.PacellaGroup.com.
Current Conditions in the Phoenix Market: <!--[if !supportLists]-->· <!--[endif]-->There are 12,008 single … (0 comments)
Sometimes I feel like the Phoenix housing market is the “little engine that could.” The market is marching along toward recovery, inventory is continuing to decline, and foreclosure inventory is still declining significantly. For thirteen months in a row, we have seen a decline in notices of foreclosure. A notice of foreclosure is issued when a borrower has stopped making their payments, and the notice gives them 90 days to become current on payments before the lender forecloses. The all time high for notices in Maricopa County was in December … (0 comments)
gilbert: The Best Kept Secret in Town...
- 01/14/12 12:40 PM
Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CHMS, Keller Williams Arizona Realty My obsession with foreclosure inventory, or lack thereof, and its effect on pricing continues to consume me! There are currently 97 HUD owned homes actively being listed in MLS. That is a 91% decrease from 1,114 at this time last year! Notices of Trustee sale (foreclosure) are down 59% from the same time period in 2011. As we have established previously, 5.5 months of supply is considered to be a balanced market with supply above 5.5 indicating a buyer’s market, and supply below 5.5 indicating a seller’s market. Currently, we … (0 comments)
Phoenix is still in the bargain bin, but perhaps not for long! We are definitely kicking off 2012 with a bang!
We typically think of December as a slow month for closings, and January as a slow month for pending sales, but think again! In the Phoenix metro area market, December of 2011 had 8,107 closings, which is up over 16% from November 2011 closings. Additionally, we have nearly 10,000 properties pending sale, and almost 7,000 short sales that are under contract and awaiting lender approval. … (1 comments)
gilbert: The Phoenix Market has Come a Long Way Baby!
- 12/29/11 09:18 AM
Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CHMS ~ Keller Williams Arizona Realty www.PacellaGroup.com We’ve come a long way, baby! By now you know that I am a data geek/junkie. It shouldn’t surprise me to discover that the data geek in me saved a market snap shot dated August 17, 2007, the very week that the mortgage meltdown occurred. On that date, Phoenix had 56,205 active listings in MLS inventory, only 4,687 pending listings, and a 12.3 months supply of inventory. I certainly recall the frustration of making phone calls to inform sellers that their pending listings were falling out of escrow because … (0 comments)
gilbert: BOLD Predictions being Made Regarding the Phoenix Real Estate Market
- 12/11/11 07:37 AM
Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CHMS, CEO ~ Keller Williams Arizona Realty www.PacellaGroup.com The Cromford Report, which analyzes MLS data and trends in Maricopa County, is making some BOLD predictions, fueled by continued positive indicators in the market data. To begin, sales for the month of November were up 8% over the same time period last year; additionally, active listings are down 41%. The listing success rate (the number of homes that come on to the market and actually sell, rather than resulting in an expired listing) has increased 15% over last year. The big news continues to be in foreclosure … (0 comments)
gilbert: Foreclosures in the Phoenix Market Dropping Like a Boulder off a Cliff
- 12/02/11 05:43 AM
Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CHMS, CEO ~Keller Williams Arizona Realty Once again, we have more reasons for optimism in the Phoenix metro area market. As we have been observing over the past several weeks, active inventory (homes currently listed for sale) is down 50% from the same time period last year. Additionally, foreclosure inventory has declined dramatically, and the number of sales for 2011 are up 22% over 2009 and 2010. A 50% reduction in inventory, particularly foreclosure inventory, and a 22% increase in sales is certainly positive for our market. As you may have noticed, I am currently … (0 comments)
gilbert: Great News in the Phoenix Market!
- 11/18/11 05:32 AM
Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CHMS, CEO ~ Keller Williams Arizona Realty www.PacellaGroup.com Not only am I not holding my breath, or peeking between my fingers as though watching a horror film this week, I actually just gathered my team and did the “Snoopy Dance” in the hallway! We are really gaining momentum on improvement in the Phoenix Metro area real estate market! Over the past 30 days, the average price per square foot across the metro area has increased by 1.7%, which is a great step in the right direction! The current sales pending price per square foot is showing … (1 comments)
gilbert: Where Did the Foreclosures in the Phoenix Market Go?
- 11/12/11 11:58 AM
Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CHMS, CEO ~ Keller Williams Arizona Realty It never ceases to amaze me how quickly things within the Phoenix metro area real estate market can shift. Approximately 90 days ago, we began observing a shift in the inventory mix in the Phoenix metro area. We began seeing far fewer foreclosures coming into the inventory and an increase in short sales. Just 90 days later, the inventory shift has become fairly dramatic. For the past two years, the overall inventory mix has been roughly 1/3 foreclosure, 1/3 short sale, and 1/3 equity sales. Today, foreclosures are representing … (0 comments)
In reviewing the Cromford Report data, the trends that we have observed over the past several months are remaining. We are continuing to see a decline in foreclosure inventory by 5% over the past month, and a rise in short sale inventory by 2% to 27% of the total inventory, which is a record for this category.
There are several pieces of good news this week. Comparing data over the past 30 days, from September 15th, 2011 to October 15th, 2011:
The tides are turning, once again. In the past week, even those who I speak with that have been most pessimistic about our market have expressed optimism for the Phoenix market in the near future.
I have mentioned many times those dark, early mornings in December of 2007 and early 2008 when I would hold my breath, covering my eyes and peeking through my fingers, as though watching a horror film, while I reviewed the absorption rate in our market, hoping to see us inch over the 5% mark.
Even Paradise Valley’s absorption is more than double … (0 comments)
gilbert: Median Price Increasing in Phoenix Market!
- 10/07/11 06:06 AM
Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CHMS, CEO-Keller Williams Arizona Realty www.PacellaGroup.com It has finally happened! Pricing has finally begun a gradual increase! The median sales price is up 7.4% in the past seven weeks! It would be difficult to believe that the market could continue to defy the law of supply and demand, with inventory decreasing and pricing not increasing, for too much longer. Reviewing the Cromford Report data, which is full of good news today, across the entire metro area, sales for the month of September were up 17% over September of 2010. Perhaps even more staggering is that inventory … (0 comments)
gilbert: Inventory continues to drop in the Phoenix market.
- 09/30/11 03:01 PM
Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CHMS, CEO ~ Keller Williams Arizona Realty www.PacellaGroup.com It’s been over two months since we’ve taken a look at months of supply of inventory by city. I was curious about the inventory, partly because we have arrived at late September, when we typically experience a seasonal slowing in the market producing a swell in the inventory, and partly because pricing for short sales and equity sales is continuing on a slight decline (foreclosure pricing is increasing). Reviewing the data on the chart below, I was surprised to see how remarkably low inventory still is in most … (1 comments)
Over the past several months, I have repeatedly marveled at our market’s ability to defy the law of supply and demand. For nine months, inventory has been declining and currently sits at a level not significantly higher than the boom year of 2005, and yet prices are decreasing.
It’s understood that for as long as there remains a significant level of distress, our market will likely continue to be a renegade, defying those laws. We know that foreclosures have been rapidly slowing, but we … (0 comments)
gilbert: The Phoenix Market Continues to Defy the Law!
- 09/09/11 08:13 AM
Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CHMS, CEO – Keller Williams Arizona Realty www.PacellaGroup.com With the exception of the market over $2,000,000 the remainder of the market seems to be continuing move through inventory at a healthy pace. Sales per month, for the month of August, were up almost 27% over the same time period last year, and August of 2010 was not considered to be a slow sales month. Active inventory is down 47% from last year. Wow! Inventory is nearly half what it was last year, and notices of foreclosure are down 29% over the same time period last … (0 comments)
Courtesy of Barb Savoy-Pacella, ABR, CHMS
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