This Week; its all about employment with the ADP data hitting Wednesday and the BLS data on Friday. Last week stocks had a very strong week after being well oversold; the US bond and mortgage markets got hit hard. The Greece dance on the edge of default was temporarily side-stepped, QE 2 ended leaving markets to speculate on whether investors will be willing to pick up the slack, and the economic outlook improved a little. Interest rates increased on all of the above and will likely be extremely volatile again this week. Rate markets have likely seen … (0 comments)
market information: Market Insider
- 07/01/11 04:40 AM
Market Insider The bond and mortgage markets opened a little better this morning ahead of key data points at 10:00 when the June ISM manufacturing report is released and the U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index is revealed. Stock indexes in early trading about unchanged. Manufacturing growth is slowing from China to Europe; China’s factory index fell to the lowest level since February 2009, while in the 17-nation euro area, a gauge slipped to an 18-month low. German manufacturing expanded at the weakest pace in 17 months, while Italy, Ireland, Spain and Greece contracted. In the U.K. and India, output … (0 comments)
Market Insider The bond and mortgage markets opened better this morning after the strong selling the last two sessions taking rates up 20 basis points. The Greek debt issue is off the radar for the moment after its parliament voted to cut spending and qualify for assistance from the IMF and EU keeping Greece from defaulting, at least for now. Safety trades in US treasuries being closed and the very weak treasury auctions this week along with the end of QE 2 today---all combined to drive rates higher in a rapid move. Mix in that the ECB will likely … (1 comments)
market information: Market Insider
- 06/21/11 04:24 AM
Market Insider Treasuries and mortgages opened a little soft this morning with the pre-market trade in equities pointing to a better open at 9:30. Stocks look better, with European shares rebounding from a three-month low, and the euro strengthened as the Greek government prepared to face a confidence vote that may determine whether it avoids a default. Oil and palladium gained in Europe. Today’s vote of confidence in Prime Minister George Papandreou is likely to determine how soon the nation can win international aid to shore up its finances. European Union leaders have insisted he gain multi-party support for austerity … (0 comments)
market information: Market Insider
- 06/10/11 06:42 AM
Market Insider The bond and mortgage markets started a little better this morning after a bout of selling yesterday as the equity market bounced off very oversold technicals; the bond market equally extended, overbought as we note two days ago. This morning in early activity the stock indexes were weaker. Yesterday's minor price declines and the improvement in equity markets were not n any way fed by a change in the over-riding fundaments of an economy weakening, energy prices and commodity prices increasing.
This morning, in a week with hardly any economic data, May import prices were … (0 comments)
market information: Market Insider
- 06/07/11 05:16 AM
Market Insider Treasuries and mortgages opened weaker this morning,the stock market trade in pre-market opening also looking weak. If the stock market (DJIA) ends this week lower it will be the first time since 2002 the key index closes lower for 7 consecutive weeks. There are no economic reports today and through the week there isn't much data to look at. The week has treasury auctioning $66B of notes and bonds. OPEC will meet Wednesday with the Saudis pushing for more production, crude oil this morning trading lower on the OPEC outlook.
May non-farm jobs were up just 54K, non-farm private jobs +83K;the unemployment rate increased to 9.1% frm 9.0% in April. April and March non-farm jobs were revised down by an additional 39K. Manufacturing down 5K, government jobs -29K mostly at the state level. The U-6 jobless rate 15.8%; those underemployed and those that have stopped looking. Jobless duration 27 weeks or more 6.2 mil up frm 5.839 mil in April. Going into the report the estimates were +150K non-farm jobs, +175K private jobs, 8.9% unemployment rate; estimates were all over the place but those were the general … (0 comments)
Not a good start this morning in the bond and mortgage markets. This is employment week when most attention is directed to working the estimates all week; current thoughts are for jobs to increase 185K with non-farm private jobs +220K and unemployment unchanged at 9.0%. The forecasts likely to be moving all week; on tomorrow we get a look at what ADP estimates, presently it is expected to show an increase of 170K private jobs.
Market data was weaker than expect so bond and mortgage rates have improved from where they started.
Yesterday's strong rally in the bond and mortgage markets may have been a little too much too rapidly. This morning treasuries and mortgages are lower in price; at 9:00 the 10 yr note -8/32 at 3.09% +3 bp and mortgage prices -5/32 (.15 bp). The 10 yr note playing with its 200 day moving average at 3.08% closed yesterday at 3.06%; the 4.0 June 30 yr FNMA coupon broke its 200 day average nicely but as long as the 10 isn't holding neither will the mortgage market.
April pending home sales from NAR, contracts … (1 comments)
Prior to 8:30 this morning the bond and mortgage markets were slightly weaker; at 8:30 the bond market found some support when weekly jobless claims and Q1 GDP revision were released. Weekly jobless claims were expected to have declined 5K to 9K to 400K, claims increased 10K to 424K and last week's claims were revised slightly higher from 409K to 414K. Continuing claims however continued to decline, 3.69 mil frm 3.736 mil last week as more are losing their unemployment. Q1 GDP on the advance report last month was +1.8%, the preliminary report this morning was widely expected … (0 comments)
Rate markets started slightly weaker this morning, the bellwether 10 yr note still unable to crack 3.10% closing yesterday at 3.11% and at 8:45 this morning at 3.13%. Mortgage prices also a little weaker, -4/32 (.12 bp) at 8:45. Asian stock markets were lower on soft earnings, Europe's stock markets trading weaker and US stock indexes looking soft into the 9:30 open. Crude lower to start the day while gold a little higher.
At 8:30 April durable goods orders were a lot weaker than thought; orders expected down 2.0% fell 3.6% after increasing 4.4% in March, … (0 comments)
Some weakness early this morning; the bond and mortgage markets trading slightly worse after another attempt to break 3.10% on the 10 yr note yesterday. Yesterday the 10 yr made another attempt to push below its resistance, just couldn't make it although it did decline 2 basis points with mortgage rates unchanged on the session. Yesterday the bond market had support from continued uncertainty about Europe's debt problems in the "infamous five" countries facing potential defaults. The weaker stock market yesterday also kept safety moves into treasuries alive.
The bond and mortgage markets continue to carry bullish … (2 comments)
Treasuries have been bought from the get go in Asia as continued problems in the euro zone peripheries have sparked a flight to safety bid. On Saturday, S&P downgraded Italy's credit outlook to negative. Spanish citizens went to the polls over the weekend and dealt a devastating blow to Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez's Socialist party as it witnessed its worst defeat in more than 30 years amid its plan for austerity. Manufacturing readings from China and the euro zone showed manufacturing slowed from previous readings. All of these developments have been grounds … (1 comments)
market information: Market Insider
- 05/22/11 01:51 PM
Market Insider This week's Treasury auctions and increasing re-curing concerns about Greece's debt along with the performance in US equities should set up a more volatile week. Another attempt that fails to push the 10 yr note lower in rate this week will do serious damage to the outlook that rates may trend lower. Economic data won't be much help this week with weekly claims, durable goods orders for April and April personal income and spending about all there is. The constantly developing debt problems in Europe, its impact on the dollar/euro, and what appears to be a weakening equity market; … (1 comments)
Yesterday's shocking surprise on the May Philly Fed business index turned what was likely to be a run to slightly higher rates around on a dime. The index was expected to increase from 18.5 in April to 20 in May' as released the index plunged to 3.9 and the new orders component fell substantially, from 18.8 to 5.4. Until that hit at 10:00 the bond and mortgage markets were not looking good; the 10 yr note yield had spiked from 3.11% on Tuesday to 3.25% at 9:59 yesterday and mortgage prices had declined 24/32 … (0 comments)
Yesterday and first thing this morning treasuries were being hit hard and it looked like mortgage interest rates were going to start climbing up and then this: April existing home sales, expected up 2.0%, fell 0.8% to 5.05 mil units frm 5.09 mil last month; the average sales price $163,700 down 5.0% frm April 2010. The shocker at 10:00, the May Philly Fed business index; it was widely expected at 20.0 frm 18.8 in April, as reported it fell to 3.9 a huge decline the lowest since Oct 2009. The new orders component at 5.4 frm 18.8 … (1 comments)
Treasuries and mortgages tried early to hold slight price gains but by 9:00 the 10 yr was a little lower in price and mortgages -3/32 (.09 bp) frm yesterday's close. Stock indexes early were a little better with crude oil and gold higher. Crude being pushed higher this morning on a huge fire in Canada's oil fields where most have been evacuated. No economic releases today except the weekly MBA mortgage applications at 7:00 this morning.
One propellant for the recent decline in rates is built on the view that the softer economic outlook will … (0 comments)
At 8:30 April housing starts were worse than expected, down 10.6% to 523K units annualized with forecasts up 2.8%; March starts were revised higher, up 12.9%. April single family starts -5.1%. April building permits expected down 0.7% fell 4.0%. We don't have a lot to add to the report in that it continues to slide, as long as housing does not show any recovery there is little anyone should expect in the way of economic improvement. We are amazed, and even somewhat shocked that there is very little outward attention to the crisis in Washington; possibly because there … (2 comments)
Interest rate markets started a little soft but generally hanging around unchanged with the stock market looking like a softer open at 9:30. At 9:00 the DJIA traded -36 after declining 100.25 on Friday. At 8:30 the May NY Empire State manufacturing index, it was expected at 18.0 frm 21.7, as reported it fell to 11.88. The prices pd component increased to 69.89 frm 57.69, some concern on the increase as markets continue to watch anything that might suggest inflation is increasing. The new orders component was 17.19 frm 22.34, the employment index did increase, to 24.73 frm 23.08. … (0 comments)
This Week; there are no Treasury auctions this week, back to economic reports that will set the pace. Last week the bond and mortgage markets were generally unchanged with the 10 yr treasury note testing and failing to break the low yield set in early March at 3.14%. Although interest rates are seemingly stuck at the present levels, the outlook remains positive for interest rates staying low as long as the equity markets, the dollar and commodity prices trade soft.
Data this week include Apr housing starts and permits (starts better, permits a little weaker), … (0 comments)
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