san diego va loans: San Diego Mortgage News - August 16, 2013 - 08/16/13 08:46 AM
What happened yesterday?  
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) lost -49 basis points from Wednesday's close which caused 30 year fixed rates to move upward.  MBS have now lost a big -135BPS from Monday's open to yesterday's close.
Once again, we started the day selling off before our first dose of economic data even hit due to the German Bund (there version of our U.S. Treasury 10 Year note) saw their yields shoot up on continued optimism for growth in Germany and in Europe.  This zapped money out of U.S. bonds which caused MBS pricing to rise.
Then, Initial Jobless Claims were much better than … (0 comments)

san diego va loans: San Diego Mortgage News - July 17, 2013 - 07/17/13 03:04 AM
Bernanke’s prepared text was out at 8:30 this morning (way early) before his 10:00appointment at the House Financial Services Committee. He is saying that the central bank’s asset purchases “are by no means on a preset course” and could be reduced more quickly or expanded as economic conditions warrant. “If the outlook for employment were to become relatively less favorable, if inflation did not appear to be moving back toward 2 percent, or if financial conditions -- which have tightened recently -- were judged to be insufficiently accommodative to allow us to attain our mandated objectives, the current pace of purchases could be maintained for … (0 comments)

san diego va loans: This Week in Mortgage - Monday July 15, 2013 - 07/15/13 10:23 AM
This Week; there are a number of key economic releases but the major focus this week is Bernanke testifying in the House and Senate on the economy, employment and inflation. Likely he will field a lot of questions from politicians about what the Fed intends to do with its QEs and more grilling on the state of the economy and unemployment that refuses to subside. He goes before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday and then to the Senate’s Banking Committee on Thursday.    At this moment markets continue to lean towards the Fed beginning to taper as soon as Sept but Bernanke is keeping markets … (0 comments)

san diego va loans: San Diego Mortgage News - June 25, 2013 - 06/25/13 01:37 AM
A nice price reversal yesterday, after being down 107 bps at 9:30 the 3.5 July FNMA ended down just 14 bps; the 10 yr note unchanged at the end of the day at 2.54%. This morning prior to 8:30 the 10 yr yield had fallen to 2.49% (5:00 am); 8:30 brought May durable goods orders better than forecasts. Orders were expected up 3.3% as reported up 3.5%, ex transportation orders were expected down 0.1% but increased 0.7%. Treasures and MBSs lost most of the early gains.
 
At 9:00 April Case/Shiller 20 city home price index was expected up 10.9% … (0 comments)

san diego va loans: San Diego Mortgage News - June 5, 2013 - 06/05/13 04:09 AM
Prior to 8:15 the 10 yr was +8/32 at 2.12% -3 bps; US stock indexes were slightly weaker. At 8:15ADP reported private job growth in May increased by 135K, the consensus estimate was +170K; April private jobs were revised lower, to 113K frm 119K. It was all in the service sector increasing 135K, construction gained 5K jobs, financial services +7K, manufacturing lost 6K. Small businesses added 57K jobs. The initial reaction improved the bond market, the 10 yr at 8:30 +13/32 at 2.11% -4 bps, 30 yr 3.5 FNMA MBSs struggling at 8:30 up 14 bp---not much as the MBS market remains more bearish than treasuries. At 8:30 Q1 productivity was … (0 comments)

san diego va loans: San Diego Mortgage News - May 28, 2013 - 05/28/13 02:18 PM
FOUR is not a 4 letter word
With rates inching up by the day, it's easy to forget that we have spent years and years with rates well above 4%. Here's a graph from FRED, the Federal Reserve Economic Data, showing where rates have been over the last 30 years. The point is that now is not the time to panic, it's just the time to get busy. Don't get caught up chasing yesterday's rates, they are not likely to return. Instead, focus on what they can afford NOW, and don't let more time slip away.




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san diego va loans: San Diego Mortgage News - April 25, 2013 - 04/25/13 04:33 AM
Weekly jobless claims at 8:30 were better than forecasts; down 16K to 339K. Claims last week were the lowest since early March, so-called consensus estimates were at 350K. The 4 week average on claims was down 4500 to 357,500. As we said yesterday claims now are free from seasonal machinations. A Labor Department spokesman said there was nothing unusual that affected today’s figures, he said big swings in claims are common this month because of layoffs related to school vacations and holidays such as Easter that don’t always occur during the same week each year. He also said the period of … (0 comments)

san diego va loans: San Diego Mortgage News - April 16, 2013 - 04/16/13 02:07 AM
Yesterday the stock indexes fell; the DJIA -266 and NASDAQ -78. Some of the selling was a reaction to the Boston bombing, however that didn’t happen until 3:00. Prior to the shock the stock market was under strong selling pressure, frm the time the bombs exploded the DJIA was down over 170 points. The 10 yr note fell to 1.69%, down 4 bp and 30 yr MBSs +16 bps. This morning at 8:30 the US stock indexes trading in the futures markets were suggesting the DJIA would open up 120 points higher.
 
No follow-through this morning; looking for the correction … (0 comments)

san diego va loans: San Diego Mortgage News - April 10, 2013 - 04/10/13 02:07 AM
The Federal Reserve made a huge error yesterday; it sent out the FOMC minutes yesterday afternoon to members of Congress; a day ahead of when the minutes were supposed to be released. The minutes were expected at 2:00 this afternoon, after the mistake yesterday the minutes were released this morning at 9:00 am. The announcement of the misstep release yesterday wasn’t known until 8:55 am this morning.
 
·        Committee members saw the information received over the intermeeting period as suggesting that moderate economic growth had resumed following a pause late last year.
·        Labor market conditions had shown signs … (0 comments)

san diego va loans: San Diego Mortgage News - April 5, 2013 - 04/05/13 05:35 AM
The first Friday of every month is almost always one of shock and awe; the release of the monthly employment data is rarely a calm event. Today the March data didn’t disappoint in terms of surprise. The unemployment rate hit at 7.6% down frm 7.7% in Feb, so far on the surface that looks good, but not really. Non-farm job growth was expected at about 190K, job growth as reported increased just 88K; non-farm private job growth was thought to be about 200K, as reported up just 95K. There was revisions to Feb and Jan jobs that totaled an additional 61K … (4 comments)

san diego va loans: San Diego Mortgage News - Friday March 22, 2013 - 03/22/13 05:08 AM
A little better start in the mortgage and bond market this morning even with the stock indexes opening better. It remains all about the Cyprus banks and whether Cyprus can come up with 5.8B euros in order to get bank rescue money from the ECB. Yesterday the gauntlet was laid down to Cyprus by the ECB and EU officials; raise the money by Monday or the rescue is off. Tough talk as there has been in the past, but in recent past crisis’s in Spain, Italy and Portugal the deadlines were achieved in various forms to avoid any systematic EU meltdown. Will … (0 comments)

san diego va loans: Mortgage News - Thursday December 11, 2012 - 12/11/12 01:04 AM
The tight trading range in the bond and mortgage markets continues today, however this morning the 10 yr note yield increased to 1.64% +2 bp frm yesterday and MBS prices weaker after increasing yesterday. Since early November the interest rate markets have essentially been flat with no significant changes. There has been literally no change in mortgage rates for six weeks. Both stock investors and bond traders are willing to sit quietly until there is something out of Washington on the Cliff negotiations. No progress is being made; the president refuses to discuss spending cuts until the Republicans agree to increasing … (1 comments)

san diego va loans: Derek McClintock Mortgage News - Friday November 23, 2012 - 11/23/12 02:08 AM
US stock indexes started better this morning following rallies in most European markets. Germany’s business confidence index unexpectedly increased moving stocks higher in Europe; in the US at 9:30 the DJIA opened +37, NASDAQ +17 and S&P +5. The 10 yr note rate up 1 bp to 1.69% with 30 yr MBSs -6 bp at 9:30. The Ifo Institute reported German confidence index increased to 101.4 frm 100 in Oct; the French business confidence index also increased.
 
There are no economic reports today; Black Friday is usually not much in the markets with early closings at 1:00 PM. Most … (0 comments)

san diego va loans: Mortgage News - Tuesday November 20, 2012 - 11/20/12 03:19 AM
Treasuries and MBSs started lower this morning (price) with pre-market futures trading pointing to a soft open in the stock market. At 9:00 the 10 yr at 1.63% +2 bp and MBS price +2 bp frm yesterday’s close. At 8:30 Oct housing starts and permits were released; starts were expected to have declined but as reported up 3.6% while permits were in line at -2.7%. Starts are at a four year high but well off the norms that were seen prior to the housing market collapse, in the early 2000s starts were at about 1.2 mil annualized units, Oct starts were … (1 comments)

 


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