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Market Update With Stunning Employment Figures!
Stunned!! The only way to describe what we saw at 8:30 when the BLS employment report was released, mouths dropped, words were hard to come by with one of the weakest monthly employment reports in over a year. Non-farm jobs, expected up 100K were up just 18K; private sector jobs expected up 125K, up just 57K. It wasn't just June data; May non-farm jobs were revised frm +54K to +29K and April jobs lower by 4K frm what what was originally released. The jobs were the weakest since Sept 2010. The unemployment rate, expected unchanged at 9.1%, increased to 9.2%, the highest since Dec 2010. Average hourly earnings -0.1%, normally up 0.2% a month. No matter how the report is spun when Pres Obama speaks at 10:35; this is a very serious blow to the view that the economy is improving and has turned markets upside down.
Prior to the release of employment the 10 yr note yield was up to 3.18% +4 bp frm yesterday's close; mortgage prices -7/32 (.22 bp) frm yesterday's close. At 9:00 the 10 yr note rate was down to 3.03% -11 bp frm yesterday's close and mortgage prices +18/32 (.56 bp). Stock indexes were better prior to 8:30, at 9:00 the ... more
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