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This week is stumbling to an end
This week is stumbling to an end, markets largely unchanged and I think exhausted at the sight of non-functioning government here and over there.
10-year T-notes did rise from all-time-bottom 1.90% to 2.10%, but either value is an emergency trade, and the rise did little to mortgages, still 4.125-4.25% and which three weeks ago stopped following the 10-year down.
The economy is conjugating the verb, "to stall." Stalling, stalled, will stall... the NFIB small biz index fell for the sixth-straight month, now back to recession levels. Industrial production rose a mighty 0.2% in August, and regional surveys found a slower rate of slowing. August retail sales were flat, precisely zero change. In modest good news, layoffs have stalled, too, no real change in newly unemployed.
The Fed next Wednesday will announce some new effort to help the economy -- the stronger the measure, perversely the more likely to push up mortgage rates in optimism. However, the Fed's internal politics are a mess, and not helped by a .4% CPI reading in August; inflation isn't going anywhere, but it's impossible to argue the point with the Fed's minority rockheads.
We depart Europe, boiling in its own reduction sauce, lectured today by Li'l ... more

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