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The Great American Puppet Show, ACT II
Do They or Don't They?
We open this Act with the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points and wondering what it is they know that we do not.  Do they have access to economic data before it is released? Is Ben acting on popular opinion in the markets? Is the economy in bad shape?  Unfortunately, I think that this will be one of those plays that will have an ending that we will have to wait for the sequel!!
Lets start with Wednesday when the fed cut rates.  In the morning the ADP estimates for employment came out showing an expectation of 130K new jobs created in January. That would be a block buster number and about 50K more than what economists had been predicting. The problem is that the ADP report is wrong about as much as your local weather man! The funny thing is that the talking heads in the financial media have been defending the report stating that after revisions come out the ADP report is usually more accurate than the government report. They even went as far as saying the Fed may pay more attention to this report. So........... with a block buster number in the ... more

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