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The Khamis Team Weekly Mortgage Newsletter
Mortgage rates stepped higher last week, touching a high point not seen since 2013. The continued upward pressure on rates stems from expectations of sustained economic growth coupled with rising inflationary pressures. While the first estimate of GDP for 2018’s Q1 was lower than the final quarter of 2017, it was higher than analysts’ expectations. For a number of years, GDP has been low in the first quarter and bounced higher in the second. If this holds true for 2018, we are very likely to see mortgage rates continuing to move upward, adding pressure on the Fed to increase rates.
This week is absolutely packed with critical economic data. Both ISM Indices, PCE Prices, and the monthly employment report are due, along with the next meeting of the Federal Reserve. While the Fed is unlikely to increase rates, any shift in policy or comments that appear more hawkish will likely send rates upward. While another poor showing in the employment data is not expected, a second, weak month in new jobs could help temper any upward pressure from other strong data points.
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