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TRADE TALKS HANGING OVER RATE MARKETS
THIS WEEK'S MORTGAGE RATE SUMMARY
 
HOW RATES MOVE:
Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.
 
RATES CURRENTLY TRENDING: NEUTRAL
Mortgage rates are trending sideways this morning. Last week the MBS market worsened by -37bps. This was enough to move rates higher last week. There was moderate rate volatility last week.
 
THIS WEEK'S RATE FORECAST: NEUTRAL
Three Things: Tariffs/Trade war is the only thing that has the ability to move rates. We do have one Central Bank meeting (Bank of Japan), but the markets are not expecting anything out of them. The housing data, while important won't play a role in rates.
Trade Wars: After discussions, this weekend with Chinese trade representatives didn't produce any notable results, President Trump has said he'll move forward with an announcement (perhaps as soon as Monday) with $200B in newly enforced tariffs. Please note that these tariffs have been ... more

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