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Weekly Newsletter week of May 20
Mortgage Rate Forecast with Chart - FNMA 30-Year 4.0% Coupon Bond
The FNMA 30-year 4.0% coupon bond ($102.781, +12.5bp) traded within a slightly wider 20.3 basis point range between a weekly intraday low of $102.719 on Monday and a weekly intraday high of 102.922 on Wednesday before closing the week at $102.781 on Friday.  Mortgage bonds traded higher Monday through Wednesday on a bounce higher from technical support before giving back some gains on Thursday and Friday.  There is a strong triple layer of technical support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level ($102.618), the 25-day moving average ($102.601), and the 50-day moving average ($102.582).  Technical resistance is found at $102.922, the intraday high of May 15 and $103.109, the intraday high of March 27.  The bond remains “overbought” at a higher level and is trading on a stronger sell signal.  The chart suggests a move lower toward support levels and this may result in slightly higher mortgage rates this coming week.
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