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Is The California Unemployment Rate Rising Again?
by Ben Wright
June 2019
After 8 years of persistent improvement, the California unemployment rate began to drift upward in January 2019. A rising unemployment rate typically indicates that business conditions are deteriorating and companies are slashing jobs, and once the unemployment rate begins to rise, the economy often falls into recession within a year.
So is the California labor market indicating that a recession is imminent? Will mass layoffs begin sometime in 2019 or 2020? Not necessarily. The unemployment rate is now increasing because there are abundant opportunities to find a job, wages are rising, and people who had given up on finding a job are now returning to the workforce.
Recruiting Remains Extraordinarily Difficult Even though the unemployment rate is rising, the job market is still excessively tight, and hiring managers are having problems finding qualified workers. Throughout California there are only 1.3 unemployed residents for every job opening, and in some regions there are more openings than people available to fill them.
The most extreme example is the Bay Area where there are 210,000 job openings but only 104,000 unemployed residents. Even if every applicant in the Bay Area was perfectly qualified for an open position, half of all ... more

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