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Are We Talking Ourselves Into Recession?
Are We Talking Ourselves Into Recession?
 
     Recently, the "R" word has been in the headlines quite a bit.  As with every headline, there's a "devil's advocate" position, and recently, one expert warned that if we keep talking about recession, that could CAUSE a recession!  
 
     Yes, fear is a dangerous thing.  Fear in the markets can be a catastrophic thing.  Self-fulfilling prophecy can be very real, too.  But in this case, and the case for recession, those thinking our thoughts are driving the economy are missing the key data that showed us that recession was on it's way more than a year ago.
 
     Look, our markets have been in bull mode for far too long.  It's been a good run, but like every great party, eventually the carriage turns into a pumpkin and it's time to go home.
 
In this case, here is your damn near infallible evidence that recession is coming:
 
The inverted yield curve

With yield curves inverting, the financial markets begin to make no sense.  Risky adjustable rate market products become more expensive than lower fixed rates.  This yield curve inversion happens nearly every time an economy enters recession.
 
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