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The Fed Will Probably Cut Rates Today
By Matthew C. Klein – Barron’s
Photo: Washington Examiner
Market prices currently imply a 90% chance the Federal Reserve will reduce short-term interest rates by a quarter-point to a range of 1.75%-2.0% when policy makers meet this week. Such a move would be consistent with the Fed’s “midcycle adjustment” that began in July.
The interesting question, therefore, is not what the Fed will do to rates when its two-day policy meeting concludes Wednesday, but what it will indicate it wants to do over the next few years. Current pricing implies a 60% chance that the Fed’s rate band will be lowered again before the end of 2019, and an almost 50% chance of further reductions by next spring.
  In other words, what matters is not the decision itself, but the Fed’s forecasts for the future and the answers Chairman Jerome Powell provides in his post meeting press conference.
The recent switch from rate increases to rate cuts should also be understood in the context of the Fed’s about-face that began at the beginning of the year. The rate increases in 2018 were motivated by unfounded optimism about the U.S. economy’s “underlying strength.” Officials were misled by jobs data that have since been revised, as well as by one-off jumps in capital ... more

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