economy: Housing Market Will Have Excess Capacity for Five Years - 04/15/10 11:05 PM
On a continued gloomy note, business intelligence company, SNL Interactive interviewed homebuilding space analyst for Stifel Nicolaus & Co., Michael Widner, who predicted that the housing market will have excess capacity for at least the next five years.
If the number of housing starts continues at the current levels then capacity may shrink substantially within three years, but with the predicted ramping up of new housing starts by a number of the major builders, that excess capacity is likely to run for at least five years.
Widner does expect some of the major builders to return to profitability in 2010 and … (2 comments)

economy: Barclay’s Take on the Housing Market????? - 04/12/10 10:53 PM
While I'm not sure what they had for lunch, but housing "experts" at Barclay’s Capital are convinced that the worst of the housing market decline is over. A look at the 4th quarter earnings documentation from 20 national and regional banks provided the data that led to Barclay’s conclusion.
The banks all seem to agree that the housing market has stabilized in all but a few parts of the country. The weakest areas where further declines may be seen are Arizona, Nevada and parts of Florida.
Housing still constitutes an area where troubled asset portfolios still trouble many banks, but the … (0 comments)

economy: Why Some Housing Markets Dodged a Bullet - 04/12/10 11:04 AM
Ever wondered why some housing markets virtually disintegrated when the housing bubble burst, while others have survived quite well? This was the subject of a research report put out recently by the New York Federal Reserve Bank written by two of the Bank’s economists and researchers, Jaison R. Abel Richard Deitz. Deitz and Abel answer the question by focusing particularly on the upstate New York housing market.
During the housing boom of 2000 to 2006 home prices in upstate New York cities of Utica, Syracuse, Rochester and Buffalo did not appreciate rapidly like so much of the rest of the nation. … (0 comments)

economy: There are Buyers for Luxury Homes - 04/06/10 10:52 PM
While for most Investors the homes that are most readily purchased as rentals and first homes are the most plentiful and the easiest to sell quickly, there is a resurgence in the luxury home market that may present an opportunity for Investors in certain markets.
The National Association of Realtors reports that the sale of homes valued at $1 million and higher increased 38% in February over the same period the year before. The reasons are low mortgage rates, loosened credit markets and more cash buyers ready to bet that these homes will increase in value in the future.
A 30 … (1 comments)

economy: And, the status of the economy is? - 03/21/10 09:46 PM
Some States Hit Record High Unemployment
The Labor Department has released January unemployment figures and has revealed record jobless rates in five states including South Carolina (12.6%), California (12.5%), Florida (11.9%), North Carolina (11.1%), and Georgia (10.4%).
Nine states saw a decrease in unemployment. Eleven states saw no change, and the other thirty experienced an increase in the jobless rate in January. The states with the highest rates overall are Michigan, Nevada, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and California.
The states with the lowest unemployment rates are North and South Dakota, and Nebraska. States with strong overseas exports seem to be seeing … (2 comments)

economy: Homeowners More Pessimistic About Home Value - 02/27/10 09:31 PM
Zillow has completed a survey which shows for the first time that Homeowners are no longer confident that their homes are going up in value. Only 20% believed their home had gone up in value, where, in fact Zillow shows about 28% of homes appreciated in the past year. For the first time since Zillow started surveying homeowner confidence, the level as a -2 showing that homeowners are actually more cynical than reality about the value of their homes.
Half of the surveyed home owners believed their homes had fallen in value, while 30% believed their home had stayed the same … (6 comments)

economy: First American CoreLogic HPI Says Price Decline is Slowing - 02/26/10 11:32 PM
 
First American CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) tracks home prices in all U.S. markets and basically concurs with Moody’s report that home prices are continuing to fall when considered nationally. The one silver lining the HPI reveals is that the decline is smaller and slower than before.
The December decline year over year was 3.7% compared to the 5.3% year over year decline the previous December. Even when distress sales are removed both years registered a decline in home values year over year—3% in December 2009 and 5% in December 2008.
The HPI is expected to drop another 4.4% through … (1 comments)

economy: Moody’s Expects Continuing Home Price Decline - 02/25/10 09:41 PM
Moody’s Investors Service predicts another 8% decline in the housing market in many areas over the coming months. They blame the anemic Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) for failing to put a damper on foreclosure and the continuing escalation of foreclosure sales throughout the country for the continuing slide in home prices.
The national home price drop from peak to trough is expected to be 34%. The one bit of good news is Moody’s revised downward the expected total value decline. Previously Moody’s had predicted a 37% total decline. The bad news is, instead of the trough being reached in the … (4 comments)

economy: Tentative Recovery is Spreading Across the Country, maybe.... - 02/24/10 10:07 PM
 
I know that many of you disagree with this, but according to Moody’s economists, the regional economic outlook shows that the economic recovery is gradually making its way across the country. It started in the central core of the country, and spread west first. Now it is beginning to impact the southeast and northeast positively.
The map at the Economy.com website shows a swatch of states “in recovery” down the middle of the country and in the upper northwest. These states include Idaho, Montana, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, … (3 comments)

economy: Bernanke Will Assure Feds That Interest Rates Will Not Rise - 02/23/10 10:08 PM
 
Amid concerns that interest rates may rise sharply this year, Bernanke is now expected to tell Congress today in his semi-annual report on the economy that interest rates will not be going up soon. The Federal Reserve chief is mindful that unemployment remains high and the housing industry is still weak. The New York Federal Reserve President, William Dudley, indicated on Friday that helping to improve the economy’s growth rate is more on the minds of the Federal Reserve Board than the need to fight inflation. Right now there is no real threat of inflation, according to Dudley.
There has … (2 comments)

economy: Don't Count the Dollar Out - 02/09/10 09:23 PM
According to Ben Levisohn in a Bloomberg.com article,stories of the dollar's demise are more myth than reality. In fact, the dollar is gaining against a group of 10 nations who are its trading partners. The dollar has gained 6% since November after a 12% loss during the first 11 months of 2009. Both Barclay's Capital and Morgan Stanley are bullish on the U.S. chances for growth during 2011 compared to other developed countries, especially compared to Greece, Spain, Portugal and Japan.
There is great demand right now, including from foreign sources, for U.S. Treasury notes. Many are seeking refuge against a … (2 comments)

economy: Payroll down. Housing prices down. Next? - 09/07/07 05:20 AM
 

Written today by Scott Anderson, Senior Economist for Wells Fargo:
 
This morning’s terrible payroll report gives the Fed the cover it needs to begin easing monetary policy in a serious way, using the biggest guns in its arsenal.  Any lingering fears on inflation are now firmly in the rearview mirror and the Fed’s objective to maintain economic growth is paramount.  The bad news is the Fed now appears somewhat behind the curve as often happens in times of economic transition.  There is now a real danger of recession, and some analysts will worry that one is now unavoidable, or … (0 comments)

economy: Spring Market: Boom or Bust? - 09/15/06 10:46 PM
 
Some industry journals have already started talking about the Spring 2007 market with predictions that range from a continued slow-down and lower prices to more bullish predictions with a retrun to houses selling hot off the griddle. 
I agree the market is going to continue to improve, but I don't see a return to bidding wars.. I think there is pent-up buyer demand that is going re-surface next spring. Interest rated are still under 6.5%, inflation is low, the Northern VA economy is strong, less than 2% unemployment and rents have been going up steadily. Unless we bomb Iran or North Korea … (0 comments)