“Oh what difference weather and interest rate makes, within the market place”
I think I will start Februarys market update with the quote from an ad on television I remember as I was growing up from alka sizzler,” plop, plop, fizz, fizz Oh what a relief it is”. I think that best describes the activity since weather warmed and interest rates dropped in 2015 Market. At the end of February 2015, closed sales down -7%, pending sales up 23 %, inventory down -7%, and interest rates down-15% from the year … (1 comments)
billings mt: Looking at the effects of the Frank-Dodd Bill on home sales
- 09/21/14 03:40 AM
Looking at the effects of the Frank-Dodd Bill creating the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau If you use Yellowstone county as an example of the effects of the reforms from “housing collapse” and the wild financing used in the white hot markets from around the country, Las Vegas, Phoenix, California, Miami and such. You can clearly see the unintended consequences of the reforms put in place and why the analogy of the pendulum swinging to far applies. The Market peak in activity in closed residential sales as measured in the Multiple Listing Service in Yellowstone County was the year 2006. Using … (0 comments)
billings mt: Market Update at a Glance August 2014
- 09/16/14 12:36 AM
August 31st 30th 2014 “End of the Summer” First let’s look at closed transactions, August 2014 continued with fewer homes closed. Number of closed sales in Yellowstone County are 1424 August 2014 as compared to 1516 in August 2013, a 6% decline. Monthly year over year same story monthly year over year August 2013 199, August 2104 187. Residential pending unit sales are down -3% years over year. To compare; 2013 August pending unit sales were up 6% over August 2012. (2012 there were 350 pending sales; 2013 there were 372 pending sales, 2014 there are 359 pending sales). … (0 comments)
billings mt: The market and price point performance
- 08/23/14 05:36 AM
The market and price point performance $200,000 and Above When you segment the market by price range you can more clearly see underlying trends that show up in the “average” performance numbers. Additionally, depending on the price point, there are definitely amenities that are required as you move up in the market. You can tell amenity requirements by the price per square foot pricing. I would caution, not to take the simplistic approach, of multiplying a home size by the price per square foot, since location, age and condition can affect the variability of that number: as an example the 500k … (1 comments)
billings mt: Market Update at a Glance July 2014
- 08/20/14 02:51 AM
JULY 31ST 2014 “SECOND HALF IS WHERE THE GAME IS WON?” Two Months of summer gone, second half of the year beginning, so which way will be the direction of the market. First let’s look at closed transactions, July 2014 essentially matched last year in homes closed, 188 closed in 2013, 187 reported so far in July 2014. Number of closed sales in Yellowstone County are 1194 through July as compared to 1268 in 2013, a 6% decline, so the market is creeping on matching 2013, one factor that stumped us all, is interest rate, the 10 year treasury, is actually … (1 comments)
billings mt: Nationally New construction, existing home sales and mobile homes
- 06/24/14 01:58 AM
Just to cover all the bases, I have expanded this report to include existing home sales and mobile home placements. Globally it now covers the entire housing segment. Permits include both mutli family and single family permits. So let’s look at the playing field to see how we are doing 9 ½ years on since the last peak. As a an additional side note the mortgage brokers association reported in May, year over year new purchase application index down 15% and the refinance index is down 73% year over year.
Hmmmmmmmmmm I wonder if that means anything
… (0 comments)
billings mt: Market Update at Glance december 2013 End of the Year
- 01/11/14 03:45 AM
December 31st 2013 “End of the Year, Dichotomies” Wow another year and it went by at light speed. 2013 was a two part year, the first half a rocket ship headed for the best year Yellowstone County has ever seen, the second half, while good, had changed dynamics and we ended still 10.62% fewer homes sold than 2006 the peak year for number of sales in Yellowstone County. First I will look at the changes from year end 2012 to year end 2013, and second, I will and look at second half of 2013. In single family permits we see … (0 comments)
billings mt: have housing costs gone up?
- 12/19/13 03:38 AM
When thinking about the question of housing cost, the question of which is the most important to the consumer, is it the purchase price or is it the monthly payment. While I would not claim that it is absolutely one way or another, generally speaking, my experience is, that monthly cost tends to be the deciding factor in decision making process and yes the purchase price does drive the monthly cost along with interest rate , taxes and insurance. I thought it would be of interest to look at the market in terms of price range and the most probable monthly … (0 comments)
I am going to do two things month, which will make this a long report overall. First I will look at the changes form November 2012 to November 2013, then second I will go back and look at 2006 (the peak year in residential sales) and compare to 2013 to see how we have done. In single family permits we see the fourth year over year monthly decrease (permits down 13% from November 2012, total single family permits still have a gain of 17% for the year, as a comparison in march 2013 permits were up 66% year … (2 comments)
WHEN LOOKING HOW WELL OR POOR WE ARE DOING THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENT WAYS TO LOOK AT THE SEGMENT.
#1 COMPARING NUMBER OF SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS ISSUES
#2 COMPARING SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS PLUS DUPLEX PERMITS MULTIPLIED BY 2 FOR LIVING UNITS
#3 COMPARING TOTAL DOLLAR VALUE OF PERMITS ISSUED
#4 COMPARING POPULATION TO TOTAL OF PERMITS ISSUED
#5 COMPARING EMPLOYMENT TOTAL OF PERMITS ISSUED
MY … (0 comments)
billings mt: County employment Montana
- 11/24/13 01:42 AM
Since our friends in Washington D.C. decided to shut down for a while. Employment numbers have not been published for a couple months for Montana. Always good to see what is happening with employment since more people working means, in all likely hood, more homes will be sold. Although not a direct correlation employment is a good predictor, since it is impossible now to qualify for a loan without income.
One theme that I always carry with me about the real estate market or the economy in general is the qualifier to any analysis I do is “ unless our friends in Washington D.C. do something stupid all bets are off” we have now been through a period where I believe the comment applies in spades. So why are the actions or more appropriately inactions of our friends a concern here in paradise where we live? First when people get nervous or are unsure what is occurring they hesitate or hold back. In … (0 comments)
billings mt: Have new financing rules affected the market
- 10/19/13 03:55 AM
You would assume if the price of something dropped that was desirable to purchase that sales of that product would increase. Then why in the housing market would number and percentage of the market drop in the lower price ranges if it cost about 18.5% less to buy today than it did in 2007?
Three Quarters of the year over, the residential market in Billings entering the last Quarter of the year, what behavior might we expect from the market place. Typically the market slows in the last quarter inventory normally shrinks and sales slow as we head into the holidays, usually the real noticeable shift comes in the second week of November just before thanks giving. In single family permits we see the second year over year monthly decrease (permits down 28% from September 2012, yet total single … (1 comments)
billings mt: Market update at glance august 2013
- 09/10/13 12:03 AM
Market update at glance August 31st 2013 Trends are they my friend? Two thirds of the year over, the residential market in Billings entering the last third of the year, what behavior might we expect from the market place. In single family permits we see the first year over year monthly decrease (permits down 21% from august 2012, yet total single family permits still up 33% for the year. The increase in residential unit sales is up 10% year over year, the decrease in market time is 21% year over year, the absorption rate shows an decrease of 2% year over … (0 comments)
Source: These data are produced by the U.S. Commerce Department's Census Bureau from a survey sponsored by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
THEY MUST NOT BE BUYING NEW HOMES SINCE THE RATE OF NEW HOMES SALES HAS DROPPED 50% SINCE 2000. INTERESTING THOUGHT TO PONDER
<!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="Picture_x0020_2" o:spid="_x0000_i1026" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="" style='width:717pt;height:311.5pt'> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\Users\SUMNER~1\AppData\Local\Temp\msohtmlclip1\01\clip_image003.png" o:href="cid:image007.png@01CEAD35.B90E30F0"/> </v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><!--[endif]--> AND THE POPULATION HAS INCREASED BY APPROXIMATELY 36,000,000 MILLION PEOPLE OR … (2 comments)
billings mt: Housing brain teaser
- 08/23/13 02:43 AM
ONE WOULD THINK THAT AS YOU INCREASED THE POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT IN AREA, DEMAND FOR HOUSING SHOULD INCREASE, THE OTHER THOUGHT THAT COMES TO MIND IF YOU MADE HOUSING LESS EXPENSIVE TO PURCHASE IN RELATION TO INCOME, MORE BUYERS WOULD BE IN THE MARKET PLACE SO THE THOUGHT TO PONDER………………….. ARE THE ABOVE TWO THOUGHTS WRONG OR IS THERE SOMETHING ELSE GOING ON IN THE HOUSING MARKET?
… (1 comments)
billings mt: New construction Nationaly
- 08/18/13 02:13 AM
A broken record maybe, yet when I look at new construction nationally, I ask myself if I had lost 44 to 32% of my ability to walk from an accident, would I consider myself recovered, that’s how much construction is off from the 50 year average. I would venture not a stellar performance, this is most probably driven by the fact, in the prime home buying segment 25 to 54 year olds, nationally their employment is still 6 million fewer working than when we began this economic event.
… (1 comments)
billings mt: Market update at glance thru july 31st 2013
- 08/07/13 08:27 AM
Cycle, cycle, cycle The Second half of the year has begun and the residential market in Billings enters its normal second half of the year behaviour. While we see year over year increases we see month to month decreases. The increase in in unit sales is up 10% year over year while the month over month saw a 6.5% decline, the decrease in market time is 22% year over year, the absorption rate shows an increase of 4% y o y and an increase of 4% month over month, the increase in pending sales is a positive 9% y o y … (0 comments)
billings mt: Judging the market over time
- 07/30/13 07:33 AM
Real-estate values are influenced by several factors, income growth population growth employment growth and interest rate. When looking at Yellowstone County and the current price movements and whether the appreciation is solid or sordid, looking at the underlying factors might lead to a conclusion First is income #1 since 2001 the median family is 34.67% higher Yellowstone County is 51.44% higher
Second is employment #1 since 2001 the Number employed is 18.74% higher
Third is Population #1 since 2001 the population is 18.01% higher, which translates into a need for a total of 9,909 … (0 comments)
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