howard sumner: Market trend question
- 04/08/13 01:34 AM
Does history indicate the future and can we project past norms to discern future trends? Lots of different ways to look at the both the residential sales price market and the price of rentals and their relationship to each other The 1st graph shows the price differential between purchasing a home at the then current interest rate and price and renting an apartment in the Billings area The 2nd graph shows the payment trend at the sales price and interest rate at each year The 3rd graph shows average and median sales prices for each year The 4th graph shows the … (1 comments)
howard sumner: ownership vs. recovery
- 03/20/13 01:22 AM
Thought to ponder from peak ownership rate, to today the ownership rate has dropped 3%, based on the time before the explosion in housing it was holding about another 2% lower than it is today. Based sales and on the information below is the glass half empty or half full or is it as full as it most probably going to get nationwide?
30 year pi median sales price 1985 $932---30 year pi median sales price 2013 $1094 median earnings 1985 $17,88 44.79% of the income to qualify for the payment median earnings 2013 $39,936 85.18% of the … (1 comments)
We are now two months into the year and the good numbers continue to roll through the housing market here in Yellowstone Count, Inventory lower by 18%, pending sales up by 16%, closed sales up by 24%, new home permits up 61% all outstanding performance for the residential market. The driver for most of this outstanding performance comes from three things interest rate and jobs and population growth. First let’s talk about interest rates, the Federal Reserve through buying mortgages and not selling any of previous mortgages has managed to … (0 comments)
howard sumner: Billings Single Family permits vs. nationally
- 02/28/13 11:01 PM
What does recovery in single family new construction look like? When you listen to press you would think that single family new construction Nationally had recovered and is humming along. So I thought it might be useful to see visual as well as number wise where single family new home has been, where it is, then look at the Billings market and compare. 1st the graph below shows Nationally single family permits since January 1st 2005, was the peak year in single family permits nationally. #1 the peak was September of 2005, the single family permits were issued at the rate … (0 comments)
howard sumner: New construction for January Nationally
- 02/28/13 07:30 AM
New construction for January Nationally The box below is basically comparing January of 2012 to January of 2013. The new construction market shows improvements straight across the board which is a positive, as always when you are comparing smaller numbers the percentage increase show as huge move. Permits issued show a more positive outlook than the actually starts.
… (1 comments)
howard sumner: Market update at glance January 2013
- 02/06/13 08:10 AM
Market update at glance January 2013 As I sit and review the performance of the market for January and all of 2012, the increase in in unit sales is outstanding, the decrease in market time is phenomenal, the increase in pending sales is a positive trend, yet then I get to price movement and scratch my head. The normal expectation would be with the type of increase in demand indicated by unit sales, the market should experience pretty dynamitic pricing pressure, yet when you look at the pricing data, that does come through the market. So the question becomes, will the … (0 comments)
howard sumner: The King has no clothes
- 01/27/13 09:40 PM
In the child’s fairy tale, in order to save their lives the tailor’s convinced the King they were weaving his clothes from Gold, of course they could not do that, yet none of the Kings advisors dare mention he had no clothes. When the king went out through the kingdom in his woven gold clothes that did not exist, it was a child that did have the blinded eyes of bending down to power, that he exclaimed “the king has no clothes”. So it with housing, the peak was in 2005 we are now in the eight year from the peak. … (3 comments)
howard sumner: Power on interest rates on Purchasing
- 01/27/13 03:14 AM
The power of interest rates on purchasing When looking at today’s market concerning interest rates the best perspective is look at the economy in the recent past. Since the economic events of 2008 the Federal Reserve has committed to driving interest rates down to spur sales in the housing sector and the economy in general. In 2007 the interest rate average for the year was 6.34% for a thirty year mortgage, fast forward to 2012 the average for the year was 3.66% or a drop of 42.27%. comparing the median sales over that same period of time the median sales price … (1 comments)
howard sumner: simpler home office deduction
- 01/22/13 09:59 PM
The IRS today announced a simplified option that many owners of home-based businesses and some home-based workers may use to figure their deductions for the business use of their homes. In tax year 2010, the most recent year for which figures are available, nearly 3.4 million taxpayers claimed deductions for business use of a home (commonly referred to as the home office deduction). The new optional deduction, capped at $1,500 per year based on $5 a square foot for up to 300 square feet, will reduce the paperwork and recordkeeping burden on small businesses by an estimated 1.6 million hours annually. … (0 comments)
howard sumner: year end rental market report
- 01/20/13 07:10 AM
Year end rental market report this INFORMATION is a composite of over 15,400 SEPARATE ads in 2012 and over 87,000 in the last five years. #1 about 13% fewer units advertised for rent 2012 COMPARED to 2011 #2 about 5% increase in pricing in APARTMENTS for rent 2012 COMPARED to 2011 #3 about 3% increase in pricing in HOMES FOR rent 2012 COMPARED to 2011 #4 the home rental market FOR a three bedroom with GARAGE INDICATES it is cheaper to own than rent. THE AVERAGE RENTAL CHARGE is $1,257 for a three BEDROOM home with a garage. the AVERAGE MONTHLY … (2 comments)
howard sumner: Yellowstone County looking 10 years back
- 01/08/13 11:02 PM
Thought it might be fun to do the ten year comparison for Yellowstone county home sales Soooooooo I thought let’s compare today to ten years ago to today and see what we shall see #1 Population 2002 132,165 vs. 2012 51,814 an increase of 14.86% #2 employment 2002 71,690 vs. 2012 78,672 An increase of 9.73% #3 interest rates 2002 6.54% vs. 2012 3.66% a decrease of 44% #4 Average Wage 2002 $28,535 vs. 2012 $41,532 an increase of 45.54% #5 Consumer CPI 2002 177.7 vs. 2012 231.325 an increase of 30% #6 Sales Price … (0 comments)
howard sumner: BABY BOOMERS AND OTHER MYTHS
- 01/08/13 02:37 AM
RECENTLY WAS READING AN ANALYSIS OF WHAT IS TRANSPIRING IN THE LABOR FORCE ON ONE OF THE GREAT TENANTS THE REASON THE NUMBER OF “NOT IN THE LABOR FORCE IS GROWING IS BABY BOOMERS ARE RETIRING AND LEAVING THE WORK FORCE NOT THAT PEOPLE ARE GIVING UP LOOKING FOR WORK. IF PEOPLE WERE GIVING UP LOOKING FOR WORK THAT WOULD MEAN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS MUCH HIGHER . Not that I am doubting Thomas, yet I wanted to look the information up myself to make sure that i was not passing along :”bad “ information .
so lets look … (0 comments)
howard sumner: national new single family sales
- 01/07/13 09:40 PM
I always marvel at the lack depth of the questions main stream media. For 2012 all the talk about the “recovery” of the new construction single family sales market. Soooooooo I thought let’s compare today to ten years ago to today and see what we shall see #1 employment 2002 130,341,000 vs. 2012 133,238,000 an increase of 2.29% #2 interest rates 2002 6.54% vs. 2012 3.66% a decrease of 44% #3 Average income 2002 $31,899 vs. 2012 $42,503 an increase of 13.62% #4 Consumer CPI 2002 177.7 vs. … (1 comments)
howard sumner: Market update december 2012 end of the year
- 01/06/13 02:49 AM
Market Update at a glance December 2012 We are now through the year and the good numbers continue to roll through the housing market here in Yellowstone Count, Inventory lower by 23%, pending sales up by 24%, closed sales up by 18%, new home permits up 80% all outstanding performance for the residential market. The driver for most of this outstanding performance comes from three things interest rate and jobs and population growth. First let's talk about interest rates, the Federal Reserve through buying mortgages, has managed to drive interest rates to historical lows, 15.4% below last December and 36.67% below … (2 comments)
howard sumner: November National new contruction Numbers
- 01/05/13 10:26 PM
New home contuction continues to show improvement as the genral housing market does. the question is what happens whne the fedral reserve takes away the sugar high of low interst rates. whith rates where they are basically the federal resrve has lowered the interst cost by about 47% since 2007. With that type of boost sales are still 40% below the fity year average which indicates some underlying problems yet to solve .h
… (1 comments)
howard sumner: Market up date at Glance through November 2012
- 12/07/12 02:26 AM
Market up date at Glance through November 2012 Noise, Noise, Noise……. As I sat down to review this months & year to date information, the election ads got me to thinking about all the misleading information you need to sort through to understand the underlying direction of housing within our market place. So first, just a brief diversion into the noise. Of course I mentioned the election, then we have the “fiscal cliff”, the “national debt”, taxing the “rich”, the stock market gyrations, the European union and Greece, Spain, Portugal or Italy’s mess, China’s exports and buying our debt, last but … (0 comments)
howard sumner: price ranges, sales, credit issues?
- 12/06/12 12:22 AM
Looking at trends in pricing over the past few years it got me to wondering about why with a 16% drop in interest rates from 2011 and a 47.1% drop from 2007, what was the makeup of the factors causing a 3% rise in price from 2011 and a 3% rise from 2007 when size is factored in, or said another way based on size, prices in 2007 and 2011 were identical even though interest rate environment was radically different from 2012 and in theory that differential should produce more pronounced changes in price movement. So that leads to the question … (2 comments)
howard sumner: How clear can you forcast -- Yellowstone County-- your city or Area
- 12/02/12 02:43 AM
Thoughts to ponder for Real estate in Yellowstone County 2011 to 2012 Residential sales, number of units up 20% Inventory, number of units, down by 21% Price, considering size, up solid 3% Interest rates are down 16% Number of employed in Yellowstone county is up 2.4% Number of three bedroom homes w/garage for rent down 12.22%
2008 to 2012 Residential sales, number of units up 1.5% Inventory, number of units, down by 34.73% Price, considering size, up solid 1.5% Interest rates are down 44.9% Number of employed in Yellowstone county is down .09% Number of three bedroom homes w/garage for … (1 comments)
Does history indicate the future and can we project past norms to discern future trends?
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