howard sumner: new home constuction Billings Montana
- 11/01/12 01:07 AM
AS THE ECONOMIC CYCLE CHANGES, THE QUESTION COMES TO MIND, HOW ARE WE DOING AS COMPARED TO PAST YEARS PERFORMANCE , HOW FAR CAN HOME SALES AND RESIDENTIAL BUILDING RUN Since 2006 which was the peak in residential sales and 2003 was the peak in permits for new construction we have been in a wild ride, first a market driven by first time buyers tax credits 2009, then a market driven by a tax credit to anyone that bought a home 2010 and now a market driven by historically unheard of interest rates the low 3’s for 30 year and … (1 comments)
howard sumner: home purchaser rise?
- 10/29/12 10:58 PM
Lending institutions are require to report activity under “HMDA” this does not of course cover all activity within the market place, yet produces some interesting information to ponder 2005 you had 11,672,852 loan applications versus 7,382,012 loans received or a 63% success rate for completing a loan 2011 you had 3,816,222 loan applications versus 2,416,874 loans received or a 63% success rate for completing a loan From 2005 to 2011 you have a drop of 67.3% in loan applications and a 67.25% drop in loans received Using the information from Data Quick that shows home sales in … (0 comments)
howard sumner: price of a home since 2000 yellowstone county
- 10/27/12 04:06 AM
I asked myself since the year 2000, twelve years ago, does it cost more to buy a home now in Yellowstone County. Several things influence the answer to that question, the absolute price of the home, the taxes and insurance, the interest rate, and inflation since that time and wages. I went back and took the median sales price of each year, assumed 100% financing at the Freddie mac rate for that year, and then used 30% of the payment to approximate the yearly taxes and insurance. Below are the graphic results and the main numbers. Consumer price index … (0 comments)
howard sumner: national new home constuction
- 10/24/12 09:18 AM
Always in the year of first upward movement from a decline you see what appears to outsized gains in a percentages rise, and that is what you see in permits, in sales, and the total of single family combined with multifamily permits, yet to give a little perspective, on a national basis it is estimated that we destroy about 200,000 housing units a year, so the net effect is an increase of 694,000 housing units added to supply. When you think about the drop still between 70 to 60% from the peak and 35 to 43% from the fifty year … (0 comments)
We are now three quarters through the year and the good numbers continue to roll through the housing market here in Yellowstone Count, Inventory lower by 26%, pending sales up by 26%, closed sales up by 19%, new home permits up 81% all outstanding performance for the residential market. The driver for most of this outstanding performance comes from three things interest rate and jobs and population growth. First let’s talk about interest rates, the Federal Reserve through their “operation twist”, selling short term bonds and buying mortgages and a new commitment to … (0 comments)
howard sumner: Market up date at glance august 2012
- 09/10/12 09:38 PM
Market at a glance august 2012 We are now two thirds through the year and the good numbers continue to roll through the housing market here in Yellowstone Count, Inventory lower by 34%, pending sales up by 48%, closed sales up by 21%, new home permits up 77% all outstanding performance for the residential market. The driver for most of this outstanding performance comes from three things interest rate and jobs and population growth. First let’s talk about interest rates, the Federal Reserve through their “operation twist”, selling short term bonds and buying mortgages, has managed to drive interest rates to … (0 comments)
howard sumner: NEW CONSTUCTION PERMITS, STARTS AND SALES NATIONALLY
- 08/23/12 10:34 PM
GOOD NEWS IS GREAT, UNDERSTANDING IS BETTER, HERE WE ARE THROUGH JULY AND THE NUMBERS YEAR OVER REMAIN IMPRESSIVE ON RESIDENTIAL BUILDING. THAT IS, IF YOU DID NOT LOOK AT THE HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE. IN ANY INDUSTRY, THAT SIX YEARS FROM THE LAST PEAK, WAS STILL RUNNING 63 TO 71% LESS THAN THE PEAK AND 41 TO 52% OFF THE FIFTY YEAR AVERAGES, NO ONE WOULD EVER BE DESCRIBING THAT INDUSTRY AS RECOVERING. JUST ASK YOU SELF WHAT WOULD OTHER INDUSTRIES LOOK LIKE IF THEY WERE STILL OPERATING AT THOSE LEVELS? THE STOCK MARKET IN THOSE TERM, THE DOW WOULD RANGE … (1 comments)
Dichotomy of the market place ----- my best description for our market so far this year.
The positive numbers in all categories at the end of July can only be described in superlatives, closed sales up 18%, pending sales up 43%, inventory down 34%, time on market down 14%, single family permits issued by the City of Billings up 77%, number of rental available down 17%, interest rate on a 30 year fixed rate 3.55% down 21.9% from a year ago, monthly payment to purchase the average priced home in Yellowstone … (1 comments)
howard sumner: new home sales 1st 6 months
- 07/26/12 10:19 PM
Here is a perspective graph comparing the 1st 6 months new home sales throughout the kept history. Recovery !!!!!!!!!!!!! You betcha ya, not quite back to worst period ever before the in the 1st 6 months of the year 1982, and that is seven years from the last peak
AS THE ECONOMIC CYCLE CHANGES, THE QUESTION COMES TO MIND, HOW ARE WE DOING AS COMPARED TO PAST YEARS PERFORMANCE , HOW FAR CAN HOME SALES AND RESIDENTIAL BUILDING RUN 
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