montana: The market and price point performance - 08/23/14 05:36 AM
The market and price point performance
$200,000 and Above
When you segment the market by price range you can more clearly see underlying trends that show up in the “average” performance numbers. Additionally, depending on the price point, there are definitely amenities that are required as you move up in the market. You can tell amenity requirements by the price per square foot pricing. I would caution, not to take the simplistic approach, of multiplying a home size by the price per square foot, since location, age and condition can affect the variability of that number: as an example the 500k … (1 comments)

montana: Market Update at a Glance July 2014 - 08/20/14 02:51 AM
JULY 31ST 2014
“SECOND HALF IS WHERE THE GAME IS WON?”
Two Months of summer gone, second half of the year beginning, so which way will be the direction of the market. First let’s look at closed transactions, July 2014 essentially matched last year in homes closed, 188 closed in 2013, 187 reported so far in July 2014. Number of closed sales in Yellowstone County are 1194 through July  as compared to 1268 in 2013, a 6% decline, so the market is creeping on matching 2013, one factor that stumped us all, is interest rate, the 10 year treasury, is actually … (1 comments)

montana: Nationally New construction, existing home sales and mobile homes - 06/24/14 01:58 AM
Just to cover all the bases, I have expanded this report to include existing home sales and mobile home placements. Globally it now covers the entire housing segment. Permits include both mutli family and single family permits.
So let’s look at the playing field to see how we are doing  9 ½  years on since the last peak.
As a an additional side note the mortgage brokers association reported in May, year over year new purchase application index down 15% and the refinance index is down 73% year over year.
 
Hmmmmmmmmmm I wonder if that means anything
 
 
(0 comments)

montana: Market Update at a Glance May 2014 - 06/07/14 06:56 AM
 
“Winter of discontent and other Myths”
Safely into late spring and the beginning of summer, worth one last time to ask how much winter effected the direction of the market. First let’s look at closed transactions, May 2014 continued with fewer homes closed. Number of closed sales in Yellowstone County are 716 as compared to 788 in 2013, a 9% decline, so in June sales would need to increase approximately 29% above June 2013 to reach the same midyear units closed and put 2014 on track to match 2013, an unlikely event, when May had close to perfect weather and … (0 comments)

montana: Does it "cost" More to buy a home today? - 05/12/14 02:16 AM
When I review the market in Yellowstone county I always try and think of different ways to look at what happens both long term and short term.
With that in mind it prompted me to ask the subject line question. And there are many ways to answer the question, your point of view may determine your answer.
Let’s look at the information on Yellowstone county since 2006, since it was the peak year in sales and we have not reached that level again and most probably will not reach that level of unit sales in 2014 either.
 
First let just … (29 comments)

montana: market update at glance march 2014 - 04/09/14 12:21 AM
“WINTER OVER, DOES SPRING ARRIVE?”
With the first quarter of the year completed, still questions about how much winter effected the direction of the market. First let’s look at closed transactions, March 2014 continues with fewer homes closed, number of closed sales in Yellowstone County are 313 as compared to 427 in 2013, a 13% decline, the same percentage as in January & February, even with cold and snow, the market did not fall further behind, so the question is, does this show strength in the underlying market.  
Single family permits: we see total single family permits have a decrease … (3 comments)

montana: Market update at glance february 2014 - 03/15/14 07:07 AM
 
 
“WHICH TEA LEAVES HAVE MEANING?”
 
With two months of the year completed, still questions about which indicators best discern the direction of the market. First let’s look at closed transactions, February 2014 continues with fewer homes closed, number of closed sales in Yellowstone County are 235 as compared to 269 in 2013, a 13% decline, the same percentage as in January, even with record cold and snow, the market did not fall further behind, so the question is, does this tea leaf show strength in the underlying market.  
 
Single family permits: we see total single family … (1 comments)

montana: new home sales perspective - 02/14/14 12:01 AM
Looking back through time to give perspective
 
New home sales in December were 28,000 thousand, in 1963 fifty years ago they were 31,000

 
 
In 1963 the population was 190,472,000 in 2013 317,479,000 an increase  of 66% new home sales decreased 22.5% in the same time period

 
In 1963 the Nonfarm employment was 57,360,000 in 2013 137,386,000 an increase  of 239.5% new home sales decreased 22.5% in the same time period
 
 
So the thought to ponder……………… if new home sales are lower than in 1963 with an increase employment of 239.5% who is trying … (0 comments)

montana: Market Update at Glance december 2013 End of the Year - 01/11/14 03:45 AM
December 31st 2013
“End of the Year, Dichotomies”
Wow another year and it went by at light speed. 2013 was a two part year, the first half a rocket ship headed for the best year Yellowstone County has ever seen, the second half, while good, had changed dynamics and we ended still 10.62% fewer homes sold than 2006 the peak year for number of sales in Yellowstone County. First I will look at the changes from year end 2012 to year end 2013, and second, I will and look at second half of 2013.  In single family permits we see … (0 comments)

montana: have housing costs gone up? - 12/19/13 03:38 AM
When thinking about the question of housing cost, the question of which is the most important to the consumer, is it the purchase price or is it the monthly payment. While I would not claim that it is absolutely one way or another, generally speaking, my experience is, that monthly cost tends to be the deciding factor in decision making process and yes the purchase price does drive the monthly cost along with interest rate , taxes and insurance.  I thought it would be of interest to look at the market in terms of price range and the most probable monthly … (0 comments)

montana: New Construction Nationally - 12/04/13 06:23 AM
 
When our friends in Washington D.C. shutdown, it meant that some data was not collected. Primarily it effected starts not permit and sales, well that is not quite true, the data below is for October. Sales were not released until December which is a month later than it would normally be and both September and October were released at the same time. The question that comes to my mind is if  you were use to making $100,000 per year for the last 50 years and  had weathered the recession and now were making $68,000 a year would say you had … (1 comments)

montana: NEW CONSTRUCTION BILLINGS MONTANA - 12/02/13 03:01 AM
 
THIS TIME OF YEAR I START ASKING MYSELF QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MARKET PLACE AND THE ANSWERS I ALWAYS FIND INTERESTING
 
NEW CONSTRUCTION IN BILLINGS AREA
 
WHEN LOOKING HOW WELL OR POOR WE ARE DOING THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENT WAYS TO LOOK AT THE SEGMENT.
 
#1 COMPARING NUMBER OF SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS ISSUES
 
#2 COMPARING SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS PLUS DUPLEX PERMITS MULTIPLIED BY 2 FOR LIVING UNITS
 
#3 COMPARING TOTAL DOLLAR VALUE OF PERMITS ISSUED
 
#4 COMPARING POPULATION TO TOTAL OF PERMITS ISSUED
 
#5 COMPARING EMPLOYMENT TOTAL OF PERMITS ISSUED
 
 
 
MY … (0 comments)

montana: County employment Montana - 11/24/13 01:42 AM
 
Since our friends in Washington D.C. decided to shut down for a while. Employment numbers have not been published for a couple months for Montana. Always good to see what is happening with employment since more people working means,  in all likely hood, more homes will be sold. Although not a direct correlation employment is a good predictor, since it is impossible now to qualify for a loan without income.
 
 
 
 
 
(0 comments)

montana: Market update at glance october 2013 - 11/05/13 10:19 AM
 
October 31st 2013
 
“Market Qualifiers”
 
One  theme that I always carry with me about the real estate market or the economy in general is the qualifier to any analysis I do is “ unless our friends in Washington D.C. do something stupid all bets are off” we have now been through a period where I believe the comment applies in spades. So why are the actions or more appropriately inactions of our friends a concern here in paradise where we live? First when people get nervous or are unsure what is occurring they hesitate or hold back.   In … (0 comments)

montana: Have new financing rules affected the market - 10/19/13 03:55 AM
 
You would assume if the price of something dropped that was desirable to purchase that sales of that product would increase. Then why in the housing market would number and percentage of the market drop in the lower price ranges if it cost about 18.5% less to buy today than it did in 2007?
 

 

 

 
 
 
 
(3 comments)

montana: Market update at glance spetmebr 2013 Billings Montana - 10/10/13 04:31 AM
 
Market update at glance
 
September 30th 2013
 
The last quarter shuffle
 
Three Quarters of the year over, the residential market in Billings entering the last Quarter of the year,   what behavior might we expect from the market place. Typically the market slows in the last quarter inventory normally shrinks and sales slow as we head into the holidays, usually the real noticeable shift comes in the second week of November just before thanks giving.                                                                                                            In single family permits we see the second year over year monthly decrease (permits down 28% from September 2012, yet total single … (1 comments)

montana: Market update at glance august 2013 - 09/10/13 12:03 AM
Market update at glance
August 31st 2013
Trends are they my friend?
Two thirds of the year over, the residential market in Billings entering the last third of the year, what behavior might we expect from the market place. In single family permits we see the first year over year monthly decrease (permits down 21% from august 2012, yet total single family permits still up 33% for the year. The increase in residential unit sales is up 10% year over year, the decrease in market time is 21% year over year, the absorption rate shows an decrease of 2% year over … (0 comments)

montana: THE DEATH OF MANUFACTURED (MOBILE) HOMES? - 09/09/13 01:52 AM
SINCE 2000 THROUGH 2012 PLACEMENT OF MOBILE HOMES HAS DROPPED 81.14%, SO A NATURAL QUESTION IS  WHERE DID THOSE PERSON GO TO LIVE?

Source:  These data are produced by the U.S. Commerce Department's Census Bureau from a  survey sponsored by the U.S. Department of                    Housing and Urban Development.
 
 
THEY MUST NOT BE BUYING NEW HOMES SINCE THE RATE OF NEW HOMES SALES HAS DROPPED 50% SINCE 2000.
INTERESTING THOUGHT TO PONDER

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AND THE POPULATION HAS INCREASED BY APPROXIMATELY 36,000,000 MILLION PEOPLE OR … (2 comments)

montana: Housing brain teaser - 08/23/13 02:43 AM
ONE WOULD THINK THAT AS YOU INCREASED THE POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT IN AREA, DEMAND FOR HOUSING SHOULD INCREASE, THE OTHER THOUGHT THAT COMES TO MIND IF YOU MADE HOUSING LESS EXPENSIVE TO PURCHASE IN RELATION TO INCOME, MORE BUYERS WOULD BE IN THE MARKET PLACE
SO THE THOUGHT TO PONDER…………………..
ARE THE ABOVE TWO THOUGHTS WRONG OR IS THERE SOMETHING ELSE GOING ON IN THE HOUSING MARKET?




 
(1 comments)

montana: New construction Nationaly - 08/18/13 02:13 AM
A broken record maybe, yet when I look at new construction nationally, I ask myself if I had lost  44 to 32% of my ability to walk from an accident, would I consider myself recovered, that’s how much construction is off from the 50 year average. I would venture not a stellar performance, this is most probably driven by the fact, in the prime home buying segment  25 to 54 year olds, nationally their employment is still 6 million fewer working than when we began this economic event.
 
 
 
 
(1 comments)

 
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