new construction: Market update at glance May 2016 - 06/18/16 03:26 AM
Market update full report
 
 
Market update at glance
May 31th 2016
“HOW’S THE TRAFFIC” (Again)
Thought I would use an analogy to try and capture the market this month.
Imagine we are going on trip so volume of traffic and  speed limit becomes important to us.
So to indicate the speed limit on or imaginary road I would us the percentage of pending to actives. As of the end of May the “speed limit”  was  71% meaning that if there were a 1,000 active properties we expect 710 pending sales (in 2015 the “speed limit” was 75% ). The next issue on road trip is how much … (1 comments)

new construction: market update at glance june 2015 - 07/09/15 02:03 AM
 
direct link to total blog
http://www.realestatemontana.com/Blog
 
June 30th 2015
 “Perception Working Reality”
When I moved to Montana 43 years ago, one of the things I found fascinating  was perception of temperature, you go through a week of -10 to -20 below zero, then it “warms” to 20 above and the perception changes, that it is warm, you see people not wearing coats  and behavior changes. This month’s update starts with discussion of a perception. 
This year market the velocity has been quick. One of my thumb nails of the market strength, is the percentage of pending sales to active listings, that ratio hit 84% in … (0 comments)

new construction: Market update at glance February 2015 - 03/15/15 12:19 AM
 
Market update at glance
 
February 28th 2015
 
 “Oh what difference weather and interest rate makes, within the market place”
 
I think I will start Februarys market update with the quote from an ad on television I remember as I was growing up from alka sizzler,” plop, plop, fizz, fizz Oh what a relief it is”. I think that best describes the activity since weather warmed and interest rates dropped in 2015 Market.  At the end of February 2015, closed sales down -7%, pending sales up 23 %, inventory down    -7%, and interest rates down-15% from the year … (1 comments)

new construction: Market update at glance January 2015 - 02/15/15 03:49 AM
http://www.realestatemontana.com/Blog/Market-Update-at-glance-January-2015
above a link to the complete article

January 31st 2015

 “Anomalies, within the market place”

I think I will start Januarys market update with the same quote as Decembers, In the immortal words attributed to Yogi Berra "It's Hard to Make Predictions, Especially about the Future". I think that best describes 2015 Market.  At the end of January 2015, closed sales down -9%, pending sales down -1%, inventory down    -3%, and interest rates down-17% from the year earlier. As of the end of the week of February 3rd the rig count in North Dakota is down 36 … (1 comments)

new construction: Market update at a glance October 31st 2014 - 11/12/14 04:12 AM
Market update at glance
October 31st 2014
 “Don’t bet against the Fed’s Printing Money”
A comment about the title, since 2008 the Federal Reserve has accumulated approximately 1.7 trillion dollars in Mortgage back securities. This October they indicated any principal received would be reinvested into the mortgage market, so the Fed’s oversized influence on the mortgage market will stay until they decide to reduce the size of the holdings, which is approximately 17% of all mortgage back securities, the main source of mortgage money.
First let’s look at closed transactions, October 2014 continued with fewer homes closed. Number of closed sales … (1 comments)

new construction: The Eternal Questions of Real Estate - 11/07/14 01:44 AM
The Eternal Questions of Real Estate
#1 How much is my home worth?
#2 Should I refinance?
#3 Is now a good time buy?
#4 Will it pay me to do this _ _ _ _ _ Remodel Project?
My standard answers are it depends. What follows is both factual information and guidance to try and sort through the proper answers for the questions. I have prepared some graphs to show how the market and payments have changed since 2006. I choose 2006 since it was the peak in the number of homes sold in Yellowstone County.
#1 How much is … (0 comments)

new construction: Market Update at a Glance August 2014 - 09/16/14 12:36 AM
August 31st 30th 2014
 “End of the Summer”
First let’s look at closed transactions, August 2014 continued with fewer homes closed. Number of closed sales in Yellowstone County are 1424 August 2014 as compared to 1516 in August 2013, a 6% decline. Monthly year over year same story monthly year over year August 2013 199, August 2104 187.
Residential pending unit sales are down -3% years over year.  To compare; 2013 August pending unit sales were up 6% over August 2012. (2012 there were 350 pending sales; 2013 there were 372 pending sales, 2014 there are 359 pending sales).   
(0 comments)

new construction: Renting versus Buying, Myths and Anomalies - 09/06/14 12:11 AM
In the world today with the perspective of the past five years and the “housing collapse” many have written that owning a home is less desirable the Renting. As in all things about housing, “national” trends may not be as applicable to any individual Market. We that live in Yellowstone are fortunate to have a stable and growing economy where most every segment has experienced some growth over since 2009.  A few “facts” about Yellowstone County in July of 2014 the employment report indicates 82,419 persons employed in 2009 shows 77,985, an increase of 4,434. In July of 2019 the Freddie … (0 comments)

new construction: The market and price point performance - 08/23/14 05:36 AM
The market and price point performance
$200,000 and Above
When you segment the market by price range you can more clearly see underlying trends that show up in the “average” performance numbers. Additionally, depending on the price point, there are definitely amenities that are required as you move up in the market. You can tell amenity requirements by the price per square foot pricing. I would caution, not to take the simplistic approach, of multiplying a home size by the price per square foot, since location, age and condition can affect the variability of that number: as an example the 500k … (1 comments)

new construction: Market Update at a Glance July 2014 - 08/20/14 02:51 AM
JULY 31ST 2014
“SECOND HALF IS WHERE THE GAME IS WON?”
Two Months of summer gone, second half of the year beginning, so which way will be the direction of the market. First let’s look at closed transactions, July 2014 essentially matched last year in homes closed, 188 closed in 2013, 187 reported so far in July 2014. Number of closed sales in Yellowstone County are 1194 through July  as compared to 1268 in 2013, a 6% decline, so the market is creeping on matching 2013, one factor that stumped us all, is interest rate, the 10 year treasury, is actually … (1 comments)

new construction: Is renting cheaper than buying in Billings montana? - 08/03/14 11:14 PM
Since there seems to be a lot of press about how it may be better to rent than buy a home, I thought I would compare current asking price for renting different types of homes Yellowstone county to the same basic description of the selling price of a home and the payment needed to own that home. The monthly home payment is figured at 100%  financing with a FHA at 4.12% 30 year loan, using 26% for taxes and insurance . The asking price for rents comes from my weekly survey of rental availability. Through this weekend that would be over … (1 comments)

new construction: Market update at glance June 2014 - 07/10/14 12:45 AM
Market update at glance
June 30th 2014
“Questions to ponder about the market”
The first half of 2014 is past, now is the time to ask questions about the direction of the market and comparisons to gain and illuminate knowledge that might be found.
So instead of my usually format, questions will be both the information and thoughts of where the market might be. All the question comparisons are from January 1st to June 30th, 2014 to 2013 - 2013 to 2012.
#1 Why are closed sales down year over year in 2014 by -6%, when they were up +9% … (0 comments)

new construction: Nationally New construction, existing home sales and mobile homes - 06/24/14 01:58 AM
Just to cover all the bases, I have expanded this report to include existing home sales and mobile home placements. Globally it now covers the entire housing segment. Permits include both mutli family and single family permits.
So let’s look at the playing field to see how we are doing  9 ½  years on since the last peak.
As a an additional side note the mortgage brokers association reported in May, year over year new purchase application index down 15% and the refinance index is down 73% year over year.
 
Hmmmmmmmmmm I wonder if that means anything
 
 
(0 comments)

new construction: Market Update at a Glance May 2014 - 06/07/14 06:56 AM
 
“Winter of discontent and other Myths”
Safely into late spring and the beginning of summer, worth one last time to ask how much winter effected the direction of the market. First let’s look at closed transactions, May 2014 continued with fewer homes closed. Number of closed sales in Yellowstone County are 716 as compared to 788 in 2013, a 9% decline, so in June sales would need to increase approximately 29% above June 2013 to reach the same midyear units closed and put 2014 on track to match 2013, an unlikely event, when May had close to perfect weather and … (0 comments)

new construction: Does it "cost" More to buy a home today? - 05/12/14 02:16 AM
When I review the market in Yellowstone county I always try and think of different ways to look at what happens both long term and short term.
With that in mind it prompted me to ask the subject line question. And there are many ways to answer the question, your point of view may determine your answer.
Let’s look at the information on Yellowstone county since 2006, since it was the peak year in sales and we have not reached that level again and most probably will not reach that level of unit sales in 2014 either.
 
First let just … (29 comments)

new construction: Market Update at a Glance April 2014 - 05/08/14 04:12 AM
APRIL 30ST 2014
“APRIL SHOWERS, BRING MAY FLOWERS?”
Now one third of the year completed no question about how much winter effected the direction of the market. First let’s look at closed transactions,  April 2014 continued with fewer homes closed, number of closed sales in Yellowstone County are 519 as compared to 519 in 2013, a 12% decline, one percentage point  less decline than  in January,  February and March, the market showing  a little strength in the underlying sales.  
Single family permits: we see total single family permits for the first four months  have a decrease of 29% for year … (1 comments)

new construction: market update at glance march 2014 - 04/09/14 12:21 AM
“WINTER OVER, DOES SPRING ARRIVE?”
With the first quarter of the year completed, still questions about how much winter effected the direction of the market. First let’s look at closed transactions, March 2014 continues with fewer homes closed, number of closed sales in Yellowstone County are 313 as compared to 427 in 2013, a 13% decline, the same percentage as in January & February, even with cold and snow, the market did not fall further behind, so the question is, does this show strength in the underlying market.  
Single family permits: we see total single family permits have a decrease … (3 comments)

new construction: Market update at glance february 2014 - 03/15/14 07:07 AM
 
 
“WHICH TEA LEAVES HAVE MEANING?”
 
With two months of the year completed, still questions about which indicators best discern the direction of the market. First let’s look at closed transactions, February 2014 continues with fewer homes closed, number of closed sales in Yellowstone County are 235 as compared to 269 in 2013, a 13% decline, the same percentage as in January, even with record cold and snow, the market did not fall further behind, so the question is, does this tea leaf show strength in the underlying market.  
 
Single family permits: we see total single family … (1 comments)

new construction: Market update at glance January 2014 - 02/10/14 01:45 AM
January 31st 2014
“THE ANSWER OF THE YEAR?”
We start 2014 with lots of questions about the direction of the market, with conflicting signals and yellow flashing warning lights. First let’s look at closed transactions, changed dynamics in 2013 continue in 2014 with fewer homes closed, number of sales in Yellowstone County are 112 as compared to 129 in 2013 , a 13% decline,  only one month of small data, does not a trend make. Yet In single family permits we see total single family permits have a decrease of 26% for January year over year (2014 20 permits, 2013 … (0 comments)

new construction: national new home constructions 2013 end of year - 01/27/14 04:30 AM
 
End of the year new home sales released today. So a great time to look back and ask the perianal question  “Has single family new construction nationally recovered?”
 
You would think that after eight years from the peak that would be an irrelevant question at this point, unfortunately not. Since 2005 which was the peak in the building cycle interest rate has dropped -37.12% from 6.33% average in 2005 to 3.98% average for 2013. In any “normal” economy (whatever that is now) that type of shift would have home sales explode. Yet from 2005 that peak year we see … (0 comments)

 
Howard Sumner, Your Real Estate Source, Your Results Solution!! (Howard Sumner Consulting)

Howard Sumner

Your Real Estate Source, Your Results Solution!!

Billings, MT

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Howard Sumner Consulting

Address: 404 north 31st street, suite 130, billings, mt, 59101

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