new home construction: Market update at glance May 2016 - 06/18/16 03:26 AM
Market update full report
 
 
Market update at glance
May 31th 2016
“HOW’S THE TRAFFIC” (Again)
Thought I would use an analogy to try and capture the market this month.
Imagine we are going on trip so volume of traffic and  speed limit becomes important to us.
So to indicate the speed limit on or imaginary road I would us the percentage of pending to actives. As of the end of May the “speed limit”  was  71% meaning that if there were a 1,000 active properties we expect 710 pending sales (in 2015 the “speed limit” was 75% ). The next issue on road trip is how much … (1 comments)

new home construction: New Home Sales Nationally - 06/06/16 01:36 AM
Was just looking at the median price of new homes in the united states, in April of 2006 the median price was $257,000 Freddie mac commitment for a 30 year loan was 6.51% making a 100% financed home with 26% for taxes and insurance cost of $2048.89 per month.
Move forward to 2016 April
the median price was $321,100 Freddie mac commitment for a 30 year loan was 3.60% making a 100% financed home with 26% for taxes and insurance cost of $1839.41 per month or an ownership cost 10.22% below 2006.
Through the end of April 2006 in the united states … (2 comments)

new home construction: market update at glance March 2016 - 04/16/16 05:12 AM
Market update full Article
 
 
MARCH 31st 2016
 “FIGURES NEVER LIE, YET LIARS FIGURE. WHERE’S THE MARKET 2016”
March’s market update starts with “SO WHAT’S THE REAL DIRECTION OF THE MARKET”.
One thing I have learned about watching the market and helping clients and customers make good decisions about real estate buying and selling: first and foremost put together the most accurate and representative information I can find. Having do this for 30 plus years I know if I want no matter how the market is performing I can slant the information either in a positive or negative light. As an example one measurement of the … (0 comments)

new home construction: Market update February 2016 yellowstone county montana - 03/16/16 02:09 AM
 
Read full article here
 
FEBRUARY 29Th 2016
 “READY SET, WHOA OR GO!!, LOOKING AT 2016”
February’s market update starts with “Let’s think different and ask different questions”.
I believe it has been awhile since I addressed the issue of what I try to achieve with the information I collect and distribute.  The first issue is to understand that essentially all the “numbers” I put together, in reality, are indexes of activity in the market place. Why may you ask is that important, while it is true I strive to create an accurate representation, in the end though, it is still a partial representation of the … (2 comments)

new home construction: Market update at glance January 2016 - 02/19/16 01:35 AM
 
LInk to full article market update january 2016
Market update at glance
JANUARY 31ST 201
 “READY SET GO!!, LOOKING AT 2016 ”
January’s market update starts with “THANK ALL OF YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT AND BUSINESS”.
The end of JANUARY 2016 numbers, closed sales up +17%, pending sales up +1 %, inventory  up +12%, and interest rates up +5% from the year earlier. The interest rate trend of year over year declines did end in December and did not continued this month (JANUARY). My prediction, all things being equally, rates should be marginally higher in 2016 than 2015. Yet the wild card is the international markets … (1 comments)

new home construction: Market update at glance September 2015 - 10/20/15 01:26 AM
Market update at glance
September 30th 2015
“History and Fall, a couple favorites of mine”
September’s market update starts with discussion Historical perspective. Those that have read these report for a while know that the high point in activity for residential sales was 2006, in that year there was 2043 “home sales” in Yellowstone county, there was 551 single family living units (single family plus duplex) created by permits taken out in the city of Billings. Average sales price was $191,850; 30 year fixed rate was 6.41%, making the PITI payment $1,531 dollars per month. Fast forward to this year 2015 residential sales … (1 comments)

new home construction: Through the looking glass - Alice in the wonderland of Housing - 08/23/15 11:55 PM
Through the looking glass - Alice in the wonderland of Housing
What follow is an analysis of Yellowstone County and the housing market to see if we can discern where it might head over the next couple of years by understanding income and household growth to see if we are in “balance” or has there been more housing produced than what is needed by growth or has pricing outpaced income.
Two things that are important to know 2006 was the year in which the greatest number of residential properties were sold in the mls and 2013 was the (I think) the bottom of … (3 comments)

new home construction: 2006 vs. 2015 is housing “cheaper” - 07/22/15 03:28 AM
http://www.realestatemontana.com/Blog/comparing-2006-to-2015-real-estate-market-Yellowstone-County
 
 
Time to look back and see where the market has traveled. I use 2006 as a base year for comparison to 2015 since 2006 is the peak year in terms of number of sales in Yellowstone County. The residential market has yet to surpass the number units sold 2006 even though Yellowstone County has more jobs, income and lower interest rates. So let’s take a look back
 
 
 
First here is a quick glance at comparisons
 
When we take a quick look at the drivers of housing, population, employment and income, they all look healthy and in the positive, with the average wage … (3 comments)

new home construction: market update at glance june 2015 - 07/09/15 02:03 AM
 
direct link to total blog
http://www.realestatemontana.com/Blog
 
June 30th 2015
 “Perception Working Reality”
When I moved to Montana 43 years ago, one of the things I found fascinating  was perception of temperature, you go through a week of -10 to -20 below zero, then it “warms” to 20 above and the perception changes, that it is warm, you see people not wearing coats  and behavior changes. This month’s update starts with discussion of a perception. 
This year market the velocity has been quick. One of my thumb nails of the market strength, is the percentage of pending sales to active listings, that ratio hit 84% in … (0 comments)

new home construction: Market update through May 31st 2015 yellowstone county - 06/10/15 12:26 AM
http://www.realestatemontana.com/Blog/Market-Update-at-glance-May-2015
 
“Inventory Shortage and other Myths”
 
Mays market update starts with discussion of a comment both locally and nationally that there is a “shortage “of inventory.  Actually though when you look at activity in the market place it says something quite different. First let’s define inventory, my belief is you can look at one of two ways, one would be the “active homes for sale only” or when trying to understand the market in total, inventory includes “active pending and closed” (this represents total inventory activity). When looking at the only “active” you would say yes, inventory is down, May 2014  622 active … (0 comments)

new home construction: market update at glance march 2015 - 04/11/15 01:11 AM
 
 
 
March 31th 2015
 
 “Oh what difference weather and interest rate makes, within the market place”
 
I think I will start March’s market update with an analogy to the college basketball events that occur every year and that is “March Madness” only we do not end up with a final four. I do think “March Madness” best describes the activity since weather warmed and interest rates dropped in 2015 Market.  At the end of March 2015, closed sales up +5%, pending sales up +33 %, inventory down    -11%, and interest rates down-13% from the year earlier.
 
As of the end of the week of … (0 comments)

new home construction: Market update at a glance October 31st 2014 - 11/12/14 04:12 AM
Market update at glance
October 31st 2014
 “Don’t bet against the Fed’s Printing Money”
A comment about the title, since 2008 the Federal Reserve has accumulated approximately 1.7 trillion dollars in Mortgage back securities. This October they indicated any principal received would be reinvested into the mortgage market, so the Fed’s oversized influence on the mortgage market will stay until they decide to reduce the size of the holdings, which is approximately 17% of all mortgage back securities, the main source of mortgage money.
First let’s look at closed transactions, October 2014 continued with fewer homes closed. Number of closed sales … (1 comments)

new home construction: new home sales perspective - 02/14/14 12:01 AM
Looking back through time to give perspective
 
New home sales in December were 28,000 thousand, in 1963 fifty years ago they were 31,000

 
 
In 1963 the population was 190,472,000 in 2013 317,479,000 an increase  of 66% new home sales decreased 22.5% in the same time period

 
In 1963 the Nonfarm employment was 57,360,000 in 2013 137,386,000 an increase  of 239.5% new home sales decreased 22.5% in the same time period
 
 
So the thought to ponder……………… if new home sales are lower than in 1963 with an increase employment of 239.5% who is trying … (0 comments)

 
Howard Sumner, Your Real Estate Source, Your Results Solution!! (Howard Sumner Consulting)

Howard Sumner

Your Real Estate Source, Your Results Solution!!

Billings, MT

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Howard Sumner Consulting

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