Market update at glance May 31th 2016 “HOW’S THE TRAFFIC” (Again) Thought I would use an analogy to try and capture the market this month. Imagine we are going on trip so volume of traffic and speed limit becomes important to us. So to indicate the speed limit on or imaginary road I would us the percentage of pending to actives. As of the end of May the “speed limit” was 71% meaning that if there were a 1,000 active properties we expect 710 pending sales (in 2015 the “speed limit” was 75% ). The next issue on road trip is how much … (1 comments)
new homes for sales: New Home Sales Nationally
- 06/06/16 01:36 AM
Was just looking at the median price of new homes in the united states, in April of 2006 the median price was $257,000 Freddie mac commitment for a 30 year loan was 6.51% making a 100% financed home with 26% for taxes and insurance cost of $2048.89 per month. Move forward to 2016 April the median price was $321,100 Freddie mac commitment for a 30 year loan was 3.60% making a 100% financed home with 26% for taxes and insurance cost of $1839.41 per month or an ownership cost 10.22% below 2006. Through the end of April 2006 in the united states … (2 comments)
FEBRUARY 29Th 2016 “READY SET, WHOA OR GO!!, LOOKING AT 2016” February’s market update starts with “Let’s think different and ask different questions”. I believe it has been awhile since I addressed the issue of what I try to achieve with the information I collect and distribute. The first issue is to understand that essentially all the “numbers” I put together, in reality, are indexes of activity in the market place. Why may you ask is that important, while it is true I strive to create an accurate representation, in the end though, it is still a partial representation of the … (2 comments)
new homes for sales: Market update at glance January 2016
- 02/19/16 01:35 AM
LInk to full article market update january 2016 Market update at glance JANUARY 31ST 201 “READY SET GO!!, LOOKING AT 2016 ” January’s market update starts with “THANK ALL OF YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT AND BUSINESS”. The end of JANUARY 2016 numbers, closed sales up +17%, pending sales up +1 %, inventory up +12%, and interest rates up +5% from the year earlier. The interest rate trend of year over year declines did end in December and did not continued this month (JANUARY). My prediction, all things being equally, rates should be marginally higher in 2016 than 2015. Yet the wild card is the international markets … (1 comments)
DECEMBER 31ST 2015 “LOOKING BACK, end of the year 2015 report” December’s market update starts with “THANK ALL OF YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT AND BUSINESS”. The end of DECEMBER 2015 numbers, closed sales up +5%, pending sales up +21 %, inventory up +1%, and interest rates up +3% from the year earlier. The interest rate trend of year over year declines will end this month (December) would be my prediction, which is what happened. All things being equally, rates should be marginally higher in 2016 than 2015. As of the end of the week of January 8th the rig count in North … (1 comments)
new homes for sales: Market update for July 2015
- 08/20/15 10:51 PM
“DOG DAYS OF SUMMER” In recognition of the time of year this written report is much shorter At the end of July 2015, closed sales are up +8%, pending sales up +13 %, inventory down -11%, and interest rates down -2% from the year earlier. As of the end of the week of August 7th the rig count in North Dakota is down -111 rigs since last year, 71 working in 2015 and 182 working in 2014. Let’s look at closed transactions, Number of closed sales in Yellowstone County, 1310 through July 2015 as compared to 1212 in July 2014 showing an increase … (2 comments)
Time to look back and see where the market has traveled. I use 2006 as a base year for comparison to 2015 since 2006 is the peak year in terms of number of sales in Yellowstone County. The residential market has yet to surpass the number units sold 2006 even though Yellowstone County has more jobs, income and lower interest rates. So let’s take a look back
First here is a quick glance at comparisons
When we take a quick look at the drivers of housing, population, employment and income, they all look healthy and in the positive, with the average wage … (3 comments)
June 30th 2015 “Perception Working Reality” When I moved to Montana 43 years ago, one of the things I found fascinating was perception of temperature, you go through a week of -10 to -20 below zero, then it “warms” to 20 above and the perception changes, that it is warm, you see people not wearing coats and behavior changes. This month’s update starts with discussion of a perception. This year market the velocity has been quick. One of my thumb nails of the market strength, is the percentage of pending sales to active listings, that ratio hit 84% in … (0 comments)
Mays market update starts with discussion of a comment both locally and nationally that there is a “shortage “of inventory. Actually though when you look at activity in the market place it says something quite different. First let’s define inventory, my belief is you can look at one of two ways, one would be the “active homes for sale only” or when trying to understand the market in total, inventory includes “active pending and closed” (this represents total inventory activity). When looking at the only “active” you would say yes, inventory is down, May 2014 622 active … (0 comments)
In the immortal words of the Grateful Dead “what a long strange trip it has been”. I think that best describes 2014 Market. At the end of the 1st quarter 2014, closed sales down -13%, pending sales -1%, inventory up 4%, and interest rates up 22% from the year earlier. At that point I would have let you bet a dollar and I would have matched with $50 about 2014 catching or surpassing 2013, you would have taken my $50. As I said last month, probably should not bet … (0 comments)
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