home sales: Interest Rates Don't Impact Housing As You Might Think
- 02/13/23 03:27 PM
As mortgage interest rates change, real estate market experts surface and make bold claims on how the market will evolve. They state, as fact, that rising rates mean cooling sales while declining rates equate to rising sales.
I've read these claims for 31 years, but I wondered if they were true. The data has been gathered, and my short video shows why you might be stunned by what the analysis uncovered.
Does The Housing Market Predictably Move With Changing Interest Rates?< Please remember to "like" the post and the video on YouTube too! Thank you.
🏡 Link to all homes for sale in Tallahassee
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home sales: Can The Housing Market Keep Going At This Rate?
- 04/06/21 04:12 AM
The housing market is clipping along nicely, but is it too nice?
Can the housing market continue to produce sales at the rate we're seeing today, or is this a case of what goes up, must come down? The answer to the housing market sustainability can be found with a study of historic home sales rates and population growth trends.
Looking to the past is the first step in the process of forecasting future home sales. Watch this video with its graphs and analysis of thirty years of home sales to learn more.
Please remember to "like" the post and the video on … (2 comments)
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home sales: Do Realtors Perpetuate Lies About Average Market Time?
- 05/25/12 12:09 AM
If you want to sell a home, then you most likely are curious about the average market time for homes similar to yours.
One of the hardest aspects of choosing when to move is trying to choreograph a departure date from one home to your arrival date at the next home.
The fact that you do not know how long the average market time for a home like yours is going to be, makes the decision difficult to establish.
Many homeowners have planned to move their families with a specific "key date" in mind, only to find their home languishing on … (4 comments)
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home sales: 7 Tips To Help You Avoid Stupid Mistakes When Selling A House
- 04/06/12 01:03 AM
So many people get off on the wrong foot when they first launch their house selling plan.
The National Association of REALTORS claims that 64% of homeowners hire the first real estate agent that they speak to, and the hiring decision is based upon two simple factors:
Do they like the real estate agent? and Do they like the price the agent gave them for the value of the home. At face value, that seems relatively harmless, but if you dig deeper to understand the way a modern home selling plan works, then you will quickly discover what more than 50% … (7 comments)
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home sales: Why Some Neighborhoods Sell Slower Than Other Comparable Neighborhoods
- 02/01/12 01:25 AM
Piney Z home sales were down significantly in 2011, and a new "low" was hit with only 28 homes sold in 2011, down 10% from 2010. This means we have seen 8 straight declining years, something that I have not seen often from the rest of the Tallahassee real estate market.
Typically, when we see unit sales decline faster than the rest of the market, we are experiencing a Tallahassee neighborhood where home owners are “holding on” trying to find higher prices. This can work for a short period of times in a stronger market, but at some point, capitulation will … (21 comments)
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home sales: Home Sales Struggle Just Above Market Bottom
- 09/04/11 03:03 PM
Tallahassee traditionally sees about 10 closed sales per day, on average, posted in the Tallahassee MLS. Our graph below shows the one-year trend of closed home sales going back to 2002, and it is quite clear we have been well below average for the past four years. Of course, we were well above average for the five years prior, so the current correction should not be a great surprise.
Currently, closed sales in the MLS are fairly flat at just over 6 per day, and this is lower than what we saw at this time during the previous two years.
… (0 comments)
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home sales: Another Market Bottom Reached In Tallahassee Real Estate
- 08/15/11 11:14 PM
It is no fun to have to report that Tallahassee has reached a new housing market bottom (again). The new housing market bottom was reached in July, and our measured evidence suggests that we have further declines to look forward to in the coming months.
Slow Home Sales Lead To New Housing Market Bottom Our first realestate graph shows the number of home sales recorded in Leon County each month, and the current one-year trend has reached a new low as of the end of July. This new housingmarket bottom shows signs that we have not actually hit the bottom … (2 comments)
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home sales: Less Than 1 In 2 Homes For Sale Are Selling
- 08/14/11 11:58 AM
One statistic that we have been maintaining at The Market Bulletin is a measurement that we refer to as the “Sales Success Rate.” Recently, the one-year trend has dropped from a two-year high, after returning from a low of 30% reached in June of 2009.
By dividing the total number of closed sales by the total number of new listings, over a specific time period, we can show a trend that gives a hint at how many homes (as a percentage of the total) are actually selling.
Conversely, we can measure the home sales failure rate as the total number of … (2 comments)
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home sales: Home Sales Success Rates Still Too Low
- 03/22/11 02:18 PM
One statistic that we have been maintaining at The Market Bulletin is a measurement that we refer to as the “Sales Success Rate.” Recently, the one-year trend has dropped from a two-year high, after returning from a low of 30% reached in June of 2009.
By dividing the total number of closed sales by the total number of new listings, over a specific time period, we can show a trend that gives a hint at how many homes (as a percentage of the total) are actually selling. Conversely, we can measure the home sales failure rate as the total number … (2 comments)
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home sales: Where Are All The Failed Home Sales Going?
- 02/07/11 01:32 AM
As one of the most active neighborhoods in Tallahassee, the Southwood Subdivision is important to monitor even if you do not live there. We always have to remember that the overall state of the Tallahassee housing market is influenced by all the homes for sale in our area.
Currently, there are 59 homes for sale in Southwood (listed in the Tallahassee MLS) and 9 of them are new construction and surprisingly “only” 20% of the homes listed are distressed properties. With all the lis pendens filed in Tallahassee in 2010, we are expecting significantly more than 20% of of our sales … (2 comments)
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home sales: Housing Market Decline: Real Versus Relative
- 01/28/11 06:44 PM
With 20 years of home sales data to review, it is sad to see that 2010 surpassed 2009 as the worst year on record.
What makes this even worse than what we can see in the real estate graphs below is that our population is roughly 20% larger today than it was in 1991.
The relative drop in the market is far worse than the real drop that we see. With a larger local population, there should be more people that need to move, thus recent years would have more home sales than previous ones if there were not market … (0 comments)
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home sales: What Is Your Home Sales Success Rate?
- 11/30/10 12:28 AM
Home Sellers are finding tougher market conditions as the home sales failure rate continues to climb towards 60%. What this means is that over the past 365 days, roughly 40% of the homes that were listed actually sold, while 60% failed to sell! Certainly not what home sellers were thinking when they listed.
In the real estate graph above, the green area shows the percentage of home sellers who were successful, while the red area shows the percentage of sellers who failed. As the red area continues to expand, don’t be surprised if we head back to the 30% success … (2 comments)
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home sales: The Existing Home Sales Report Is Old News
- 10/25/10 03:02 AM
In less than half an hour, the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) will publish the monthly existing home sales report. Based upon the recently published Pending Home Sales report, I would not be surprised if it shows a seasonally adjusted rise in the number of homes that sold over the past year. But don’t get too excited.
When the Pending Home Sales report was published a few weeks ago, the chief economist for NAR (Lawrence Yun) explained:
“The pace of a home sales recovery still depends more on job creation and an accompanying rise in consumer confidence.”
So basically, a smarter … (0 comments)
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home sales: Daily Closed Home Sales Begin To Decline
- 07/26/10 01:49 AM
The daily closed home sales information graph has been updated. The Homebuyer Tax Credit has come and gone, and by the looks of it the Tallahassee real estate market benefited as planned by our leaders in Washington.
The real question now is will the stimulus provided over the past year be a starting point in the housing market recovery? Or will it have been just a wasteful exercise in government spending that only acted as a temporary band-aid for a harder ailing market? The easiest way to find this answer is to observe daily closed home sales and not the current … (0 comments)
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home sales: What Happens When Homes Fail To Sell?
- 05/11/10 10:52 PM
The rate at which home sellers “failed to sell” has been dropping since August 2009, when the rate hit 85%. We measure the total number of listing failures (homes that expired, canceled, or were withdrawn) in the Tallahassee MLS, and divide that number by the total number of new listings over the same period of time. Currently, the trend is at 72%, which while better than before, still isn’t very good if you want to sell a home.
Even though the failed to sell rate continues to improve for home sellers, the fact is that nearly 3 out of every … (10 comments)
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home sales: Residential Sales Trends Provide Clear Cyclical Forecast
- 03/21/10 12:59 AM
When we look at residential sales trends in Tallahassee, the signs are VERY CLEAR in how 2010 is going to proceed for home sellers. There are parts of real estate cycles that can be confusing, but there are also segments of the real estate cycle that is very clear and easy to forecast. This is one of those times when the “writing is on the wall.”
Yesterday, we provided a real estate market snapshot on average home prices in Tallahassee which showed that the average home price had fallen to levels last seen at the beginning of 2004. Today, we are … (0 comments)
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home sales: Neighborhood Report Shows Distressed Properties' Impact
- 01/22/10 02:00 AM
Tallahassee has a lot of subdivisions for the number of homes in town. In 2009, there were home sales recorded in 806 of these Tallahassee neighborhoods (legally called Subdivisions). I decided to take a fairly quick look to see which neighborhoods were selling the most properties.
I went to the tax records for all of Leon County, Florida in order to determine the following:
How many homes sold in each Tallahassee subdivision. What was the average home price in each subdivision. What percent of home sales were not “arms length.” At what discount did non-arms length home sales trade to arms … (0 comments)
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home sales: 3 Big Keys To Selling Your Home In 2010
- 01/06/10 11:26 PM
We just hit the “1,000 Subscribers” mark today! If you haven’t subscribed to the Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter, you can subscribe right now in our updated form in the right sidebar of the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog!
If you have decided that you must sell a home in 2010, then I recommend that you prepare yourself for a successful (ad)venture. You see, right now, nearly 80% of homeowners who decided to sell their home over the past year failed (they still own the home), but you do not have to be like them.
I would encourage you to prepare a successful … (2 comments)
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home sales: Northeast Tallahassee Home Values Down 13%
- 12/04/09 12:34 AM
Recently, somebody asked me how home sales in Northeast Tallahassee are holding up. I explained that this part of the Tallahassee real estate market accounted for roughly one half of the home sales (49% over the past twelve months) and was performing stronger than the other three quadrants of Leon County.
Just a reminder, you can subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter (free) in the right sidebar of the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog. This monthly newsletter provides analysis of the housing market with charts and graphs to support the finding.
The best starting point when analyzing an area or subdivision … (0 comments)
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home sales: After 40 Months, Growth Returns To Housing Market
- 11/09/09 10:45 PM
Something positive occurred in the Tallahassee real estate market during the month of October. It was long awaited, yet one month prior to my prediction made earlier this year, so I am very excited to report REAL PROOF of a housing market improvement in Tallahassee.
We finally put a halt to a run of year over year declines in home sales! Previously, the Tallahassee housing market experienced a 39 month run, from July 2006 through September 2009, of year over year home sales declines! October records show more home sales this year than October of last year (242 total home sales … (12 comments)
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As mortgage interest rates change, real estate market experts surface and make bold claims on how the market will evolve. They state, as fact, that rising rates mean cooling sales while declining rates equate to rising sales.
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