nar: Are You Quoting This Bogus Statistic Too? - 04/03/16 11:28 PM
Every time I read a real estate statistics report generated by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), I try to figure out if they are purposely misleading the public or if they are just not knowledgeable about real estate brokerage.
You see, NAR likes to use data to deliver its message (now is the time to buy a home!). Instead, wouldn't it be nice if they were to use their comprehensive database to tell us what is going on in the housing markets across the US?
Here's a prime example of the problem that this poses.
Market Time Study By NARFor years, I have … (6 comments)

nar: NAR Says Worst Is Behind Us ... Do You Believe Dr. Yun This Time? - 03/28/12 10:57 PM
What can I say, but it's that time of the month again, time for us to review the Pending Home Sales Report from the National Association of REALTORS®.
Historically, this housing report has been a measurement compiled by NAR and then used to proclaim the housing market "stronger than ever," but I suspect the public might be on to the cheer leading efforts of Dr. Yun.
The Pending Home Sales Report is a forward-looking report, as it measures the number of contracts in the MLS, not actual real estate closings. But we know that future sales will likely be a subset … (6 comments)

nar: How We Know The Real Estate Market Is Weakening Despite What NAR Is Reporting - 01/12/12 01:52 AM
Anybody who follows the real estate market knows that the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) recently announced that they had been over-stating sales (oops) since 2007.
Some people were quick to point out that this announcement means the housing market is doing worse than previously thought, but there might be another reason for this well-timed announcement from NAR.
Could it be that NAR sees this as a way to avoid reporting a new market bottom? You see, if we can make the past look worse, won't that make the present look better? This is not as far-fetched of an idea as … (2 comments)

nar: New Report Warns Of Slowing Home Sales In Q1 2012 - 12/28/11 01:16 AM
If you study new contracts in the Tallahassee MLS every day, and plot their performance over time, you often are able to produce short-term forecasts for home sales that are relatively accurate. With that in mind, the pending home sales report (new contracts) is projecting a slower 1st Quarter for 2012 than we saw in 2011.
The following real estate graph measures long and short term trends for pending home sales in the Tallahassee housing market. The short term trend analysis usually gives us a glimpse at what the long-term trend will be doing in the next few weeks and months.

nar: Can We Really Trust The National Association Of REALTORS When They Revise Their Home Sales Figures? - 12/15/11 01:24 AM
Late Tuesday after, CNBC reported that the National Association Of Realtors released a statement acknowledging that their home sales reports have been OVER-COUNTED since January of 2007. That means everybody who relies on REALTOR reports for the US housing markets now knows that things are worse than they previously thought. Who would have thought such a thing could occur? [insert dripping sarcasm tone]
All the sales and inventory data that have been reported since January 2007 are being downwardly revised. Sales were weaker than people thought -NAR spokesman Walter Malony
Basically, the NAR does not cull all of the home sales … (14 comments)

nar: New Purchase Agreements Show Housing Market Declining - 12/01/11 01:21 AM
According to the National Association of REALTORS®, pending home sales rose 18% from September to October and rose 3% over October 2010. As we have mentioned in previous posts, a home sale is classified as "pending" when a purchase agreement has been signed but the transaction has not yet closed, and typically the sale closes within one or two months of signing. The Pending Home Sales Index thus allows our readers to anticipate the market movement over the next few months.
In the South, pending home sales rose 8.6% from September to October and rose 9.7% above October 2010. In Tallahassee, pending … (0 comments)

nar: Why Pending Home Sales Are The Most Current Test Of The Housing Market - 11/23/11 04:47 AM
When you want the quickest and most current report on real estate, you must turn to the pending home sales report. The Pending Home Sales Index published by the National Association of REALTORS runs 25 to 30 days after the data has been recorded, whereas the Tallahassee Pending Home Sales Report is published frequently, with only a 2 day lag in the data.
Fortunately for those readers outside of the Tallahassee housing market, our information often parallels its counterpart report on real estate across the entire US. Tallahassee appears to be a comparable microcosm of the US housing market, thus our … (4 comments)

nar: Is NAR Wrong On Contract Cancellations? - 11/11/11 02:22 AM
When we study the homes for sale in Tallahassee and its surrounding communities, we find a trend that is often mentioned by Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of REALTORS®. Dr. Yun has been reported a rising trend in the number of real estate contracts that fail to close, and the Tallahassee Area MLS supports his findings.
Dr. Yun attributes much of the housing woes to new lending standards that make it more difficult to finance a home, and he uses the statistical trend of contract cancellations as evidence of the difficulty to obtain financing. I am not … (2 comments)

nar: September Existing Home Sales Improve 22% Over Last Year - 10/25/11 02:26 AM
The National Association of REALTORS® released the October edition of the Existing Home Sales Report a few days ago, revealing a rise in year-over-year home sales across the US. September's closing were below August in a typical seasonal change, but the fact that 2011 out-performed 2010 is very good news for a weary real estate market.
Not surprisingly, Tallahassee had the same market activity in this month's report. September's 170 closed existing home sales was down 13% from the 196 posted in August, but up 22% over the 139 closed resales from last year.
Existing Home Sales With Average Prices When … (0 comments)

nar: Don't Worry, NAR's Yun Says This Is Just Temporary - 06/24/11 01:40 AM
I just finished reading the most recent Existing Home Sales Report by Dr. Yun (chief spin-master for the National Association Of REALTORS®) and was not surprised to see the normal bending and twisting of the housing data to form a “why things are improving” article on real estate. But I was surprised at his conclusion that the problems in the real estate market are temporary.
Just to make sure that my less than stellar grasp of the English language was not failing me, I quickly Googled the term “temporary” to make sure I understood what it really meant:
temporary [ˈtɛmpərərɪ ˈtɛmprərɪ] … (10 comments)

nar: Yun Seeks Mortgage Standards To "Return To Normal" - 04/28/11 12:38 AM

Holy cow, I have to agree with Lawrence Yun on quite a few points that he made during the release of the monthly  Existing Home Sales Report last week. Dr. Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS® explained that existing home sales in March were down compared to March of last year, and there exists more than 8 months of supply of homes for sale at a national level.
As we know from our own Tallahassee housing reports, 5 to 6 months of supply are considered a balanced market and anything higher than that produces a buyer’s market and … (8 comments)

nar: Why You Can't Possibly Listen To What They Say Now - 02/23/11 11:58 PM
They say that now is the time to buy (if they have something to sell). They say two out of three aint bad. They say that “where there’s a will, there’s a way,” but I suspect that this is just a marketing conspiracy created by estate attorneys.
They say that the early bird gets the worm (but my son Max asked “what about the worm?”). They say that 80% of the work is done by 20% of the people (which I have disproved for the real estate profession in an analysis of closed sales two years ago). They say that “love … (23 comments)

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Joe Manausa

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Tallahassee, FL

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