real estate forecast: Fact-Based Forecast For 2021 Housing Market
- 01/13/21 03:59 AM
Are you curious about what will happen in the 2021 housing market? There are so many articles and videos forecasting the 2021 market, many of which use shocking headlines about a coming "real estate market crash" that I felt it would be good to produce a fact-based housing market forecast. In this video, I summarize how the market performed last year, look at current supply and demand ratios, assess the major variables impacting the market, and then conclude with a reasonable expectation from that analysis. Let's just stick with the facts! Real Estate Market Forecast 2021Please remember to "like" the post and the video … (8 comments)
real estate forecast: How To Forecast The Housing Market's Future
- 02/09/11 02:42 AM
If anybody claims to have a scientific method to forecast the future of the real estate market, I have yet to see it. I have devised my own version of "real estate math" in the hopes developing a model that will bring about accurate reports for near and long term expectations for trends in the housing market. I believe I have made some progress, as my blog post in 2008 (click to see 2008 real estate forecast) has done a good job thus far in forecasting home sales in Tallahassee. Real estate math is just a term that I use to … (0 comments)
real estate forecast: How To Use A Housing Herd Barometer
- 08/04/10 02:01 AM
The herd mentality in real estate is often funny at times. Experts pop up and spout their sage truths, and everybody seems to follow suit until a new prophet (or profit) arrives. So, in order to help our readers know just which direction the market is heading, I have created the Manausa Housing Herd Barometer which can be employed in any market, at any time, to determine what is going to be happening next. Avoid The Housing Herd In Real Estate As we observe in the graphic above, an extreme in any of the housing market cycles are caused by … (3 comments)
real estate forecast: Single Family Detached Home Value Forecast
- 04/15/10 12:40 AM
Tallahassee single family detached home prices have been trending down since their values peaked at $222K in April of 2007. Today, the one-year trend of average single family detached home prices in Leon County has fallen to $191K, but we still are much higher than historic sales levels indicate where we should be. In the real estate graph below, we can see how significant the rise in prices were starting in 2003. The orange line in the graph below shows the pace of growth in the average price of a single family detached home during the 1990s, yet we blew way … (2 comments)
real estate forecast: Forecast Home Sales With REALTOR.com Report
- 10/28/09 01:19 AM
I am always looking for ways to discover earlier signs of impending movements in the Tallahassee real estate market. The key to forecasting the future is knowing the “natural order of things” and then looking for the first signs of the first steps in the process. The best forecasters build models, based upon the end-state that they are seeking, and them work them backwards, always seeking for clues of earliest signs. For example, we could create a simple model like this:
Home Sales In Tallahassee This shows the hierarchy of what must occur for us to see a turn … (6 comments)
real estate forecast: Forecasting Your Housing Market
- 10/14/09 12:04 AM
Forecasting changes in the Tallahassee real estate market is part art, part science, and of course, a whole lot of experience. Knowing the past history of the market (by measuring long-term trends) helps us get an idea of where the market likes to be. But knowing what current buyer expectations and seller motivations (by working with customers buying and selling real estate) tell us short-term trend expectations. It is when we combine these that the art of the real estate forecast (we hope) is created. Past History Of The Real Estate Market If you are a regular reader of the … (4 comments)
real estate forecast: Be Wary Of Most Opinions On The Housing Market
- 09/22/09 11:02 PM
I was helping one of our CENTURY 21 real estate agents explain current market conditions to a customer the other day and I was locked into a debate on current and future trends in the Tallahassee housing market. This customer is very intelligent and has been a builder in the Tallahassee housing market for many, many years. He expressed that “all of his friends in real estate” believed the market was rebounding and that homes were already starting to appreciate. Obviously, I disagreed. Like his friends in real estate, I wish the housing market had returned to appreciation, but it is … (4 comments)
real estate forecast: Real Estate Forecast With A 99% Confidence Level
- 03/02/09 09:18 PM
In case you have not heard, we published our 3rd Edition of the Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter. If you are not already on our exclusive subscription list, you can join for free in the form http://www.manausa.com/market-newsletterhome.php. All it takes is a name and an email, and you’ll receive the most analytical report of the Tallahassee real estate market that can be found. I will start today’s blog by saying you will want to bookmark this page immediately. In January of next year, when the 2009 home sales numbers have been posted, you will be able to come back here in order … (2 comments)
real estate forecast: A Model To Predict Future Home Sales
- 02/12/09 08:01 AM
I wrote a blog article last year about predicting future home sales based upon a correlation between population growth and home sales. I was/am trying to create a model that should demonstrate, over time, the amount of sales we should expect in the Tallahassee real estate market. Today I am going to update that model with new information. I want to invite your feedback, criticism, support or arguments in any capacity to help move this model forward. I suspect that with enough feedback, we might be able to build a workable model that should identify future home sales to a fairly … (0 comments)
real estate forecast: All The Buzz About The 2009 Housing Market
- 01/15/09 08:15 AM
The buzz around town (at least in my Tallahassee Real Estate world) is everybody speculating about what the Tallahassee housing market is going to do this year. In yesterday’s blog, I summarized Dr. Hank Fishkind’s 2009 Real Estate Forecast for the State of Florida, as well as what his expectations are for the Tallahassee real estate market. We will go into great detail about his findings in our newsletter (click here for The Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter). But just as I pointed out last year, Fishkind uses numbers that differ with mine. If you are a regular reader of the … (2 comments)
Are you curious about what will happen in the 2021 housing market?
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