John Lake's (johnlake2) Blog

We prepare for Thanksgiving, family and the start of the holiday season with a side a data. In the past 2 days we have seen several reports with fresh and delayed data from the shutdown. In my last blog Short Week, Big Data I provided a menu of of impactful economic reports that would change the ...

As we kick off the holiday season, next week is the last week of the month. Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving is the last day in November. (Friday is technically the last day but most municipalities that record deeds are closed) Don't kick back and plan your holiday menu or Black Friday shop...

What a difference a day makes, 24 little hours. So true. Yesterday we received the BLS Jobs Report for September and it was a mixed bag. There was 119,000 jobs created, which exceeded expectations of 50,000.The unemployment rate went up from 4.3% to 4.4 (side note the BLS rounds using the 3rd dig...

As we approach the end of 2025 and look towards 2026, the time is upon us to forecast the markets. The Real Estate market has been below average and flat for the past three years hovering around 4 million units. That is below the average of 5 to 5.5 million units in a stable market.Yesterday the ...

We're open for Business! Now what?We are playing catch up with economic data. We started the week with some Fed speak. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson in a speech was noncommittal on the upcoming meeting, but hedged a little by saying economic trade-offs (slightly higher inflation ...

Yesterday was a historic day. After 43 days of shut down the government is open. The signing of the bill opens the government for 78 days!!!!! Here is an estimated timeline of what reports will impact mortgage rates and when we could see them. BUCKLE UP!Consumer Pricing Index CPI the report for O...

Recently the Government has floated a idea of a 50 Year mortgage. Is that a good  or a bad idea. Even before looking at the numbers, the government would need to change the Qualified vs. the Non-Qualified mortgage rules. A Qualified Mortgage (QM) is a mortgage that meets specific guidelines that ...

Last Friday we should have gotten the jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. If Only? So we must rely on other data. Remember the Fed has shifted focus from inflation to employment. Inflation has come down since COVID and is within  1% of the Fed's 2% comfort zone. It is moving at a gla...

As we enter November here are very important movers and impacts to Mortgage rates. Please check out this 2 part series. I am saving the scariest for last. By the way NO-ONE is talking about. Government shut down.We are 1 month plus into the shut down. People have lost food benefits. Flying is an ...