economy: Federal Reserve Meeting Summary - 07/30/26 07:51 AM
At the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve voted 9–3 to keep the benchmark interest rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75%.
The decision and its impact on mortgage rates are detailed below:

Short-Term Impact: Rates Hold Steady
No Immediate Spike or Drop: Because markets largely anticipated the rate pause, mortgage rates are expected to remain near current levels in the immediate term rather than shift dramatically. Bond Yield Reaction: Fixed-rate mortgages track long-term benchmark bond yields (primarily the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield). Following the press conference with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, Treasury yields saw minor … (3 comments)

economy: Today's Federal Reserve Meeting - 07/29/26 05:03 AM
 
Scenario 1: The Fed Holds Rates Steady  Financial markets widely anticipate that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will keep the federal funds rate at its current 3.5% to 3.75% range.  Immediate Impact: If a pause occurs, mortgage rates will likely move sideways or experience a mild, temporary stabilization. Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates currently sit at 6.58%—their highest point in nearly a year—and a pause will not give them a reason to fall.  The "Warsh Effect": Under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, the Fed has intentionally scaled back its forward guidance, leaving investors guessing. If the post-meeting statement or the … (1 comments)

economy: Yesterday's Federal Reserve Meeting Recap - 06/18/26 05:10 AM
Yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting (Wednesday, June 17, 2026) brought a major structural shift that is putting immediate upward pressure on mortgage rates.
While the Fed did exactly what was expected by keeping the benchmark federal funds rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75%, the true market mover was the surprisingly aggressive, hawkish pivot in their future projections. This was Kevin Warsh’s first official meeting as Fed Chair, and he made it clear that the central bank is shifting gears.
The policy shift is impacting the mortgage rate market through several distinct channels:
The Dot Plot Flipped from Cuts to HikesThe biggest shock … (3 comments)

economy: A massive, shift in the financial markets! (Maybe) - 06/16/26 05:39 AM
We are staring at a massive, double-barreled shift in the financial markets. The convergence of a geopolitical breakthrough (the end of the war with Iran) and a structural regime change at the central bank (Chairman Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting this week) creates a unique environment for mortgage rates.
Historically, these two forces would work in opposite directions, but together, they are likely to bring substantial volatility followed by a significant downward trajectory for mortgage rates heading into the summer.
Here is exactly how these two massive events will ripple through the bond market and impact your pipeline:
1. The End of the War … (1 comments)

economy: Mortgage Rate Outlook - 06/10/26 05:46 AM
We are currently navigating a "higher-for-longer" rate environment, and the crystal ball for the rest of 2026 is tightly tethered to inflation data and Federal Reserve policy.
After the volatility we saw following the hot CPI/PPI reports and the Fed's firm holding pattern at their late-April meeting, the market has settled into a predictable, data-dependent rhythm.
Here is the outlook for where mortgage rates are heading as we move into the summer and back half of 2026:
1. Short-Term Forecast (Next 30–60 Days): Ceiling & Stability We have likely seen the peak for the first half of the year. When the … (2 comments)

economy: Refinancing isn't always about a lower rate. - 05/20/26 06:31 AM
Whether you should refinance right now depends on two factors: what your current rate is and what you’re trying to achieve.
With today's 30-year refinance rates averaging around 6.81% (as of May 18, 2026), the strategy has changed compared to last year. Here is how to decide if the timing is right for you.
The "1% Rule" Still AppliesMost experts suggest that for a "Rate and Term" refinance to make sense, you should be able to lower your current rate by at least 0.75% to 1%.
If your current rate is 7.5% or higher: You are in the "sweet spot." Moving to … (1 comments)

economy: Is the war and inflation hurting my chances to refinance my mortgage? - 04/13/26 07:22 AM
It’s completely understandable to feel some frustration right now. After the progress we saw in February, the market has certainly thrown a curveball. The short answer is: it’s making the timing more challenging, but it hasn’t closed the door entirely.
As of today, April 13, 2026, here is how those two factors are specifically impacting your refinance math:
The "Inflation Tax" on RatesInflation is the natural enemy of mortgage bonds. When the conflict in Iran pushed oil prices toward $110 a barrel, it acted like a "tax" on everything from gas to groceries.
The Impact: Because the market expects this to keep … (2 comments)

economy: When Should I refinance? - 04/01/26 06:50 AM
Whether it is a "good" time to refinance depends entirely on your current interest rate and your long-term goals. As of April 1, 2026, the market is in a very specific, volatile place.
After dipping to 5.98% in Early March, the 30-year fixed refinance rate has drifted back up to an average of 6.78% – 6.85% due to the ongoing conflict in Iran and rising oil prices.
Here is the breakdown to help you decide:
The "1% Rule"
With 30 years of experience, I usually tell clients that a refinance starts making sense when you can lower your current rate by at least 0.75% to … (0 comments)

economy: Loose Lips Sink Markets - 03/25/26 11:10 AM
If there’s one word defining the market right now, it’s Volatility.
Lately, it seems the market is being driven by headlines and 'loose lips' rather than actual economic data. Just look at the rollercoaster we’ve been on since last Friday:
The Global Spark: European central banks hinted at raising rates, and world markets immediately tanked. The Monday Rally: Our government stated they were in talks with Iran to resolve the conflict. Rates dropped, and the market rallied. The Tuesday Reversal: The Iranian Government denied those talks ever happened. Rates shot back up, and markets dipped. Today’s 15-Point Plan: Today, reports of a … (4 comments)

economy: The Cost of War - 03/19/26 06:44 AM
We are currently seeing the 'Cost of Conflict' translate directly into the economy and home affordability.
Despite global efforts to release oil reserves, crude prices have surged—Brent is up over 55% since the conflict began, climbing above $113 a barrel. At the pump, we’ve seen prices jump over $1.00 a gallon, which will inevitably spike shipping and diesel costs for almost every consumer good.
The Fed’s "Uncertainty" Problem Yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting did little to calm the markets. In fact, the Chairman used the word 'Uncertainty' seven times. This lack of a defined goal for the conflict has sent markets into a sell-off:
… (0 comments)

economy: What is Happening? WTC vs. WTF - 03/09/26 08:24 AM
This is a critical moment for the market. As of today, March 9, 2026, we are seeing a classic "geopolitical tug-of-war" that has ended our brief stay in the 5% range. After a "flash sale" last week where rates dipped to 5.98%, the start of the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran on February 28th has pushed the 30-year fixed rate back up to an average of 6.13% - 6.17%.
Here is the breakdown of why this is happening and what you need to know:

The Oil Shock vs. The Safe HavenTypically, war causes a "Flight to Quality" where investors buy bonds, … (2 comments)

economy: 📉 Market Update: Are we finally approaching the "Dip"? - 02/27/26 08:57 AM
Today’s economic data was a bit of a rollercoaster. We received the Producer Price Index (PPI) report for January, and the numbers came in higher than expected across the board:
Headline PPI: Increased 0.5% month-over-month (vs. 0.3% expected).
Core PPI: Increased 0.8% month-over-month (vs. 0.3% expected).
While higher producer prices usually signal inflation, the market’s reaction was surprising: we saw a significant stock sell-off, which paradoxically caused the 10-year Treasury yield to drop below 4%. This has placed immediate downward pressure on mortgage rates—a "silver lining" for anyone waiting for an entry point.
📅 The Week Ahead: The "Big Test"Next week is … (3 comments)

economy: 🎬 Seen the Movie, Know How It Ends: The Groundhog Day of Jobs Reports - 02/23/26 08:54 AM
Wow, what a week. It feels like 2025 all over again!
The BLS jobs report was just released, and we’ve heard this tune before. In January 2025, the jobs report came in at double the expectations. Guess what happened with the January 2026 report? You guessed it—doubled expectations again.
The data claims we added more jobs in January than in the previous nine months combined. I don’t recall anything "super" happening in January to justify that spike! If history is our guide, over the next three months, we will likely see "quiet" downward revisions until that number is back in line with reality.
The … (1 comments)

economy: Is Your Mortgage Made in China? - 02/10/26 06:58 AM
This news item piqued my interest. It involves China's role in the US economy. Specifically, the news that China is slowing its purchase of US Treasuries (US Debt) often sparks fear of a rate spike. So I did some research,
The Reality of China's "Exit"
China’s holdings of US Treasuries have fallen to approximately $680 billion, down significantly from their $1.3 trillion peak over a decade ago. Is this a "fire sale" is it a strategic shift? Is it a prelude to something else?
Reserve Diversification: China is moving assets into other currencies and clearing systems (like those in Belgium and the UK) … (1 comments)

economy: Mortgage Market Update February 9th - 02/09/26 11:09 AM
As we move into the second week of February 2026, the Equities market has reached a significant psychological and financial milestone. For the first time, the Dow Jones has broken 50,000. We saw the market raise over 1,200 point Friday, while the Bond market and Mortgage Back Securities were flat.
 📉 This Week’s Market Catalyst: The Wednesday BLS Report and Friday Inflation Test
While rates are currently stable, the "big test" arrives this Wednesday and Friday (February 13th). The market is bracing for the latest inflation and the BLS Jobst report.
The Bull Case: If inflation data comes in softer than expected, combined … (0 comments)

economy: Rates are Heading back UP, but Why? - 01/20/26 06:51 AM
We had some good times lately, but is the party over? This market is like a Paula Abdul song, "I take 2 steps forward, I take THREE steps back!" But why?
The economic data and fundamentals are pointing towards lower rates.
Employment numbers December showed 50,000 jobs added Less than market expected. 
Consumer Pricing Index (CPI) rose slightly, inline with expectations
Producer Price Index (PPI) Flat Inline with expectations
We get GDP and CPE this week
The Fed shifted attention towards a weakening jobs market so we should see a drop in rates. In addition to Freddie and Fannie buying Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) at about 20 … (0 comments)

economy: On Your Mark, Get Set, WAIT!!! - 01/12/26 07:06 AM
It is a good time to start the conversation and keep an eye on rates. The administration has a couple of impactful policies that may bring rates down. They also have a couple of impactful policies that are pushing rates upward.
 Good news
They have instructed Fannie and Freddie to start buying 20 billion dollars’ worth of Mortgage-Backed Securities a month that will push rates lower
They want credit card interest rates capped at 10% for a year
 Bad News
Initiated a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman for the expense related to renovating the Federal Reserve Building. The market today does not like that in … (4 comments)

economy: Fed Meeting only 1 week away - 12/03/25 09:34 AM
I hope everyone enjoyed there holiday weekend. ALLOT OF US WENT SHOPPING! That was bad. Give the gift of something you already don't want in your house. Too late. The results from Black Friday to Cyber Monday beat expectations and showed the consumer is resilient and caused the rate market to give back pre-Thanksgiving gains. 
That might have given the Fed an excuse to pause in rate cuts. As we all know from my previous blogs that the vote for a December rate cut is close, with several Governors on the fence. 
Today we got ADP Payroll numbers. It was predicted to add … (2 comments)

economy: Numbers Traveling in for the Holiday. - 11/26/25 07:39 AM
We prepare for Thanksgiving, family and the start of the holiday season with a side a data. In the past 2 days we have seen several reports with fresh and delayed data from the shutdown. In my last blog Short Week, Big Data I provided a menu of of impactful economic reports that would change the debt market. Lets look at what has happened.  
Consumer confidence hits a low point as job worries grow
Core Wholesale Prices(PPI) rose less than expected 
Retail sales softer than forecasted
Losses in private payroll are accelerating over the last 4 weeks (ADP)
Initial Jobless claims rose 5,000 last week
This is pointing … (3 comments)

economy: Short week, big data! - 11/23/25 05:36 AM
As we kick off the holiday season, next week is the last week of the month. Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving is the last day in November. (Friday is technically the last day but most municipalities that record deeds are closed) 
Don't kick back and plan your holiday menu or Black Friday shopping strategy, because there is a ton of Economic data that will impact interest rates.
In the spirit of Thanksgiving here is your Holiday Data Menu 
Appetizer
Monday
2 year Note Auction 
Main Courses
Tuesday 
ADP Employment Report
PPI (Producer Price Index)
Retail Sales
Case Schiller Home Price Index
FHFA Home Price Index
Pending Home Sales
5 yr Note Auction
Wednesday
Weekly Jobless Claims
Beige … (5 comments)